The housing market - (when) will it pick up?
Discussion
My view is that the economic factors (if not conditions yet) are still the same as they always were and thus it will remain cyclical and return to prosperity in due course.
But when?
2010? Well, I can't see any signs of it as we sit here now. Can you? When do you think it will start to get a bit better?
But when?
2010? Well, I can't see any signs of it as we sit here now. Can you? When do you think it will start to get a bit better?
Jim Shoulder said:
My view is that the economic factors (if not conditions yet) are still the same as they always were and thus it will remain cyclical and return to prosperity in due course.
But when?
2010? Well, I can't see any signs of it as we sit here now. Can you? When do you think it will start to get a bit better?
Cycles, you say? There's a 200 page thread on that (see Anyone work in the city?). As for when, there's a thread on that (see 400k investment).But when?
2010? Well, I can't see any signs of it as we sit here now. Can you? When do you think it will start to get a bit better?
ETA: http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Edited by ShadownINja on Tuesday 29th December 18:58
fesuvious said:
Yes, cylical.
The bottom of this run was June this year. Now it'll increase over the next 24>28 months.
Next downturn 2013. But ebven if you bought in the next 4-6 months you'll still be quids in assuming you will get a mortgage as the rates now will be WAY lower than you'll get then.
are you an estate agent?The bottom of this run was June this year. Now it'll increase over the next 24>28 months.
Next downturn 2013. But ebven if you bought in the next 4-6 months you'll still be quids in assuming you will get a mortgage as the rates now will be WAY lower than you'll get then.
Japan is still 75% down on it's hieght 20 years ago, with unemployment set to continue rising by 250K next year, and the post election clampdown on spending which will be brutal for many peoples incomes, with interest rates set to rise at the same time and the cost of energy set to rise also, what makes you think we are set for or can afford any growth in house prices in the next decade?
The recession seems to be wriggling through most markets. The housing market has not really been hit other than a lack of sales. House prices do not seem to have reduced by enough. Ultimately the house price bubble and resulting over debt is the cause of this recession. I personally believe once the recession has wriggled its way back to its cause “The housing market” will people have the confidence to believe the recession is truly over.
fesuvious said:
Yes, cylical.
The bottom of this run was June this year. Now it'll increase over the next 24>28 months.
Next downturn 2013. But ebven if you bought in the next 4-6 months you'll still be quids in assuming you will get a mortgage as the rates now will be WAY lower than you'll get then.
Mystic Meg?? Whats the lottery numbers tomorrow?The bottom of this run was June this year. Now it'll increase over the next 24>28 months.
Next downturn 2013. But ebven if you bought in the next 4-6 months you'll still be quids in assuming you will get a mortgage as the rates now will be WAY lower than you'll get then.
fesuvious said:
Kudos said:
Mystic Meg?? Whats the lottery numbers tomorrow?
I don't play - the odds are crapWinning £10 on the lottery for a £1 investment equates to a payout of 9/1.
So you're getting 9/1 about a 920/1 shot. Poor value somewhat.
fesuvious said:
only if you work on historical traditional multiples....
This whole (wrong) age of credit and borrowing may have led to the s
tstorm, and indeed huge lessons, have/will be and still need to be learned.
When all is done though it'll be unsecured credit that is massively scaled back, not secured. Mortgage multiples will remain at 4 or 5 times esily. However the age of the eighteen year old borrowing £30k on plastic while paying £150 per month for the brand new Renault Clio is over.
Don't expect things to return to the way they were.
The age of traditional sensible (as many knew it) lending has gone. It was proven unsatisfactory to the modern society. In it's place came the great 'lending race' of cheap easy credit. Massive multiples and quick spending.
You can now expect the balance to be addressed somewhere inbetween. Sensible criteria, secured, but still on large multiples. The keyword will now be 'secured'.
The danger up ahead is the backlash, which I am too tired to explain but suffice to say we'll be on 'rebound' for @18>24 months, expect high inflation soon as people spend again (but not on additional or overleveraged credit) and then watch as it combines to dry up just as the BOE have gotten interest rates up (starting July or Aug 2010) to result in the money vanishing just as interest rates get pushed too far.
2013 - start saving now, it won't be quite as bad as Jan>June 2009 but you wouldn't wanna borrow anything in this year
Woohoo, someone who views the traditional multiples view in the same light as me!This whole (wrong) age of credit and borrowing may have led to the s
tstorm, and indeed huge lessons, have/will be and still need to be learned.When all is done though it'll be unsecured credit that is massively scaled back, not secured. Mortgage multiples will remain at 4 or 5 times esily. However the age of the eighteen year old borrowing £30k on plastic while paying £150 per month for the brand new Renault Clio is over.
Don't expect things to return to the way they were.
The age of traditional sensible (as many knew it) lending has gone. It was proven unsatisfactory to the modern society. In it's place came the great 'lending race' of cheap easy credit. Massive multiples and quick spending.
You can now expect the balance to be addressed somewhere inbetween. Sensible criteria, secured, but still on large multiples. The keyword will now be 'secured'.
The danger up ahead is the backlash, which I am too tired to explain but suffice to say we'll be on 'rebound' for @18>24 months, expect high inflation soon as people spend again (but not on additional or overleveraged credit) and then watch as it combines to dry up just as the BOE have gotten interest rates up (starting July or Aug 2010) to result in the money vanishing just as interest rates get pushed too far.
2013 - start saving now, it won't be quite as bad as Jan>June 2009 but you wouldn't wanna borrow anything in this year
If historically there were 2.4 children to a household/family, that wouldnt be allowed to change and children would have to be executed if people started sprogging more and it rose to 3. Nobody seems to subscribe to that but its essentially the same as what gets banded about regarding property all the time.
fesuvious said:
hey, I hope you are not calling me a doom-monger!!??
Just wait for what comes after that......;-) I shall be spending the next two years amassing as much cash as I can, waiting to take advantage.
Buying property post 2013?Just wait for what comes after that......;-) I shall be spending the next two years amassing as much cash as I can, waiting to take advantage.
fesuvious said:
Hence the debate I have raging within about paying debt (mortgage) off wit said cash, or, using it for a longer term advantage (hopefully).
Same debate I am now in.
Edited by Halb on Wednesday 30th December 10:47
johnfelstead said:
Japan is still 75% down on it's hieght 20 years ago, with unemployment set to continue rising by 250K next year, and the post election clampdown on spending which will be brutal for many peoples incomes, with interest rates set to rise at the same time and the cost of energy set to rise also, what makes you think we are set for or can afford any growth in house prices in the next decade?
Nail on the head.This decade will be very different to the last !
The only thing I would add is that we should not compare ourselves in any way to Japan, as they have less debt, they actually make stuff, and they have a fundamentally sound economy. We DO NOT.
It's the final stiff.
Houses are a commodity like any other. You think in terms of prices and volumes.
What will happen is that prices will continue to increase, but volumes will continue to flatline (more or less), until prices actually decline, or currency inflation catches up.
At some point the wealthy (like financiers) will figure it's no longer sensible to have their cash tied up in property, and they'll let go of their housing stock at a calculated loss.
IMO, houses are still priced way over value, easily by 30-40%.
Houses are commodities, so it is supply and demand, but they are manufactured commodities, and one must also consider the cost of manufacture. At the moment the cost of building houses is rocketing.
The numeric value of house prices probably isn't going to fall. House prices, and investment is probably not going to be the thing it was.
Salary is now king. Getting a pay-rise is just about to become impossible.
IMHO.
Houses are a commodity like any other. You think in terms of prices and volumes.
What will happen is that prices will continue to increase, but volumes will continue to flatline (more or less), until prices actually decline, or currency inflation catches up.
At some point the wealthy (like financiers) will figure it's no longer sensible to have their cash tied up in property, and they'll let go of their housing stock at a calculated loss.
IMO, houses are still priced way over value, easily by 30-40%.
Houses are commodities, so it is supply and demand, but they are manufactured commodities, and one must also consider the cost of manufacture. At the moment the cost of building houses is rocketing.
The numeric value of house prices probably isn't going to fall. House prices, and investment is probably not going to be the thing it was.
Salary is now king. Getting a pay-rise is just about to become impossible.
IMHO.
Edited by dilbert on Friday 1st January 06:10
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff