When do we jump into gold?
Discussion
Loose monetary policy all over the world and printing presses raging in all major economies bar China and Europe.
Equities hitting new highs daily..
It's surely going to end in tears? So what do we think about gold? It's down since the highs and a good way of protecting value...should we be jumping in?
Equities hitting new highs daily..
It's surely going to end in tears? So what do we think about gold? It's down since the highs and a good way of protecting value...should we be jumping in?
P(ermanent) O(pen) Market O(peration) invests $4.25 every day in march...the $85bn that Bernanke deems the right amount every month, given that there are 20 working days in March. That's a new fund with $4.25bn AUM every day. Why would you buy anything other than what they are buying..?
Gold is a valid investment if you buy it for the right reason.
It is a keep you rich strategy, not a get you rich one.
A way to maintain value in in times of crappyness.
You can't make an investment choice in the same way that your Mother chooses a horse in the Grand National.
Gold is a great choice if you live in the third world, you are not allowed to hold foreign currency and your own is at a twenty percent discount on the black market.
Sterling isn't quite that bad yet
While traditional safe havens (gilts & treasuries) are not great at present, I don't things are so dire that Gold is or only choice.
I assume you have noticed all the "buy Gold" propaganda have slowed. It is possible those people who bought at over 1,700 may sit on a non performing asset for five or even ten years just to break even.
They should have sold at 16,500, but they didn't because they didn't know why they bought it.
The thought of having a target price (up or down) never occurred.
Even your Mother whose horse fell at the third fence didn't say I'll bet on him again next year, I'm sure he'll do better. She chooses another horse.
With Draghi out of the news, Obama beginning to realise he is not Emperor things are starting to improve, hell even Spanish bonds were up the other day. Cyprus is in the crapper but it's small.
Let the Krauts worry about Greece and look where you think will improve next.
If you think things are still not better than 2010/11 then Gold may be good for you, but a glance at global economies do not support that.
It is a keep you rich strategy, not a get you rich one.
A way to maintain value in in times of crappyness.
You can't make an investment choice in the same way that your Mother chooses a horse in the Grand National.
Gold is a great choice if you live in the third world, you are not allowed to hold foreign currency and your own is at a twenty percent discount on the black market.
Sterling isn't quite that bad yet
While traditional safe havens (gilts & treasuries) are not great at present, I don't things are so dire that Gold is or only choice.
I assume you have noticed all the "buy Gold" propaganda have slowed. It is possible those people who bought at over 1,700 may sit on a non performing asset for five or even ten years just to break even.
They should have sold at 16,500, but they didn't because they didn't know why they bought it.
The thought of having a target price (up or down) never occurred.
Even your Mother whose horse fell at the third fence didn't say I'll bet on him again next year, I'm sure he'll do better. She chooses another horse.
With Draghi out of the news, Obama beginning to realise he is not Emperor things are starting to improve, hell even Spanish bonds were up the other day. Cyprus is in the crapper but it's small.
Let the Krauts worry about Greece and look where you think will improve next.
If you think things are still not better than 2010/11 then Gold may be good for you, but a glance at global economies do not support that.
I look at gold as an insurance policy, something to protect value, not necessarily an asset that will give me a gain or quick return.
Jeff_M2, whilst I agree the indicators are showing things are improving, the reality is this has been achieved partly through loose monetary policy. There hasn't been QE on this global scale ever in history. Now I'm normally a glass is half full kind of guy, christ I bought an M3 thinking I won't lose much money, okay that's delusional, but seriously with all this money floating around surely inflation has to rear it's ugly head and maybe on a scale we haven't seen for a long time... this is one reason I wonder whether gold should be considered.
With all of this debt, governments are also on a mad race to devalue their currency...again is this a reason to consider gold.
Anyway, all food for thought...meanwhile and based on how quickly our petrol prices are going up I've decided to buy a tanker of jungle juice, I reckon I could do quite well!
Jeff_M2, whilst I agree the indicators are showing things are improving, the reality is this has been achieved partly through loose monetary policy. There hasn't been QE on this global scale ever in history. Now I'm normally a glass is half full kind of guy, christ I bought an M3 thinking I won't lose much money, okay that's delusional, but seriously with all this money floating around surely inflation has to rear it's ugly head and maybe on a scale we haven't seen for a long time... this is one reason I wonder whether gold should be considered.
With all of this debt, governments are also on a mad race to devalue their currency...again is this a reason to consider gold.
Anyway, all food for thought...meanwhile and based on how quickly our petrol prices are going up I've decided to buy a tanker of jungle juice, I reckon I could do quite well!
I agree we have no real history to refer to.
With regard to the "mad race" in currency devaluation, yep a real concern, I often wonder were Sterling might be without it. Which of course does make a better case for a Sterling investor to consider gold than me. (Brit that thinks in Dollars)
In reality it's all a gamble, how one approaches the problem depends on where we sit with regard to our ultimate target. I personally am not yet there, I still need growth so I have to stay aggresive with 70% of assets. If I were closer, I could protect 90% and use leveraged plays with 10% to perhaps make maybe 8% overall. Not easy and quite stressful.
Your reasoning is sound based on how you see all pieces of the jigsaw, my post was really to get people to think about the larger picture before they choose an asset, which obviously you have.
Now we just have to get you into a car with less seats
With regard to the "mad race" in currency devaluation, yep a real concern, I often wonder were Sterling might be without it. Which of course does make a better case for a Sterling investor to consider gold than me. (Brit that thinks in Dollars)
In reality it's all a gamble, how one approaches the problem depends on where we sit with regard to our ultimate target. I personally am not yet there, I still need growth so I have to stay aggresive with 70% of assets. If I were closer, I could protect 90% and use leveraged plays with 10% to perhaps make maybe 8% overall. Not easy and quite stressful.
Your reasoning is sound based on how you see all pieces of the jigsaw, my post was really to get people to think about the larger picture before they choose an asset, which obviously you have.
Now we just have to get you into a car with less seats
What about platinum instead of gold? Still a precious metal, but has industrial uses as well, so isn't just a pure safe haven punt. Can be owned in a physically allocated ETF (PPLT) if you're happy with that. Also in the PM basket PHPP. If you think the developing world is going to keep wanting cars and also that EU (EPA?) regs are enforcing ever tighter emissions control, might be worth a look instead of gold? Also used as a catalyst in the refining process, so again, lots more Chinese demanding lots more oil may mean more catalyst required. Food for thought if nothing else. Also, there are (currently) fewer people ramping the b
ks out of it, so you might be able to trust the analysis more. If gold continues to be in the doldrums (goldrums?), I suspect more people might migrate to platinum. Going to have a look at the gold to platinum ratios myself at some stage, just to get a feel for it.
Not an expert etc etc!
ks out of it, so you might be able to trust the analysis more. If gold continues to be in the doldrums (goldrums?), I suspect more people might migrate to platinum. Going to have a look at the gold to platinum ratios myself at some stage, just to get a feel for it.Not an expert etc etc!
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