Stockmarket fall in July?
Stockmarket fall in July?
Author
Discussion

rolex

Original Poster:

3,120 posts

288 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
Do you think there's likely to be a fall in the FTSE in July as people like myself switch their equity ISA's into cash ISA's?. Anyone here planning to do the same?

Revisitph

983 posts

217 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
Private investors only own about 11% of the FTSE 100, only a proportion will be in ISAs and people switching into cash would need to assume that the 1.5% or whatever interest rates are now is better than the return on the index - of course if people believe that the index will fall then the return on cash or even the zero income from gold might look more attractive, so a self-fulfilling prophecy. Private and professional investors are putting less into the 100 this year anyway according to this article. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance...

Private investor holdings of the FTSE 100 are about the same as the total amount held in ISAs. What I can't find on a 2 minute Google is what the ratio of equity:cash holdings in ISAs is.

I suspect that much bigger players and geopolitical news dwarf ISA-holder's actions - but the market may fall because of those... or it may rise! That's why I don't try timing - unless there is a massive drop when I tend to ignore the rule and buy.

DSLiverpool

16,532 posts

232 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
I feel we have peaked and the only way is an overall down for at least the next 6 months until the run up to bonus time.

I am evaluating going all cash and waiting for overall value in the market to come back in.

Dogs apart of course

Simpo Two

92,963 posts

295 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
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DSLiverpool said:
I feel we have peaked and the only way is an overall down for at least the next 6 months
Me too. I just hope the people running my loot sense this too and don't have their heads buried in their computers. 'Ah well it's a long term investment sir and we did do well last year...'

DSLiverpool

16,532 posts

232 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
DSLiverpool said:
I feel we have peaked and the only way is an overall down for at least the next 6 months
Me too. I just hope the people running my loot sense this too and don't have their heads buried in their computers. 'Ah well it's a long term investment sir and we did do well last year...'
Your paying them 2 / 3% ? so you need a return of 5 / 6% to make it worthwhile - I hope it is. Alternatively stick it evenly in the top 10 FTSE 100 shares and make more ? - why not do the maths over the last year. If you have creamed it that's great but I have a huge emperors new clothes feeling about stock management for the "ordinary" man. I feel you have to be truly rich to get the inside track and us cannon fodder simply pay the bonuses.

Simpo Two

92,963 posts

295 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
Agree 100%. 'The Industry' is set up for their benefit not ours, we get whatever is left. But neither do I wish to sit at my computer every day playing stocks and shares, a subject I don't understand well enough to take the wheel.

DSLiverpool

16,532 posts

232 months

Tuesday 24th June 2014
quotequote all
Simpo Two said:
Agree 100%. 'The Industry' is set up for their benefit not ours, we get whatever is left. But neither do I wish to sit at my computer every day playing stocks and shares, a subject I don't understand well enough to take the wheel.
Ok do me a favour when you have 5 mins, spread your investment evenly over the top ten FTSE 100`s going back the last 12 months, remember to account for the brokers commission and tell me if you would be ahead or behind. (forget divis for this test)

GrizzlyBear

1,108 posts

165 months

Friday 27th June 2014
quotequote all
DSLiverpool said:
I feel we have peaked and the only way is an overall down for at least the next 6 months until the run up to bonus time.

I am evaluating going all cash and waiting for overall value in the market to come back in.

Dogs apart of course
+1

DSLiverpool

16,532 posts

232 months

Tuesday 8th July 2014
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rolex said:
Do you think there's likely to be a fall in the FTSE in July as people like myself switch their equity ISA's into cash ISA's?. Anyone here planning to do the same?
Seems so

ringram

14,702 posts

278 months

Wednesday 9th July 2014
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Wrong reason though...

Needs to come off the boil for the good of longer term anyway..

Plus nothing was cheap any more. Well except Russia which I stocked up on at a PE of 4 smile

jeff m2

2,060 posts

181 months

Wednesday 9th July 2014
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You are at 67, that's a mild correction, 63 would be a drop.

The market cannot go up everyday.

This is the time to maybe take a look at some companies that you took profits on recently.
They could have dropped back to prices close to your original purchase price.
These companies are still the same company that you bought before but have been dragged down by the market.
Cheaper is good right.

Always good to keep enough cash on hand for two bargains on days like these.