In historical terms, just how screwed is the country?
Discussion
We all know that Blair and Brown have done their level best to completely destroy our economy, but how good a job have they actually done to it in comparison with previous attempts?
From my limited understanding of economic history, we were, to use a technical term, utterly buggered after WW2, and my own memories of growing up in the Seventies are filled with power cuts, strikes and visits to the IMF for help.
No doubt we've also been there before in the past, so just how buggered are we currently? We have all the scaremongering about just how many tens of thousands of pounds per taxpayer have been used to bail banks out, but that could presumably even turn a profit depending on how much their assets are worth when they're eventually sold back to the private sector, so what is the actual reality of our current condition as a nation compared to previous difficult periods?
Please avoid the desire to take up page after page ranting about Blair, Brown, the EU or any of the usual rants that have been done to death time after time! I'm just interested in knowing what the true state of the nation is once all the sensationalism has been stripped away.
From my limited understanding of economic history, we were, to use a technical term, utterly buggered after WW2, and my own memories of growing up in the Seventies are filled with power cuts, strikes and visits to the IMF for help.
No doubt we've also been there before in the past, so just how buggered are we currently? We have all the scaremongering about just how many tens of thousands of pounds per taxpayer have been used to bail banks out, but that could presumably even turn a profit depending on how much their assets are worth when they're eventually sold back to the private sector, so what is the actual reality of our current condition as a nation compared to previous difficult periods?
Please avoid the desire to take up page after page ranting about Blair, Brown, the EU or any of the usual rants that have been done to death time after time! I'm just interested in knowing what the true state of the nation is once all the sensationalism has been stripped away.
Where we are most screwed is in the public finances. I don't think most people realise just how bad things are, and how historically unprecedented.
You mentioned the 70s when we had to go begging to the IMF, but the deficit then was half what it is now.
Even after the 2nd world war wasn't the same situation. Debt was far higher as a percentage of GDP of course, but once spending on the war was over and the economy was returned to a peacetime footing there wasn't a great deal of action required to balance the books.
Even if growth returns we are looking a massive deficits year after year until action is taken. Raising the retirement age and freezing public sector pay, as the Tories propose, is just merely a start in what needs to be done.
You mentioned the 70s when we had to go begging to the IMF, but the deficit then was half what it is now.
Even after the 2nd world war wasn't the same situation. Debt was far higher as a percentage of GDP of course, but once spending on the war was over and the economy was returned to a peacetime footing there wasn't a great deal of action required to balance the books.
Even if growth returns we are looking a massive deficits year after year until action is taken. Raising the retirement age and freezing public sector pay, as the Tories propose, is just merely a start in what needs to be done.
eldar said:
No mass starvation, european wars, children working down mines.
Free education, health service, good housing.
We are not screwed by any means, just suffering from a more incompetent management than usual.
Oh, I certainly accept that. In the grand scheme of things, we're not at all screwed.Free education, health service, good housing.
We are not screwed by any means, just suffering from a more incompetent management than usual.
It's more that I have no doubt we're not the first generation to be talking about all the crippling debts that our children's children's children will still be paying back a century from how, and yet we don't currently seem to be too crippled by the efforts of those previous generations.
Realistically speaking, it's a "comparative mess". We're still far better than most countries but with human nature the more we get, the more we think we're entitled to. (and I include myself in that)
I grew up in the 60s, remember the Harold Wilson famous "the pound in your pocket isn't devalued" speech, my folks didn't have a car and neither did anyone in our street. We were astounded when one of my uncles actually BOUGHT their house !
Starting work in the 70s I remember factories closing through power cuts, wondering if I would still have a job, etc, etc. In the 80s I recall our mortgage interest hitting 14% and wondering how we'd manage.
And now I'm really screwed up about how I'm going to afford the insurance on our 4th classic car..... yeah, we're not that badly off when you take a long hard look at it all.
But happy tales don't sell papers, doom and gloom does !
I grew up in the 60s, remember the Harold Wilson famous "the pound in your pocket isn't devalued" speech, my folks didn't have a car and neither did anyone in our street. We were astounded when one of my uncles actually BOUGHT their house !
Starting work in the 70s I remember factories closing through power cuts, wondering if I would still have a job, etc, etc. In the 80s I recall our mortgage interest hitting 14% and wondering how we'd manage.
And now I'm really screwed up about how I'm going to afford the insurance on our 4th classic car..... yeah, we're not that badly off when you take a long hard look at it all.
But happy tales don't sell papers, doom and gloom does !
Kermit power said:
eldar said:
No mass starvation, european wars, children working down mines.
Free education, health service, good housing.
We are not screwed by any means, just suffering from a more incompetent management than usual.
Oh, I certainly accept that. In the grand scheme of things, we're not at all screwed.Free education, health service, good housing.
We are not screwed by any means, just suffering from a more incompetent management than usual.
It's more that I have no doubt we're not the first generation to be talking about all the crippling debts that our children's children's children will still be paying back a century from how, and yet we don't currently seem to be too crippled by the efforts of those previous generations.
At the moment our economy is distinctly unhealthy, and in political terms there doesn't appear to any political party that is going to be able to resolve it quickly.
I suspect things will be relatively uncomfortable for a decade or so as the world economy recovers to a greater or lesser extent.
Then the next crisis will appear.
Having had a period in which we spent more than we earned, we now need to have a period in which we earn more than we spend in order to balance the books.
At the end of the Second World War we had a strong and efficient industrial base. This was no longer needed for the production of armaments and could be rapidly converted to manufacturing export goods.
The motto was ‘export or die’. You could get a job making cars, but you couldn’t easily buy one since they were all being exported. Austerity at home plus overseas earnings balanced the books.
We were able to export because there was little competition. The infrastructure of most European countries had been demolished. They therefore lacked the capacity to rebuild themselves and had to import it from us. They weren’t greatly exporting to compete with us.
The Far East was a joke. Japan was flattened. China and the other tiger economies were a distant dream. Only Hong Kong produced stuff. The quality was so bad that ‘made in Hong Kong’ on a label almost guaranteed it wouldn’t sell. It all had to be labelled ‘Empire made’
Only America provided any real competition, but we could do it cheaper. Today there is virtually no UK manufacturing base. You ether need to be better, or cheaper than the competition and we fall flat on both counts.
Any government will need something to work with. Whoever forms the next government will find that lacking.
We have been skint before. The big difference is this time we are skint and jobless. Worse still, we have largely become a nation of unemployable chav’s.
At the end of the Second World War we had a strong and efficient industrial base. This was no longer needed for the production of armaments and could be rapidly converted to manufacturing export goods.
The motto was ‘export or die’. You could get a job making cars, but you couldn’t easily buy one since they were all being exported. Austerity at home plus overseas earnings balanced the books.
We were able to export because there was little competition. The infrastructure of most European countries had been demolished. They therefore lacked the capacity to rebuild themselves and had to import it from us. They weren’t greatly exporting to compete with us.
The Far East was a joke. Japan was flattened. China and the other tiger economies were a distant dream. Only Hong Kong produced stuff. The quality was so bad that ‘made in Hong Kong’ on a label almost guaranteed it wouldn’t sell. It all had to be labelled ‘Empire made’
Only America provided any real competition, but we could do it cheaper. Today there is virtually no UK manufacturing base. You ether need to be better, or cheaper than the competition and we fall flat on both counts.
Any government will need something to work with. Whoever forms the next government will find that lacking.
We have been skint before. The big difference is this time we are skint and jobless. Worse still, we have largely become a nation of unemployable chav’s.
Uncle Fester said:
Today there is virtually no UK manufacturing base. You ether need to be better, or cheaper than the competition and we fall flat on both counts.
So the Daily Mail would have us believe, anyway.The reality, as so often, is somewhat different. OK, we're not the world powerhouse that we were at the height of Empire, and we might not have an unskilled manufacturing industry any more, but that's not the same as saying we don't have a manufacturing industry.
In 1995, we were the 7th largest manufacturer in the World, accounting for 5.03% of the total value of goods produced by the top 10 manufacturing economies.
By 2007, we were still the 7th largest manufacturer, and had increased our share of the top 10 to 5.4%.
OK, that might not seem like much, but considering that the US, Germany, France and Japan all lost share (primarily to China & Russia), one might argue that reports of the death of the British manufacturing sector are slightly premature.
rocksteadyeddie said:
Of course the industry where we are absolutely world leading is finance. You know, the one the employs the devil and his brother? Sadly, the press and government seem hell bent on doing all they can to put us at a competitive disadvantage there too. 
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fund ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Edited by rypt on Saturday 28th November 12:56
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
You bought shares, or gave a loan with collateral and made money from the returns on that.
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
You bought shares, or gave a loan with collateral and made money from the returns on that.
BTW There is nothing wrong with value investing. Lots of people have done, and continue to do, very well out of it, and good luck to them
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
You bought shares, or gave a loan with collateral and made money from the returns on that.
BTW There is nothing wrong with value investing. Lots of people have done, and continue to do, very well out of it, and good luck to them
So that when you invest (ie buy shares), you are doing so because you believe that you can earn money from this over the medium (to long) term as you agree in the direction the company is headed, not because you think that the share price will go up by £1 today and thus you can make a quick profit.
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
You bought shares, or gave a loan with collateral and made money from the returns on that.
BTW There is nothing wrong with value investing. Lots of people have done, and continue to do, very well out of it, and good luck to them
So that when you invest (ie buy shares), you are doing so because you believe that you can earn money from this over the medium (to long) term as you agree in the direction the company is headed, not because you think that the share price will go up by £1 today and thus you can make a quick profit.
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
rocksteadyeddie said:
rypt said:
The finance industry has grown out of hand, where they are making money on the act of making money.
The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
Back to the Daily Wail website please. You clearly have NO idea what you are talking about. The whole finance sector was envisaged as a means to fun ventures via stakes in companies (shares) or loans - it was NOT supposed to become a whole industry which makes money from buying and selling shares 100 times a day for small profits that all add up. It was not supposed to become something that gambles money on whether a stock rises or falls, or something that short sells stocks etc.
I would love to see a law passed that means you have to hold a stock for at least 90 days after purchase before you sell it, a law that also outlaws betting on the stock market and takes the whole system back towards meaningful investment.
You bought shares, or gave a loan with collateral and made money from the returns on that.
BTW There is nothing wrong with value investing. Lots of people have done, and continue to do, very well out of it, and good luck to them
So that when you invest (ie buy shares), you are doing so because you believe that you can earn money from this over the medium (to long) term as you agree in the direction the company is headed, not because you think that the share price will go up by £1 today and thus you can make a quick profit.
Historically the UK topped up its treasury coffers with effective invasion/colonisation and taxation techniques and then traded. There is now nothing left thanks to Messrs Blair and Brown due to the failing 'new' labour attempt at conservatism.
Who do you think is behind all this ...."Sell us your Gold" bullsh!t?
We ARE firked, the UK economy is firked beyond any previous low, even after previous 'slumps' and the great depression of the 30's we were able to recover through manufacturing and trading. As we have virtually zero manufacturing left and those who are employed are funding the 'all comers' and resident spongers we are currently left in a position of unprecedented firked-upness.
Not since French Bill came over have the working/lower classes been left in such a dire straits
Who do you think is behind all this ...."Sell us your Gold" bullsh!t?
We ARE firked, the UK economy is firked beyond any previous low, even after previous 'slumps' and the great depression of the 30's we were able to recover through manufacturing and trading. As we have virtually zero manufacturing left and those who are employed are funding the 'all comers' and resident spongers we are currently left in a position of unprecedented firked-upness.
Not since French Bill came over have the working/lower classes been left in such a dire straits
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