Who are you going to vote for in 2015
Poll: Who are you going to vote for in 2015
Total Members Polled: 724
Discussion
Einion Yrth said:
I note that all of our amateur psephologists are looking at things in terms of a swing from x to y,. One of the things that recent vox pops have noted is that UKIP are picking up a lot of the "haven't voted for years, they're all a
holes" votes. It isn't necessarily a zero sum game. Is this enough to get UKIP seats? Frankly I don't know but it certainly seems to be something that the APs are not taking into account.
Exactly. holes" votes. It isn't necessarily a zero sum game. Is this enough to get UKIP seats? Frankly I don't know but it certainly seems to be something that the APs are not taking into account. This topic did not start off with UKIP at its centre, but with 687 votes and 43% of those favouring UKIP, along with lots of posts about them it has clearly gone this way.
In October 2012 I started a topic as a floating voter considering UKIP... the response was mixed but with lots dismissing UKIP with comments like this:
Breadvan72 said:
UKIP = BNP for people who don't like tattoos.
UKIP have clearly come a long way in that time, we have 4 months until the EU elections and a year more to the General Election. Lots could happen to UKIP in between - good or bad, but at the very least UKIP offer a choice to those of us who will never vote for Cameron or Labour again and who don't support the EU. 
fblm said:
Again using 2010 just a 2% swing from Tory to UKIP costs them the marginals of Broxtowe, Camborne&Redruth, Cardiff North, Hendon, Oxford West&Abingdon, Sherwood, Stockton South,Thurrock, Truro&Falmouth and Warwickshire North.
I'll take your maths as correct because I CBA to check it 
But I just happened to notice that in at least two of those seats (the Cornish ones) the they are likely to return a Lib Dem if the tories fail to win.
This is of course where the "the lib dems will be entirely wiped out" posts on here show the poster's complete and utter ignorance of the practicalities of UK politics.
fblm said:
The Torys will pay for their failure to secure boundary reform for a very long time to come.
Not if they get a working majority or give enough to their future coalition partners to get the thing through parliament they won't 
Practicalities again, practicalities...
otolith said:
It will be interesting to see what happens to the UKIP vote both at and after the European Parliament elections in May.
No it won't because to all intents and purposes we know what's coming.Given the form of PR that we have for EU elections, and the fact that the majority of people who can be arsed vote in the EU elections (who are a very small minority of the UK electorate) treat it as a "protest vote," UKIP will do well.
Which is a particular pity, because we will then be sending a bunch of tossers to the EU assembly who do nothing constructive whilst they're they're there, but trouser a nice wedge of cash for attendance alowances etc, whilst then coming home and telling the UK electorate what a monumental waste of money the EU is.
Well, you're right there lads and ladesses - so will you be giving back the expenses claims you put in to the EU so as to reduce the staggering sums of money its costing us?
Thought not ...
After the elections, His Nigeness will be on TV telling everybody how UKIP is coming on leaps and bounds and they "are confident" in winning seats in the 2015 General election.
And then we shall see what really happens.
My money, the weekend after the election, is on seeing his Nigeness again on TV telling everybody what an astounding result it was for UKIP, how thay came second in at least a dozen constituencies (I'm feeling particularly generous by saying that), how if the run-up to the election had been longer they would have won a few of them (because they didn't know when it was to be called, did they
), and that it will be "only a matter of time" before UKIP gets its first Westminster MP. In the meantime until 2020, we will have a conservative government. Or a labour government. Or no party with a working majority so we will have another coaltion - that will include the lib dems.
Or am I being too practical for you?
rs1952 said:
otolith said:
It will be interesting to see what happens to the UKIP vote both at and after the European Parliament elections in May.
No it won't because to all intents and purposes we know what's coming.Given the form of PR that we have for EU elections, and the fact that the majority of people who can be arsed vote in the EU elections (who are a very small minority of the UK electorate) treat it as a "protest vote," UKIP will do well.
Which is a particular pity, because we will then be sending a bunch of tossers to the EU assembly who do nothing constructive whilst they're they're there, but trouser a nice wedge of cash for attendance alowances etc, whilst then coming home and telling the UK electorate what a monumental waste of money the EU is.
Well, you're right there lads and ladesses - so will you be giving back the expenses claims you put in to the EU so as to reduce the staggering sums of money its costing us?
Thought not ...
After the elections, His Nigeness will be on TV telling everybody how UKIP is coming on leaps and bounds and they "are confident" in winning seats in the 2015 General election.
And then we shall see what really happens.
My money, the weekend after the election, is on seeing his Nigeness again on TV telling everybody what an astounding result it was for UKIP, how thay came second in at least a dozen constituencies (I'm feeling particularly generous by saying that), how if the run-up to the election had been longer they would have won a few of them (because they didn't know when it was to be called, did they
), and that it will be "only a matter of time" before UKIP gets its first Westminster MP. In the meantime until 2020, we will have a conservative government. Or a labour government. Or no party with a working majority so we will have another coaltion - that will include the lib dems.
Or am I being too practical for you?
rs1952 said:
No it won't because to all intents and purposes we know what's coming.
Given the form of PR that we have for EU elections, and the fact that the majority of people who can be arsed vote in the EU elections (who are a very small minority of the UK electorate) treat it as a "protest vote," UKIP will do well.
Which is a particular pity, because we will then be sending a bunch of tossers to the EU assembly who do nothing constructive whilst they're they're there, but trouser a nice wedge of cash for attendance alowances etc, whilst then coming home and telling the UK electorate what a monumental waste of money the EU is.
Well, you're right there lads and ladesses - so will you be giving back the expenses claims you put in to the EU so as to reduce the staggering sums of money its costing us?
Thought not ...
After the elections, His Nigeness will be on TV telling everybody how UKIP is coming on leaps and bounds and they "are confident" in winning seats in the 2015 General election.
And then we shall see what really happens.
My money, the weekend after the election, is on seeing his Nigeness again on TV telling everybody what an astounding result it was for UKIP, how thay came second in at least a dozen constituencies (I'm feeling particularly generous by saying that), how if the run-up to the election had been longer they would have won a few of them (because they didn't know when it was to be called, did they ), and that it will be "only a matter of time" before UKIP gets its first Westminster MP.
In the meantime until 2020, we will have a conservative government. Or a labour government. Or no party with a working majority so we will have another coaltion - that will include the lib dems.
Or am I being too practical for you?
Of most importance is that we will not have a conservative government, and we will never have a conservative government until the Tories address the issues UKIP raises. Given the form of PR that we have for EU elections, and the fact that the majority of people who can be arsed vote in the EU elections (who are a very small minority of the UK electorate) treat it as a "protest vote," UKIP will do well.
Which is a particular pity, because we will then be sending a bunch of tossers to the EU assembly who do nothing constructive whilst they're they're there, but trouser a nice wedge of cash for attendance alowances etc, whilst then coming home and telling the UK electorate what a monumental waste of money the EU is.
Well, you're right there lads and ladesses - so will you be giving back the expenses claims you put in to the EU so as to reduce the staggering sums of money its costing us?
Thought not ...
After the elections, His Nigeness will be on TV telling everybody how UKIP is coming on leaps and bounds and they "are confident" in winning seats in the 2015 General election.
And then we shall see what really happens.
My money, the weekend after the election, is on seeing his Nigeness again on TV telling everybody what an astounding result it was for UKIP, how thay came second in at least a dozen constituencies (I'm feeling particularly generous by saying that), how if the run-up to the election had been longer they would have won a few of them (because they didn't know when it was to be called, did they
), and that it will be "only a matter of time" before UKIP gets its first Westminster MP. In the meantime until 2020, we will have a conservative government. Or a labour government. Or no party with a working majority so we will have another coaltion - that will include the lib dems.
Or am I being too practical for you?
The ball is in the court of the Tories if they want to be elected again. The maths does not add up if they do not address the interests of UKIP voters - failing to address the issues UKIP raises spells no chance of a Conservative majority ever again - it's the end of the Tories as a party capable of forming a government on its own.
Realism and numbers... Fun eh?
Oa wrote about realism and numbers as I was typing the post below - as it happens it gives him some
Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones Conservative 21,500
Greg Lovell Labour 3,620
Julia Reid UK Independence Party 1,783
Michael Simpkins British National Party 641
Samantha Fletcher Green 446
John Maguire English Democrats 307
Richard Sexton Christian Party 118
As you will see, voting for anybody other than the tories or the LDs in this neck of the woods means nothing. Labour sometimes gets its deposit back, but not in every election. If UKIP tripled their vote around here, it would still only put them in a very poor third place, essentially still with the "also rans"
Around here, the tories won't be all that concerned if some of their vote goes to UKIP because the chances are they wouldn't have won anyway. Of all party supporters, true lib dems (as opposed to protest voting ones) are the least likely to vote UKIP
And this, of course, when you get down to local level, is what makes the national polls utterly meaningless. Labour will not win around here, neither will UKIP, and the fight is a simple one between the LDs and the tories.
And my consituency is not unique. There are scores of them with these sorts of maths surrounding them all over the country.
As said, voters should vote with both their consciences and their brains
steveT350C said:
So what do you suggest the electorate do then?
They vote with both their consciences and their brains. For what its worth, these are the results in my home constituency in the 2010 election:Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones Conservative 21,500
Greg Lovell Labour 3,620
Julia Reid UK Independence Party 1,783
Michael Simpkins British National Party 641
Samantha Fletcher Green 446
John Maguire English Democrats 307
Richard Sexton Christian Party 118
As you will see, voting for anybody other than the tories or the LDs in this neck of the woods means nothing. Labour sometimes gets its deposit back, but not in every election. If UKIP tripled their vote around here, it would still only put them in a very poor third place, essentially still with the "also rans"
Around here, the tories won't be all that concerned if some of their vote goes to UKIP because the chances are they wouldn't have won anyway. Of all party supporters, true lib dems (as opposed to protest voting ones) are the least likely to vote UKIP
And this, of course, when you get down to local level, is what makes the national polls utterly meaningless. Labour will not win around here, neither will UKIP, and the fight is a simple one between the LDs and the tories.
And my consituency is not unique. There are scores of them with these sorts of maths surrounding them all over the country.
As said, voters should vote with both their consciences and their brains
Edited by rs1952 on Friday 17th January 22:27
rs1952 said:
otolith said:
It will be interesting to see what happens to the UKIP vote both at and after the European Parliament elections in May.
No it won't because to all intents and purposes we know what's coming.Interesting times, though perhaps more interesting if, like me, you feel disinclined to vote for any of them.
rs1952 said:
Oa wrote about realism and numbers as I was typing the post below - as it happens it gives him some
Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones Conservative 21,500
Greg Lovell Labour 3,620
Julia Reid UK Independence Party 1,783
Michael Simpkins British National Party 641
Samantha Fletcher Green 446
John Maguire English Democrats 307
Richard Sexton Christian Party 118
As you will see, voting for anybody other than the tories or the LDs in this neck of the woods means nothing. Labour sometimes gets its deposit back, but not in every election. If UKIP tripled their vote around here, it would still only put them in a very poor third place, essentially still with the "also rans"
Around here, the tories won't be all that concerned if some of their vote goes to UKIP because the chances are they wouldn't have won anyway. Of all party supporters, true lib dems (as opposed to protest voting ones) are the least likely to vote UKIP
And this, of course, when you get down to local level, is what makes the national polls utterly meaningless. Labour will not win around here, neither will UKIP, and the fight is a simple one between the LDs and the tories.
And my consituency is not unique. There are scores of them with these sorts of maths surrounding them all over the country.
As said, voters should vote with both their consciences and their brains
So I guess you fall into the 'tactical voter' group, rather than, 'vote for what you believe in' group?steveT350C said:
So what do you suggest the electorate do then?
They vote with both their consciences and their brains. For what its worth, these are the results in my home constituency in the 2010 election:Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones Conservative 21,500
Greg Lovell Labour 3,620
Julia Reid UK Independence Party 1,783
Michael Simpkins British National Party 641
Samantha Fletcher Green 446
John Maguire English Democrats 307
Richard Sexton Christian Party 118
As you will see, voting for anybody other than the tories or the LDs in this neck of the woods means nothing. Labour sometimes gets its deposit back, but not in every election. If UKIP tripled their vote around here, it would still only put them in a very poor third place, essentially still with the "also rans"
Around here, the tories won't be all that concerned if some of their vote goes to UKIP because the chances are they wouldn't have won anyway. Of all party supporters, true lib dems (as opposed to protest voting ones) are the least likely to vote UKIP
And this, of course, when you get down to local level, is what makes the national polls utterly meaningless. Labour will not win around here, neither will UKIP, and the fight is a simple one between the LDs and the tories.
And my consituency is not unique. There are scores of them with these sorts of maths surrounding them all over the country.
As said, voters should vote with both their consciences and their brains
Edited by rs1952 on Friday 17th January 22:27
steveT350C said:
So I guess you fall into the 'tactical voter' group, rather than, 'vote for what you believe in' group?
I always have, because the result in this constituency doesn't bother me one way or the other. I don't personally care about sharing my politics with you or anybody else - I am a left wing Tory, one of those (quite a few) people who think the best Prime Ministers we never had were Michael Hesseltine and Ken Clarke.So I'm happy whichever party wins around here - unless, that is, if the Tories put up an anti-EU candidate, or one who in any way tries to out-UKIP UKIP, in which case the lib dems will get my vote.
rs1952 said:
steveT350C said:
So I guess you fall into the 'tactical voter' group, rather than, 'vote for what you believe in' group?
I always have, because the result in this constituency doesn't bother me one way or the other. I don't personally care about sharing my politics with you or anybody else - I am a left wing Tory, one of those (quite a few) people who think the best Prime Ministers we never had were Michael Hesseltine and Ken Clarke.So I'm happy whichever party wins around here - unless, that is, if the Tories put up an anti-EU candidate, or one who in any way tries to out-UKIP UKIP, in which case the lib dems will get my vote.
rs1952 said:
steveT350C said:
So I guess you fall into the 'tactical voter' group, rather than, 'vote for what you believe in' group?
I always have, because the result in this constituency doesn't bother me one way or the other. I don't personally care about sharing my politics with you or anybody else - I am a left wing Tory, one of those (quite a few) people who think the best Prime Ministers we never had were Michael Hesseltine and Ken Clarke.So I'm happy whichever party wins around here - unless, that is, if the Tories put up an anti-EU candidate, or one who in any way tries to out-UKIP UKIP, in which case the lib dems will get my vote.
She will lose her seat due to the increase in the UKIP vote, no doubt about that.
0a said:
You state one case - your constituency. In mine the local Tory has a majority in the hundreds - which means discussion with my family and friends has already knocked 2% off her majority from me alone
She will lose her seat due to the increase in the UKIP vote, no doubt about that.
Perhaps. But who's currently second? UKIP? Or labour or the lib dems?She will lose her seat due to the increase in the UKIP vote, no doubt about that.
im said:
You are a bit slowsteveT350C said:
im said:
You are a bit slowim said:
steveT350C said:
im said:
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