Question for economists
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Discussion

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?

Seems like all deficit borrowing does is ultimately transfer wealth to the banks and bankers as you have to pay interest later? Plus you have to borrow more and more to pay interest so is it surely not sustainable as the portion of GDP transfered to the banks just keeps going up?

don4l

10,058 posts

206 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
They need all the money that they get during the boom. That is when they invest in future votes from the unemployed.


Don
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MX7

7,902 posts

204 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?
Like they did in Zimbabwe?

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
MX7 said:
SmoothRB said:
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?
Like they did in Zimbabwe?
Sure but that was out of control.

Why not just print what you need instead of borrowing.

Obviously some discipline is required.

You don't need to pay interest on printed money.

MX7

7,902 posts

204 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
MX7 said:
SmoothRB said:
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?
Like they did in Zimbabwe?
Sure but that was out of control.

Why not just print what you need instead of borrowing.

Obviously some discipline is required.

You don't need to pay interest on printed money.
We did it with £200bn worth of quantitative easing, and have an inflation rate of 3%+ while we are still in a very difficult situation. We are now about £900bn in debt. If we tried to print any more money, the £ would become very weak, and I think we would get much higher inflation. If we hit stagflation, I think we would be truly screwed.

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
MX7 said:
SmoothRB said:
MX7 said:
SmoothRB said:
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?
Like they did in Zimbabwe?
Sure but that was out of control.

Why not just print what you need instead of borrowing.

Obviously some discipline is required.

You don't need to pay interest on printed money.
We did it with £200bn worth of quantitative easing, and have an inflation rate of 3%+ while we are still in a very difficult situation. We are now about £900bn in debt. If we tried to print any more money, the £ would become very weak, and I think we would get much higher inflation. If we hit stagflation, I think we would be truly screwed.
Well sure but I'm not saying it is a solution to clear existing debt. Rather a way to manage the economic cycle.

I don't see how adding £100 bn of printed money to the economy is more inflationary than £100 bn of debt money?

Dare2Fail

3,808 posts

238 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
It might work if we were completely shut off from the rest of the world, but given the way the global economy works I would imagine it would just result in the £ being massively devalued.

Effectively you would have a Government saying to the rest of the world "Trust us, we'll remove this extra money from the system later". That's a tough sell for anyone.

anonymous-user

84 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Seems like all deficit borrowing does is ultimately transfer wealth to the banks and bankers as you have to pay interest later?
zzz

keep banging that drum. by transfer wealth i assume you're refering to interest payments? good idea lets ban interest, that'll stop those evil bankers

Edited by fbrs on Monday 3rd May 16:54

Andy Zarse

10,870 posts

277 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
fbrs said:
SmoothRB said:
Seems like all deficit borrowing does is ultimately transfer wealth to the banks and bankers as you have to pay interest later?
zzz

keep banging that drum. by transfer wealth i assume you're refering to interest payments? good idea lets ban interest, that'll stop those evil bankers

Edited by fbrs on Monday 3rd May 16:54
Yet another bone-headed pretend economics question from SmoothRB to which it appears he's already made up his mind on the answer before posting. He seems to know about as much about economics as Gordon Brown... oh wait... wink

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
fbrs said:
SmoothRB said:
Seems like all deficit borrowing does is ultimately transfer wealth to the banks and bankers as you have to pay interest later?
zzz

keep banging that drum. by transfer wealth i assume you're refering to interest payments? good idea lets ban interest, that'll stop those evil bankers

Edited by fbrs on Monday 3rd May 16:54
Yet another bone-headed pretend economics question from SmoothRB to which it appears he's already made up his mind on the answer before posting. He seems to know about as much about economics as Gordon Brown... oh wait... wink
Well I haven't got a good answer.

AndrewW-G

11,968 posts

247 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Andy Zarse said:
fbrs said:
SmoothRB said:
Seems like all deficit borrowing does is ultimately transfer wealth to the banks and bankers as you have to pay interest later?
zzz

keep banging that drum. by transfer wealth i assume you're refering to interest payments? good idea lets ban interest, that'll stop those evil bankers

Edited by fbrs on Monday 3rd May 16:54
Yet another bone-headed pretend economics question from SmoothRB to which it appears he's already made up his mind on the answer before posting. He seems to know about as much about economics as Gordon Brown... oh wait... wink
Well I haven't got the answer I want yet.
EFA

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
Dare2Fail said:
It might work if we were completely shut off from the rest of the world, but given the way the global economy works I would imagine it would just result in the £ being massively devalued.

Effectively you would have a Government saying to the rest of the world "Trust us, we'll remove this extra money from the system later". That's a tough sell for anyone.
Why?

s2art

18,942 posts

283 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Dare2Fail said:
It might work if we were completely shut off from the rest of the world, but given the way the global economy works I would imagine it would just result in the £ being massively devalued.

Effectively you would have a Government saying to the rest of the world "Trust us, we'll remove this extra money from the system later". That's a tough sell for anyone.
Why?
Prior experience of any country that tries to solve its problem by printing more money.

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
s2art said:
SmoothRB said:
Dare2Fail said:
It might work if we were completely shut off from the rest of the world, but given the way the global economy works I would imagine it would just result in the £ being massively devalued.

Effectively you would have a Government saying to the rest of the world "Trust us, we'll remove this extra money from the system later". That's a tough sell for anyone.
Why?
Prior experience of any country that tries to solve its problem by printing more money.
But there did that because they could not get credit right?

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hmm no if we borrow foreign currency (which we do in effect by selling guilts) that just means we can augment our GDP by buying extra goods and services from abroad right?

As you say domestic GDP is a zero sum game (to an extent anyway).

It's clearly unsustainable though 'cos of the interest payments. If you borrow the same as your surplus to balance the economic cycle you will just accumulate debt (due to the interest servicing) ad infinitum.


anonymous-user

84 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
if we borrow foreign currency (which we do in effect by selling guilts)
when the treasury issues gilts they recieve pounds

anonymous-user

84 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Well I haven't got a good answer.


these are the owners of uk gilts. i'm sure the dmo could give you a more detailed breakdown. the government pays them interest to borrow money. notice that privately owned banks hardly hold any uk debt at all. is it to much to ask you figure out how google works?

Edited by fbrs on Monday 3rd May 18:06

SmoothRB

Original Poster:

1,700 posts

202 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
fbrs said:
SmoothRB said:
if we borrow foreign currency (which we do in effect by selling guilts)
when the treasury issues gilts they recieve pounds
How do foreigners buy them then?

anonymous-user

84 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
fbrs said:
SmoothRB said:
if we borrow foreign currency (which we do in effect by selling guilts)
when the treasury issues gilts they recieve pounds
How do foreigners buy them then?
with pounds

Tadite

560 posts

214 months

Monday 3rd May 2010
quotequote all
SmoothRB said:
Ok so the Gov borrows money to finance deficit spending over one half of the cycle.

Why does it not just print that money, spend it during the bust, then during the boom destroy an equivalent amount of money?
The problems with devaluation are:

1. If you use it people stop lending you money in your currency. This makes you depending your own domestic savings rate and worse means that you have to constantly worry about your foreign currency reserves to pay your debt. There is a reason much of the worlds debt is in dollars.
2. If you devalue you undercut your own savings. Every piece of your currency that exists suddenly is worth less. Meaning everyone of your own population with any savings just lost value. Worse this undercuts peoples willingness to exchange their currency to yours and this undercuts trade and investment.

Any rapid change in currency is economically detrimental.