Discussion
What is the probability?
You are a Labour benefits type person and you got a call from one of the poll companies like Mori or YouGov. You would probably take the 10 mins to complete their questions racking up a hit for Brown.
How likely are these same people to actually get off their backsides come the election and put an X next to Clunk's name?
I'm guessing it is far lower than the probability of those that want change who are dying to get to the ballot box to stick X next to CMDs so they can get rid of Labour.
I'm guessing that if the polls show a 7-10 point difference before hand - it will be greater come the day.
You are a Labour benefits type person and you got a call from one of the poll companies like Mori or YouGov. You would probably take the 10 mins to complete their questions racking up a hit for Brown.
How likely are these same people to actually get off their backsides come the election and put an X next to Clunk's name?
I'm guessing it is far lower than the probability of those that want change who are dying to get to the ballot box to stick X next to CMDs so they can get rid of Labour.
I'm guessing that if the polls show a 7-10 point difference before hand - it will be greater come the day.
Pretty high, I would think.
Voter turnouts are low as it is, with recent scandals people are even more disinclined to vote. Floating voters think all the parties are the same and it doesn't matter who they vote for, and a lot of moderate Labour supporters are very unhappy, to the point that while they might not vote for someone else, they may not have the heart to vote at all.
It comes down to the old adage of voting the ruling party out rather than voting a new lot in, those who want a change in government are a lot more motivated than those who want it to stay the same, as far as I can see.
Voter turnouts are low as it is, with recent scandals people are even more disinclined to vote. Floating voters think all the parties are the same and it doesn't matter who they vote for, and a lot of moderate Labour supporters are very unhappy, to the point that while they might not vote for someone else, they may not have the heart to vote at all.
It comes down to the old adage of voting the ruling party out rather than voting a new lot in, those who want a change in government are a lot more motivated than those who want it to stay the same, as far as I can see.
To be honest, I'm fairly apathetic about voter apathy. Most people have very little knowledge about politics, and don't take any real interest until it's election time. A higher the percentage of people voting, means that more people are voting who don't really understand what they are voting for.
I think you're right that the gap will widen, but then again I thought that Labour would struggle in 2005, and they still ended up with a healthy majority.
I think you're right that the gap will widen, but then again I thought that Labour would struggle in 2005, and they still ended up with a healthy majority.
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