Expert on Japan needed

[jeff m2]

This is with regard to fund investment.

Ok, you don't need to be an expert, all opinions are welcome.

Japan has been the best performer this year, yesterday it went up 4,9%. An almost unprecedented one day gain.

I missed out of all of this. I sat and watched (thinking this can't last)
I know BOJ did some some stuff, but it wasn't really that much different to everyone else.

I'm obviously dumber than I thought
I missed something.

[Newc]

Can't plot it right now to show the timeline, but it's essentially a slightly delayed implementation of the same things that have caused the run-up in the US and Europe, plus starting from an oversold position after Fukushima.

If you plot N225 against S+P, but take out the 12mths after Fukushima, I think you'll see the same curve but with a 3 to 4 month timelag.

[Condi]

The YEN has shat itself this year so although your investment might be doing well if not properly hedged it might all be lost in the currency movements. Certainly my investments arn't doing very well!

[jeff m2]

Newc said:

Can't plot it right now to show the timeline, but it's essentially a slightly delayed implementation of the same things that have caused the run-up in the US and Europe, plus starting from an oversold position after Fukushima.

If you plot N225 against S+P, but take out the 12mths after Fukushima, I think you'll see the same curve but with a 3 to 4 month timelag.

Ah Fukushima, different starting point. That makes sense, I'm not sure I would have jumped in even if I had factored that in (after 10+ years in the doldrums)

[jeff m2]

Condi said:

The YEN has shat itself this year so although your investment might be doing well if not properly hedged it might all be lost in the currency movements. Certainly my investments arn't doing very well!

The Yen was involved in the "fight to the bottom" along with other major currencies, all reducing their int rates for a variety of reasons.
The gains of Japan were tops in Dollar terms, so not lost in currency shift.

I missed out on it completely, I know Japan was doing ok re cars to China but Korea has moved in and taken away lots of markets previously held by Japan.

[Mankers]

jeff m2 said:

This is with regard to fund investment.

Ok, you don't need to be an expert, all opinions are welcome.

Japan has been the best performer this year, yesterday it went up 4,9%. An almost unprecedented one day gain.


I missed something.

Looks like you did miss something the 7.5% drop in one day a couple of weeks ago, for an index that is truly savage. Still could be some good opportunities to buy a long ETF or long CFD with a corresponding hedge, base currency vs yen.

[mx stu]

High risk, high reward?

I read somewhere the other day that Japan is sailing exceedingly close to the wind. Current debt to GDP is something like 200+% and we think we've got it bad at 80%!

[Cheib]

mx stu said:

High risk, high reward?

I read somewhere the other day that Japan is sailing exceedingly close to the wind. Current debt to GDP is something like 200+% and we think we've got it bad at 80%!

Japan is an industrial powerhouse....we're not. Massive difference!

Japan is a very,very hard call. Japan has effectively had QE for the last twenty years but announced an aggressive expansion earlier this year which prompted the Nikkei to rally and the currency sell off.

Honestly not sure which side of the coin I'd be on....Japan has massive structural issues which make it so different from every other country in the world.

Default position for Japanese is to deny there's a problem i.e. Fukushima last year which in the long term makes things worse.

[5pen]

Nikkei down another 6.35% overnight. Very bumpy at the moment and I'm afraid have no real idea as to which way it's going to go. The government's monetary policies have lead the bull run, but it seems that there is nervousness that the government will be able to back that up will 'real' reforms.

I have a small holding in a Japanese fund. It's been interesting over the last 8 months that's for sure.