Dow at 15,000. WTF?

[johnfm]

Looks a bit mad to me. Can't quite see where all the earnings are coming from for the companies in the index to keep growing to justify 15,000.

Is it just that there is nowhere else at the moment to get a return?

[johnfm]

I was discussing this with someone today.

He was suggesting tha the US growth has been so much better than the UK.

But he wouldn't entertain that QE isn't 'real GDP growth'.

But the figures are startling:

UK QE - about £375billion

US QE - about $2000 billion

I cannot imagine the Dow can go much higher before people start to take some profit, especially with Syria on the verge of kicking off.

[johnfm]

I am taking a quarter of my very small portfolio and putting it into something safer...


...buying a classic Lotus!

[BIRMA]

johnfm said:

I am taking a quarter of my very small portfolio and putting it into something safer...


...buying a classic Lotus!

That's even more risky than shares

[afrochicken]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

The difference is that in 1999 the DJIA had a p/e ratio of 27, whereas it is currently under 16.

It's certainly not different this time, and we're not in a new paradigm. But the market is not expensive at this level. However, just because it is not expensive doesn't mean it can't become cheaper. There are some significant event risks that we know about which could take a couple of thousand points off the market in a matter of weeks. But based on the facts as they exist today, the market is not overpriced.