Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economi
Discussion
I know there are some pretty smart cookies here. So is this all sensationalist twaddle?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/se...
If I do sell everything I'd be following the herd, and that's generally what I try to avoid. So at my level, the end of the financial food chain, is it the usual case of 'Think of it as a long term investment sir' which translates as 'do nothing'?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/se...
If I do sell everything I'd be following the herd, and that's generally what I try to avoid. So at my level, the end of the financial food chain, is it the usual case of 'Think of it as a long term investment sir' which translates as 'do nothing'?
And where do you put the proceeds? 0.5% interest rates are hardly tempting.
Would you sell your house if someone said (as they always are) that house prices are going to crash?
Rule number 1, you only lose money if you have to sell. Timing entries and exits is tricky, it why the guys in the city get paid so much.
Would you sell your house if someone said (as they always are) that house prices are going to crash?
Rule number 1, you only lose money if you have to sell. Timing entries and exits is tricky, it why the guys in the city get paid so much.
t. Have you never heard of opportunity cost???rdjohn said:
Would you sell your house if someone said (as they always are) that house prices are going to crash?
Not if you lived in it. Houses as investments are a different matter entirely.Would you sell shares in your own company if a crash was called? The decisions you make when you are intimately involved are different.
rdjohn said:
And where do you put the proceeds? 0.5% interest rates are hardly tempting.
No, but my simple brain says that 0.5% or even cash under the mattress is better than -20%.rdjohn said:
Would you sell your house if someone said (as they always are) that house prices are going to crash?
No, because it's a different kind of investment (I don't derive my income from it), because selling and rebyuing is massively inconvenient, and because you still need to buy another house to live in, so you'd lose anyway.I expect the usual advice is 'do nothing'. The one ray of hope is that RBS chose to make the announcement, which means they probably have an ulterior motive and it's a bluff.
Time will see who is right - me, the 'pros' or RBS.
Generally I'd be of the school of thought that headlines with sell everything usually do not appear when you should actually sell.
But in the current market under the surface there really is some technical damage being done, also the market has for sure changed character since last August and even so since the New year.
Has sentiment gone too bearish I don't quite know seems everyone is calling for a crash. What I do know is there's quite a few charts out there exhibiting topping patterns, for me personally the next rally is key in figuring out if we end up going though highs or a substantial move lower.
But in the current market under the surface there really is some technical damage being done, also the market has for sure changed character since last August and even so since the New year.
Has sentiment gone too bearish I don't quite know seems everyone is calling for a crash. What I do know is there's quite a few charts out there exhibiting topping patterns, for me personally the next rally is key in figuring out if we end up going though highs or a substantial move lower.
I have to say I'm fairly worried , we have quite a few products that are invested at least in part in China and haven't recovered since the 2008 fall. The closer you come to retirement the more worrying it is
But what's the alternative?, BTL isn't the option that it was and IME can be a total ballache sometimes at least 0.5% in the bank will still be there tomorrow
But what's the alternative?, BTL isn't the option that it was and IME can be a total ballache sometimes at least 0.5% in the bank will still be there tomorrow
For what its worth, Im selling some funds at the moment. Taking profits on CF Woodford, Artemis Strategic and some Lindsell which have done me well over the last few years. They are down off their higher prices a few months back but I think with everyone spooked at the moment the markets could fall further so Im taking my winning whilst I can. This is in my SIPP
Im happy with these funds so Ill save the money and re-enter if I can get in lower than my sell price obviously. If I miss the boat Ill look at what else I can pick up.
Im happy with these funds so Ill save the money and re-enter if I can get in lower than my sell price obviously. If I miss the boat Ill look at what else I can pick up.
Houses tend to write notes that target their own client base. In 2006 RBS had a client base that comprised mostly of clueless, over leveraged punters who didn't really know what they were doing but were following the crowd thinking they were geniuses. What this note suggests from me is that RBS still has the same client base but this time around slightly fewer staff of the same ilk.
Each of their points can be logically contra'd which shows it isn't a balanced view so it's a case of working out what's in it for RBS to publish? Maybe it's just to remind the wider market they still exist, maybe this 'MoneyWeekesque' publication is to scare more old white people to move to them to to scare their existing old white people into selling some investments and buying other investments through them, maybe they are just calling it correctly.
Personally I take the view that the real oil shock will be when it bounces. China may be using less oil in manufacturing as it shifts to a consumer society but it's use of oil in consumers cars is going through the roof. At the same time, oil storage is the lowest it's been for decades, almost ten times lower than the last time prices were down here and the pulling of investment in maintaining wells means that it's going to take some time to ramp up true supply. So my view is that OPEC will fold due to internal bust ups as third world leaders are already soiling themselves at being executed because of a shortage of payoff cash and the real risk lies in a price spike.
Each of their points can be logically contra'd which shows it isn't a balanced view so it's a case of working out what's in it for RBS to publish? Maybe it's just to remind the wider market they still exist, maybe this 'MoneyWeekesque' publication is to scare more old white people to move to them to to scare their existing old white people into selling some investments and buying other investments through them, maybe they are just calling it correctly.
Personally I take the view that the real oil shock will be when it bounces. China may be using less oil in manufacturing as it shifts to a consumer society but it's use of oil in consumers cars is going through the roof. At the same time, oil storage is the lowest it's been for decades, almost ten times lower than the last time prices were down here and the pulling of investment in maintaining wells means that it's going to take some time to ramp up true supply. So my view is that OPEC will fold due to internal bust ups as third world leaders are already soiling themselves at being executed because of a shortage of payoff cash and the real risk lies in a price spike.
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