Is another world recession inevitable?

[captainzep]

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics. A female broker once touched my bullish technicals but I suspect that doesn't count.

So is it possible to avoid another recession with what history tells us or is the whole thing on a rough inevitable cycle?

Discuss.

[FourWheelDrift]

It generally work like this.

Recession years - everyone says it mustn't happen again. Put into place regulations to make sure it wont happen again.
Pull out of recession - everyone pats everyone on the back and say how good they are.
Years of growth - so this surplus we have, do we save it or spend it........
Mistakes creep in - these regulations, we don't really need them do we? After all we are all making good money, lets spend more.
Get found out - you know we can't afford to pay this all back now, do we borrow more to cover it?
Recession again - blame it on the bankers/regulators/borrowers/spenders/government's fault.

Vicious circle.

[Bing o]

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

[Pints]

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

[James_N]

Bing o said:

Gordon, is that you?

[Globs]

Pints said:

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

I deduce the OP is a socialist.

[Jackleman]

Not possibly to avoid really IMHO.

I think the next one will be worse because everyone is still addicted to debt like some crack house hoare.

[NoelWatson]

FourWheelDrift said:

It generally work like this.

Recession years - everyone says it mustn't happen again. Put into place regulations to make sure it wont happen again.
Pull out of recession - everyone pats everyone on the back and say how good they are.
Years of growth - so this surplus we have, do we save it or spend it........
Mistakes creep in - these regulations, we don't really need them do we? After all we are all making good money, lets spend more.
Get found out - you know we can't afford to pay this all back now, do we borrow more to cover it?
Recession again - blame it on the bankers/regulators/borrowers/spenders/government's fault.

Vicious circle.

We haven't had recession years yet where everyone pays back debt

[Fittster]

NoelWatson said:

FourWheelDrift said:

It generally work like this.

Recession years - everyone says it mustn't happen again. Put into place regulations to make sure it wont happen again.
Pull out of recession - everyone pats everyone on the back and say how good they are.
Years of growth - so this surplus we have, do we save it or spend it........
Mistakes creep in - these regulations, we don't really need them do we? After all we are all making good money, lets spend more.
Get found out - you know we can't afford to pay this all back now, do we borrow more to cover it?
Recession again - blame it on the bankers/regulators/borrowers/spenders/government's fault.

Vicious circle.

We haven't had recession years yet where everyone pays back debt

You sure we aren't all going to default?

[elster]

Fittster said:

NoelWatson said:

FourWheelDrift said:

It generally work like this.

Recession years - everyone says it mustn't happen again. Put into place regulations to make sure it wont happen again.
Pull out of recession - everyone pats everyone on the back and say how good they are.
Years of growth - so this surplus we have, do we save it or spend it........
Mistakes creep in - these regulations, we don't really need them do we? After all we are all making good money, lets spend more.
Get found out - you know we can't afford to pay this all back now, do we borrow more to cover it?
Recession again - blame it on the bankers/regulators/borrowers/spenders/government's fault.

Vicious circle.

We haven't had recession years yet where everyone pays back debt

You sure we aren't all going to default?

Governments don't want to be run by the IMF for the rest of time by defaulting.

I disagree with the Recession cycle posted above.

Findland saved money during the years of growth.

[captainzep]

Globs said:

Pints said:

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

I deduce the OP is a socialist.

Not at all.

I'm actually skipping about the place wearing nothing but an ex-SS Panzer unit vest tossing off to pictures of F.W. de Klerk.

Anyway, I've had a think and I'm not sure that your post actually answered much of the original question. But I still think you're awesome.

[Pints]

captainzep said:

Globs said:

Pints said:

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

I deduce the OP is a socialist.

Not at all.

I'm actually skipping about the place wearing nothing but an ex-SS Panzer unit vest tossing off to pictures of F.W. de Klerk.

Anyway, I've had a think and I'm not sure that your post actually answered much of the original question. But I still think you're awesome.

My idea of heaven.

[singlecoil]

One thing is for sure, and that is everybody wil have less money in the future, simply because the number of people that comprise 'everybody' is continually rising. Certain items such as the oil supply, argicultural land etc are, on the oher hand, diminishing

[Fittster]

singlecoil said:

One thing is for sure, and that is everybody wil have less money in the future, simply because the number of people that comprise 'everybody' is continually rising. Certain items such as the oil supply, argicultural land etc are, on the oher hand, diminishing

you are The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus I claim my 5 pounds.

[singlecoil]

Fittster said:

singlecoil said:

One thing is for sure, and that is everybody wil have less money in the future, simply because the number of people that comprise 'everybody' is continually rising. Certain items such as the oil supply, argicultural land etc are, on the oher hand, diminishing

you are The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus I claim my 5 pounds.

"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man"

[Globs]

captainzep said:

Globs said:

Pints said:

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

I deduce the OP is a socialist.

Not at all.

I'm actually skipping about the place wearing nothing but an ex-SS Panzer unit vest tossing off to pictures of F.W. de Klerk.

Thank god for that!!

captainzep said:

Anyway, I've had a think and I'm not sure that your post actually answered much of the original question. But I still think you're awesome.

True (except for the awesome but - you're a captain, so you must be right )

I think there will be a big worldwide slump, yes. Is it inevitable? Yes and no. If we sidestepped the central bankers and outlawed fraction reserve banking we could do it. Remember nature and physics know nothing of credit or debt, just because we all owe some bank computer X thousand pounds does't actually change anything we need to drive and survive, it just allows the bankers to end up with all our money (and us to buy all that Chinese stuff).

As the bankers own all the countries (The ECB has recently snapped up Greece and Ireland too), politicians and land then it is inevitable - yes.

[robm3]

Sadly avertising and marketing does such a fine job these days we're stuffed in the long run. Human desire for accumulating 'things' means debt will remain and grow again.

The pursuit of iPads, BMW's, boats, whatever, will continue....

Is another world recession inevitable?

I would ask "have we as individuals changed our ways since 2009?"

If this answer to mine is "no", then the answer to yours is "yes"

[Globs]

robm3 said:

Sadly avertising and marketing does such a fine job these days we're stuffed in the long run. Human desire for accumulating 'things' means debt will remain and grow again.

The pursuit of iPads, BMW's, boats, whatever, will continue....

Possibly, but main problem is that the way central banking works is that money is debt.
Therefore the more money in the system means the more debt is in the system. That tenner in your hand is ten pounds of debt. That debt attracts interest too, charged by the banks, so you have a debt that grows exponentially. You'd think you could solve that with money, but money is debt, so you end up with more debt.

Debt will grow and remain for ever because money _is_ debt.

[robm3]

Globs said:

robm3 said:

Sadly avertising and marketing does such a fine job these days we're stuffed in the long run. Human desire for accumulating 'things' means debt will remain and grow again.

The pursuit of iPads, BMW's, boats, whatever, will continue....

Possibly, but main problem is that the way central banking works is that money is debt.
Therefore the more money in the system means the more debt is in the system. That tenner in your hand is ten pounds of debt. That debt attracts interest too, charged by the banks, so you have a debt that grows exponentially. You'd think you could solve that with money, but money is debt, so you end up with more debt.

Debt will grow and remain for ever because money _is_ debt.

But central bank debt is a safe debt, fundamentally it's personal debt that is the problem.

Consider this, if there were no defaults on personal debt, do you think the 2009 recession would have occured?

[sleep envy]

captainzep said:

Globs said:

Pints said:

Bing o said:

captainzep said:

I know the sq rt of fk all about economics.

Gordon, is that you?

I deduce the OP is a socialist.

Not at all.

I'm actually skipping about the place wearing nothing but an ex-SS Panzer unit vest tossing off to pictures of F.W. de Klerk.

Anyway, I've had a think and I'm not sure that your post actually answered much of the original question. But I still think you're awesome.