The PH exit poll

[eps]

turbobloke said:

Wills2 said:

Kinnock just stated that the British electorate is delusional!

That's a rare moment, Kinnock taking his snout out of the EU trough long enough to grunt something silly.

Two legs good, four legs better...

[turbobloke]

ITV now crystal balling 331 seats for the Conservatives.

[0000]

And the BBC now at 331 too. Quite a long way away from their unexpectedly high 316 exit poll.

[turbobloke]

0000 said:

And the BBC now at 331 too. Quite a long way away from their unexpectedly high 316 exit poll.

331 Shades of 1992, where the exit poll suggested a Hung Parliament but Major got a clear win, this is how it seems to work.

Some commentators have been calling for a review of polling methodology - one apparently suggested they should become illegal due to the size of error and how it could exert undue influence. Not likely to happen though!

[JagLover]

eps said:

turbobloke said:

Wills2 said:

Kinnock just stated that the British electorate is delusional!

That's a rare moment, Kinnock taking his snout out of the EU trough long enough to grunt something silly.

Two legs good, four legs better...

If anyone missed it try and check it out somewhere. Basically saying Labour needs a better electorate.

[turbobloke]

Apparently Miliband is now working on his resignation statement but it could be some time before we get to see it as the stone mason is laughing too hard to carve accurately.

[turbobloke]

Cleggo has resigned.

As expected.

[Justayellowbadge]

turbobloke said:

Cleggo has resigned.

As expected.

Good speech.

[SilverSixer]

Justayellowbadge said:

turbobloke said:

Cleggo has resigned.

As expected.

Good speech.

As, pretty much, always. British public too thick to get it, obviously. Never mind.

I'm not bitter. ;-)

[K12beano]

mitzy said:

Taxi for Nigel ???

Has anyone made plans for Nigel?

[Pebbles167]

Justayellowbadge said:

turbobloke said:

Cleggo has resigned.

As expected.

Good speech.

Yes it was. Despite not voting Lib Dem I've always liked clegg, and think it's a shame they are losing him.

[Spooge]

K12beano said:

Has anyone made plans for Nigel?

XTC did I think.

Suppose that's what you get for putting your faith in British Steel.

[johnxjsc1985]

Spooge said:

XTC did I think.

Suppose that's what you get for putting your faith in British Steel.

he must be happy in his world

[jamescodriver]

And Clegg is off...

[trashbat]

Pebbles167 said:

Yes it was. Despite not voting Lib Dem I've always liked clegg, and think it's a shame they are losing him.

Really?

The man's abridged legacy, on the face of it, is that he was elected on the basis of promises like opposing higher tuition fees, and then shortly after, personally voted for the direct opposite of that apparently in order to get a party-serving vote on the bks that was AV, which he then lost anyway but in doing so put any discussion of electoral reform to bed for who knows how long. All of which ultimately culminated in the near destruction of his party in the ballot, and to the extent that it even matters, further damaging the breadth of British democratic choice. That's to say nothing of their lacklustre coalition merely benefiting the Tories by obfuscating the government's accountability for the last five years.

I'd hope he gets run over by a tram but death is too good for the man.

[KarlMac]

labour cleaned up in sheffield as expected. Disgusted with the rotherham result.

[andyps]

turbobloke said:

331 Shades of 1992, where the exit poll suggested a Hung Parliament but Major got a clear win, this is how it seems to work.

Some commentators have been calling for a review of polling methodology - one apparently suggested they should become illegal due to the size of error and how it could exert undue influence. Not likely to happen though!

I think the polls were probably right. I suspected this would go the same way as 1992 did, people thinking prior to the vote that they would put the cross next to Labour, or at least saying that because they didn't want to admit an alternative. However, when it came to actually putting pencil to paper the thought of Milliband was just too much to accept so went with the Tories. And based on the exit polls some still didn't want to admit to having done so.

[turbobloke]

andyps said:

turbobloke said:

331 Shades of 1992, where the exit poll suggested a Hung Parliament but Major got a clear win, this is how it seems to work.

Some commentators have been calling for a review of polling methodology - one apparently suggested they should become illegal due to the size of error and how it could exert undue influence. Not likely to happen though!

I think the polls were probably right. I suspected this would go the same way as 1992 did, people thinking prior to the vote that they would put the cross next to Labour, or at least saying that because they didn't want to admit an alternative.

That may be so, but it's still a problem for pollsters, and the outcomes will still be wrong! It's not totally bizarre to consider that people can (for example) be either shy, lie, or change their minds. While I wasn't the person who put £30k on a Tory majority back in April at 7/1, I have once or twice pointed out on PH that poll errors appear to be larger than pure theory would suggest. Pure theory is easy to manipulate, while we know the real world is very messy.

[0000]

KarlMac said:

labour cleaned up in sheffield as expected. Disgusted with the rotherham result.

I'd missed the Rotherham result. Streuth.

[Digga]

0000 said:

KarlMac said:

labour cleaned up in sheffield as expected. Disgusted with the rotherham result.

I'd missed the Rotherham result. Streuth.

The one place you'd think Labour could, should and would have got a well deserved thumping. Just goes to prove that for some people the miner's strikes never ended. Dinosaurs.