My £100 Horse Betting challenge

[g4ry13]

After reading the F458 thread and feeling a little inspired I decided to have a go with my own horse betting journal. I have been analysing the stats and odds for horses lately compiling them in a database and feel now is a good time to see how I get on with it.

For the purposes of this thread i'll be starting with a £100 account and going to start with £1/bet. I'll be looking to bet on horses which present value according to my database and will be holding the bet for the entirety of the race. Should it go well i'll increase my bet sizing.

At this point i'd like to say that I don't recommend anyone take my bets as a recommendation as this is unfamiliar ground and i'm not even sure what the results will be.

[g4ry13]

Going to start with a few bets now.

16:10 Taunton Humbel Ben 19.0
16:20 Folkestone Lindsays Dream 41.0

[F458]

g4ry13 said:

After reading the F458 thread and feeling a little inspired I decided to have a go with my own horse betting journal. I have been analysing the stats and odds for horses lately compiling them in a database and feel now is a good time to see how I get on with it.

For the purposes of this thread i'll be starting with a £100 account and going to start with £1/bet. I'll be looking to bet on horses which present value according to my database and will be holding the bet for the entirety of the race. Should it go well i'll increase my bet sizing.

At this point i'd like to say that I don't recommend anyone take my bets as a recommendation as this is unfamiliar ground and i'm not even sure what the results will be.

Great news, I wish you all the best

[richardxjr]

Yep, all the best g4ry. Wonder if it's worth also working out return from the Placed market too? (you've probably already considered and dismissed this )

[g4ry13]

Thanks, it's rather experimental at the moment so just to re-iterate that others shouldn't be taking these bets. 2 out of 2 for losses so far, the bets were still good value though just they won't always come through with those odds. So £98 in the account. I'll post up my bets for tomorrow when I go through the races and my database.

[g4ry13]

Here's my selections for today, £1 on each race.

Newcastle:

13:50 Prince Tam @ 8.30
14:50 Frank The Slink @ 11.0
15:50 Teerie Express @ 4.60

Kempton:

16:50 Kiss My Heart @ 39.0
18:50 Prince Gabrial @ 6.0

Edited by g4ry13 on Wednesday 1st February 10:46

[g4ry13]

No winners today, came close with a 2nd and one of my horses didn't even run by the looks of it. I was wondering if maybe I should do the place bet market. But I think it'll just be a case of winning less a bit more often vs winning more less often so it will even itself out. £93 left, i'll get some more bets on tomorrow.

[Hoofy]

I think if it didn't run, your bet is cancelled.

[g4ry13]

It might have ran, just it went to 1000 in race for some reason. It got beaten by 4 lengths which I guess explains that.

[cheddar]

Hope this gets a bit more exciting.

[richardxjr]

Are you backing early at these prices, or waiting til the off? Prince Gabrial went out to 12 before the off (and did well too, thought it was going to win).

If you are backing early it'd be worth using a bookie with Best Odds G'teed like Paddypower or Ladrokes, so if SP is higher they pay out at that.

[g4ry13]

I get my bets on early as it's just convenient for me to do it in the morning so I can get on with other things during the day rather than monitoring the prices. Sometimes they odds will widen and sometimes they'll narrow closer to the race. I think they're value at the odds i'm betting so we'll see. Quite a few races I like the look of today, once again i'll re-iterate that others shouldn't be taking these bets (if my current win rate wasn't enough of a warning not to )

Today's selections:

Southwell:

14:00 With Hindsight @ 24.0
14:30 Roedean @1.66
15:00 Bond Style @5.80
15:30 Dashing Eddie @2.93
16:00 Cheery Cat @ 31.0
16:30 Ezra Church @ 6.0

Wolverhampton:

13:50 Whipphound @ 21.0
14:20 Riflessione @13.0

Edited by g4ry13 on Thursday 2nd February 10:09

[Hoofy]

g4ry13 said:

It might have ran, just it went to 1000 in race for some reason. It got beaten by 4 lengths which I guess explains that.

If you are watching the odds, you might as well listen to Timeform radio. Sounds like it tripped up.

[g4ry13]

Hoofy said:

g4ry13 said:

It might have ran, just it went to 1000 in race for some reason. It got beaten by 4 lengths which I guess explains that.

If you are watching the odds, you might as well listen to Timeform radio. Sounds like it tripped up.

It was just the one race I was around to see the odds. I knew something was up. Usually when it goes to 1000 it means I haven't got a hope in hell of winning which is all that matters.

[g4ry13]

Races finished for the day. A bit of a mixed day. I started the day with £93. A little annoying as i'm wondering if i'd be better off betting places. With Hindsight got 3rd (i'd backed that at 24.0), Bond Style came in 2nd (backed at 5.80.) I had 1 non-runner so that was an automatic loss. 2 wins though; Ezra Church @ 6.0 and Roedean @ 1.66.

So winnings: (£5 + 0.66) x 0.95 = £5.38 after commission.
8 bets = £8. A loss of £2.62. So the account's down to £90.38.

[richardxjr]

If you backed a horse (on the day) that didn't run it would be voided & stake returned, non?

[Dan_1981]

Watching with interest.

[g4ry13]

Just checked that, cheery cat was a non-runner so I got my bet back. So actually £91.38.

[g4ry13]

Here's my selections for today.

Lingfield:

13:20 Miserere Mei @ 28.0
14:55 Chapellerie @ 4.0
15:30 Moderator @ 3.05

Wolverhampton:

14:40 Munsarim @ 1.90
15:50 Piper Cherokee @ 300.0
16:20 Elna Bright @ 9.0
16:50 Blown it @ 4.40

[g4ry13]

Results for today:

1 x non-runner, 1 x win @ 1.90, my 300.0 surprisingly didn't win and the rest lost so not a great result for the day.

Profit : 90 * 0.95 = 86p
Losses: £5 (I got £1 back for a non - runner) so overall -£4.14 on the day.

Account's at £86.24.