Retirement Simulators

[Mr Pointy]

Following mention of a retirement income/outcome simulation tool in another thread, cam anyone recommend a publicly available tool? I've found a couple:

http://www.cfiresim.com/
The last update was in 2016 so I'm not sure it gets much attention fom the author.

I particularly like the cheery 'Wedge of Death' feature in this one:
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-e...

It seems I've got 30% chance of not needing to worry about income after the age of 75 as I'll have karked it.

[xeny]

There's also firecalc:

https://www.firecalc.com/

[Derek Chevalier]

xeny said:

There's also firecalc:

https://www.firecalc.com/

I haven't looked closely at it but I'd want to check

Is it tailored to UK (in terms of historical inflation)?
Does it allow you to step down your expected expenditure as you approach later retirement?
Can you alter portfolio mix - equity/bond, global vs UK?
Can you adjust for fees?
Can you add factor tilts (small cap and value)?
Does it combine your expected longevity with portfolio longevity (Also spouse longevity)?

[red_slr]

I use fire calc and cfiresim

Both work on similar rules but I find firecalc is better in terms of resolution as you can really specify when income changes, inflation, one offs etc.

Neither are accurate or reliable though, IMHO, (as life and the world is random!) so I only use them as a guide and work on worst base calculations. Anything better happens then great.

If you are a "normal" retiree i.e retire early 60s or there abouts and have a decent pension / savings you don't really need to worry about reliability of the data so long as you fully understand your outgoings. I think that is more critical.

For people going the other way and retiring earlier than say 55 they need to put a lot more trust in the calculations and make their money work much, much harder over a longer period of time. I.e more risk!

Thus, in conclusion.... Excel. HTH!

[Derek Chevalier]

red_slr said:

If you are a "normal" retiree i.e retire early 60s or there abouts and have a decent pension / savings you don't really need to worry about reliability of the data so long as you fully understand your outgoings. I think that is more critical.

Agreed, understanding your outgoings is key. We tend to break it down into current, early and late retirement. Obviously the latter two are going to be an estimate but we typically find people underestimate their current expenditure which means it's key to spend time thoroughly thinking about what they need/want to spend in retirement.

red_slr said:

For people going the other way and retiring earlier than say 55 they need to put a lot more trust in the calculations and make their money work much, much harder over a longer period of time. I.e more risk!

If we assume we are modelling to age 100, it's not that much of a difference in % chance of portfolio running out between 40 (retiring at 60) and 45 years (retiring at 55)

https://finalytiq.co.uk/cash-reserve-buffers-withd...

[anonymous-user]

O/T but the thread title "Retirement Simulator" takes me straight to "Orgone Accumulator"....