Best election result for GBP?
Discussion
Quite a specific question so I'm posting this in Finance rather than NPE. Hoping to get some insight from the financial gurus in here...
I know people often say "don't try to guess FX markets" but over recent times there have been very obvious correlations between politics (Brexit) and where the pound moves.
If we revoke/second referendum I'd imagine that would be a boost. However, in order for the that to be in play we may be looking at a far left led govt who have been making preparations for capital flight and a run on the pound.
So, what election result do you think is the best for the pound in the 6months-year after the GE?
I know people often say "don't try to guess FX markets" but over recent times there have been very obvious correlations between politics (Brexit) and where the pound moves.
If we revoke/second referendum I'd imagine that would be a boost. However, in order for the that to be in play we may be looking at a far left led govt who have been making preparations for capital flight and a run on the pound.
So, what election result do you think is the best for the pound in the 6months-year after the GE?
Agree about a Lib Dem majority being the biggest positive for GBP strength but that seems to be an extremely unlikely scenario.
I’m imagining a Tory majority to have a more positive influence than a coalition of remainers led by Corbyn even though it may guarantee EU exit. Would that be fair to say?
Labour majority with second ref and more uncertainty the most negative in this respect?
I’m imagining a Tory majority to have a more positive influence than a coalition of remainers led by Corbyn even though it may guarantee EU exit. Would that be fair to say?
Labour majority with second ref and more uncertainty the most negative in this respect?
Ligne said:
Labour majority with second ref and more uncertainty the most negative in this respect?
Interesting one.Worst outcome is probably hung parliament but Lab vs Con is a toss-up if the market gives some hope value to Brexit being cancelled altogether in a second referendum.
Whatever Corbyn does in 4-5 years can be reversed, whereas Brexit (if it happens) will last at least a generation.
NickCQ said:
Interesting one.
Worst outcome is probably hung parliament but Lab vs Con is a toss-up if the market gives some hope value to Brexit being cancelled altogether in a second referendum.
Whatever Corbyn does in 4-5 years can be reversed, whereas Brexit (if it happens) will last at least a generation.
The brexit side of things seemed to have been priced in to some extent, at least for the near term. With no deal really on the cards we were at 1.20 to USD or so. I can’t see it going lower than that with a Tory majority and a WA deal in place. Worst outcome is probably hung parliament but Lab vs Con is a toss-up if the market gives some hope value to Brexit being cancelled altogether in a second referendum.
Whatever Corbyn does in 4-5 years can be reversed, whereas Brexit (if it happens) will last at least a generation.
Labour govt or labour led coalition I’m really not sure how the market would react to that...
Surely lib-not so Dem,would be worst,headless chickens running around after the latest,'niche/pc' agenda,corbinned,next,labour get into power again,realise that sweet words butter no parsnips,unable to follow through with looney plans,Tory's are....well who knows?
Let's all refuse to vote,allow Franco style 'junta' to take power but with the intention of forwarding UK plc,this sham democracy isn't working
Let's all refuse to vote,allow Franco style 'junta' to take power but with the intention of forwarding UK plc,this sham democracy isn't working
A strong majority for anyone will see the pound rise in value I would imagine. A hung parliament and further uncertainty will do the opposite. As someone who is paid in USD I've had a very enjoyable summer, however I'm quite willing to take a pay cut if it means we can stop talking about f
king Brexit one way or the other!
king Brexit one way or the other! BugLebowski said:
A strong majority for anyone will see the pound rise in value I would imagine. A hung parliament and further uncertainty will do the opposite. As someone who is paid in USD I've had a very enjoyable summer, however I'm quite willing to take a pay cut if it means we can stop talking about fking Brexit one way or the other!
fingers crossed for December... 15th is an important day for FX around my office!king Brexit one way or the other! Ligne said:
Labour govt or labour led coalition I’m really not sure how the market would react to that...
Surely GBP would weaken across the board. Imagine sitting on a stack of USD or EUR would you put the money into an economy with Corbyn and McDonnell at the helm? Whilst you may cheer on their supposedly well meaning help for the many, you wouldn't want to be paying for it.
kiethton said:
Lib Dem majority - Brexit cancelled, semi-sensible economic policies so domestically neutral for business
Yup. Probably the only positive outcome if they have semi sensible economic policies but they don’t do in reality it would be a positive outcome in reality, just less horrific. 
If Corbin wins then the people of Britain will unite in their hatred of minorities and a State funded purge will be enacted to rid the new Tsar of any potential competitors. The massive spending will devalue the currency just as it does in other tinpot republics such as Argentina etc.
If Johnson wins then it will be on a mandate of Brexit so we pretty much know what will happen to the currency then.
All in, we will probably get a rally in the GBP on the 13thbso long as there is a clear winner as uncertainty will have been removed.
DonkeyApple said:
kiethton said:
Lib Dem majority - Brexit cancelled, semi-sensible economic policies so domestically neutral for business
Yup. Probably the only positive outcome if they have semi sensible economic policies but they don’t do in reality it would be a positive outcome in reality, just less horrific. If Corbin wins then the people of Britain will unite in their hatred of minorities and a State funded purge will be enacted to rid the new Tsar of any potential competitors. The massive spending will devalue the currency just as it does in other tinpot republics such as Argentina etc.
If Johnson wins then it will be on a mandate of Brexit so we pretty much know what will happen to the currency then.
All in, we will probably get a rally in the GBP on the 13thbso long as there is a clear winner as uncertainty will have been removed.
Here’re mine.
The libdems won't get a majority, at least, not at this election. That's as much a certainty as anything in politics. If they increase their seats by a few and substantially increase their voting percentage they will have a springboard for the 2024 election.
At best, they’ll hold the balance of power. Not to be sniffed at. They are unlikely to form a coalition. They might follow the dup’s MO and accept a bribe, although it will not be money, to work with the tories.
This won’t particularly hurt the £ unless they demand another referendum.
Labour will turn on Corbyn after his election failure and his replacement will be a momentum stooge. Whether that will affect the £ is one of the imponderables. The failure of labour will be a positive, a left-wing pressure group in charge of the second party will be a negative.
The SNP will probably increase their votes. It’s probable the tory’s vote will drop north of the border. There will be another referendum for independence. That won’t be good for the £.
Post election: if the erg increases its influence in the tory party, the floating voter will be put off. If momentum increases its influence in the labour party, that will put off the floating voter. Unless another centrist party is created, the libdems might well be a threat at the 2024 GE, but only if they abandon any promise to rejoin the EU. Going in with Norway/Canada/Lichtenstein and the EEA might well be a positive for floaters.
Probably about right. The Lib Dem’s will be aiming to be at the table on the 13th doing a deal with Labour.
Labour look to be the Remain vote seeking votes from the Labour heartlands that wanted Brexit and from the electorate with the big houses that they want to tax to oblivion. It’s hard to see what Labour offers anyone.
What’s desperately needed is a strong win by anyone frankly so that they have a clear mandate to do something!!
Labour look to be the Remain vote seeking votes from the Labour heartlands that wanted Brexit and from the electorate with the big houses that they want to tax to oblivion. It’s hard to see what Labour offers anyone.
What’s desperately needed is a strong win by anyone frankly so that they have a clear mandate to do something!!
DonkeyApple said:
Labour look to be the Remain vote seeking votes from the Labour heartlands that wanted Brexit and from the electorate with the big houses that they want to tax to oblivion
The theory on the first point is that although Labour heartlands voted for Brexit in large numbers, those that voted Labour are not the same as those who voted for Brexit - by and large the Leave voters were the disengaged that didn't previously turn out for GEs.That's what makes it so volatile this time round - do Leave voters bother to turn up for a GE now that 'Brexit is at stake' or do they revert to type?
DonkeyApple said:
Probably about right. The Lib Dem’s will be aiming to be at the table on the 13th doing a deal with Labour.
Labour look to be the Remain vote seeking votes from the Labour heartlands that wanted Brexit and from the electorate with the big houses that they want to tax to oblivion. It’s hard to see what Labour offers anyone.
What’s desperately needed is a strong win by anyone frankly so that they have a clear mandate to do something!!
Are you suggesting a strong labour majority would be good for the pound? That seems to go against what I've read in the financial press. I could see that a tame left leaning govt/coalition with remain still in play would allow some upside but..... Marxists? Really?Labour look to be the Remain vote seeking votes from the Labour heartlands that wanted Brexit and from the electorate with the big houses that they want to tax to oblivion. It’s hard to see what Labour offers anyone.
What’s desperately needed is a strong win by anyone frankly so that they have a clear mandate to do something!!
Ligne said:
Quite a specific question so I'm posting this in Finance rather than NPE. Hoping to get some insight from the financial gurus in here...
I know people often say "don't try to guess FX markets" but over recent times there have been very obvious correlations between politics (Brexit) and where the pound moves.
If we revoke/second referendum I'd imagine that would be a boost. However, in order for the that to be in play we may be looking at a far left led govt who have been making preparations for capital flight and a run on the pound.
So, what election result do you think is the best for the pound in the 6months-year after the GE?
As others have said, a Lib Dem majority (while extremely unlikely) and cancel Brexit would be very positive for the UK economy and GBP.I know people often say "don't try to guess FX markets" but over recent times there have been very obvious correlations between politics (Brexit) and where the pound moves.
If we revoke/second referendum I'd imagine that would be a boost. However, in order for the that to be in play we may be looking at a far left led govt who have been making preparations for capital flight and a run on the pound.
So, what election result do you think is the best for the pound in the 6months-year after the GE?
Corbyn majority probably the worst outcome.
A Tory majority might see a smaller rally.
Hung parliament might see some weakness.
Helicopter123 said:
As others have said, a Lib Dem majority (while extremely unlikely) and cancel Brexit would be very positive for the UK economy and GBP.
Corbyn majority probably the worst outcome.
A Tory majority might see a smaller rally.
Hung parliament might see some weakness.
I more or less agree with you but I reckon a hung parliament would be the worst outcome as it'll create more uncertainty and Brexit will take longerCorbyn majority probably the worst outcome.
A Tory majority might see a smaller rally.
Hung parliament might see some weakness.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff