Could combustion engined cars be a good investment?
Discussion
In the wake of the banning of new petrol and diesel internal combustion engines cars in 15 years, could these cars become investment pieces in 25-30 years?
I’m not convinced, but I have heard talk of people beginning to source and hoard large engined petrol engines for when doomsday arrives in 2035.
What’s everyone’s else’s thoughts?
I’m not convinced, but I have heard talk of people beginning to source and hoard large engined petrol engines for when doomsday arrives in 2035.
What’s everyone’s else’s thoughts?
I’ve been wondering about this too.
My expectation is that during the 2030s garage forecourts will gradually switch pumps to electric/hydrogen or close completely. Diesel in particular will start disappearing quite quickly I think. The major dealers will also be switching maintenance activities to electric. If this happens, it’ll become increasingly inconvenient to own and drive ICE vehicles, and values will decline. I don’t see there being much of the population desperate to hang on to a technology that by 2030 is cheaper, quieter and faster.
The exception will be collectors vehicles. These will eventually become a bit like traction engines are today: owned and run by enthusiasts who get fuel from specialists. So I’d consider investing in the best of the classic car market.
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
My expectation is that during the 2030s garage forecourts will gradually switch pumps to electric/hydrogen or close completely. Diesel in particular will start disappearing quite quickly I think. The major dealers will also be switching maintenance activities to electric. If this happens, it’ll become increasingly inconvenient to own and drive ICE vehicles, and values will decline. I don’t see there being much of the population desperate to hang on to a technology that by 2030 is cheaper, quieter and faster.
The exception will be collectors vehicles. These will eventually become a bit like traction engines are today: owned and run by enthusiasts who get fuel from specialists. So I’d consider investing in the best of the classic car market.
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
Since there won't be any petrol stations, old cars will be large stationary objects that you have to eventually pay someone to take away.
The very top level "art and museum" stuff will continue to be desirable (Ferrari GTO etc) and perhaps some cars for "Classic Le Mans/Goodwood Revival" but nothing else.
Over the coming years you'll be able to buy one of the currently expensive "last air-cooled 911s" very cheaply indeed. The world's full of 'em. Far to many for the tiny market that will remain.
The very top level "art and museum" stuff will continue to be desirable (Ferrari GTO etc) and perhaps some cars for "Classic Le Mans/Goodwood Revival" but nothing else.
Over the coming years you'll be able to buy one of the currently expensive "last air-cooled 911s" very cheaply indeed. The world's full of 'em. Far to many for the tiny market that will remain.
rockin said:
Since there won't be any petrol stations, old cars will be large stationary objects that you have to eventually pay someone to take away.
Indeed. Since it has been inevitable for the last couple of years that EVs will take over and ICE cars will be banned, I'd been thinking about the kind of ICE car I'd like to have sitting on my drive going nowhere. Sinces it's not so much an investment but something to use until they stop selling petrol, I've wondered which kind of budget vehicle I'd want to lose a few K over.gazapc said:
Is this like all those people who supposedly hoarded boxes full of old style light bulbs before they were banned?
The storage costs on this would be enormous. Its not like you can lock a car away for 15 years and have it still in ready to run condition either.
I’ve done 400 miles in my 911 in 2 years. Storage and maintenance costs have been about £1300 during that period. This includes tax, insurance and servicing. Total ownership costs (excluding fuel and initial purchase price) is £7000 over 5 years. The storage costs on this would be enormous. Its not like you can lock a car away for 15 years and have it still in ready to run condition either.
67Dino said:
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
sorry but 
irocfan said:
67Dino said:
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
sorry but Don't forget it is the sale of new petrol/disiels banned by 2035. Or so they say. Might be long past that once the full costs become apparent. The fleet existing at that point will be around for years after.
In any case If people keep buying real cars for the next 15 years they will be around in big numbers for at least until 2045 or 2050. Petrol and servicing might be an issue in some remote rural area but I think the a market that size will be catered for at least up to 2050 in towns and cities.
It is far too early to be thinking about stockpiling petrol cars.
Don't forget electric cars are so far only financially viable because of tax breaks which can not continue once they are mass market. Let's wait and see.
In any case If people keep buying real cars for the next 15 years they will be around in big numbers for at least until 2045 or 2050. Petrol and servicing might be an issue in some remote rural area but I think the a market that size will be catered for at least up to 2050 in towns and cities.
It is far too early to be thinking about stockpiling petrol cars.
Don't forget electric cars are so far only financially viable because of tax breaks which can not continue once they are mass market. Let's wait and see.
Edited by irc on Wednesday 5th February 12:19
Edited by irc on Wednesday 5th February 12:20
JapanRed said:
Some interesting comments. I would have thought that you would always be able to get petrol from somewhere, even if it is just specialist fuel stations. I don’t think these cars will be undriveable
Possibly, it just might cost a s
t tonne to fill up. Or just inconvenient eg somewhere to store the stuff local to you for when you want a drive, you'd have to have it delivered etc.JapanRed said:
irocfan said:
67Dino said:
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
sorry but I was just thinking about this morning, but more from the prospective of what cars do I want to own before it's too late.
Also do I need to consider offloading them before they become worthless. I am going to be 65 when this kicks in, and Petrol will be around for a long time after. So I decided, no just stay as I am and keep them, but the time they become un-drivable I will be dribbling into my beard anyway.
I could always just go sit in the garage and make brm noises. It's not as if they are ugly to look at.
As for an investment, good luck with that. I remember a chap buying a 930 new and then mothballing it, even at top money it was worth no more than £90K. Over 30 years, just not worth it. Other than a few special cars, just can't see there being any money in it.
Also do I need to consider offloading them before they become worthless. I am going to be 65 when this kicks in, and Petrol will be around for a long time after. So I decided, no just stay as I am and keep them, but the time they become un-drivable I will be dribbling into my beard anyway.
I could always just go sit in the garage and make brm noises. It's not as if they are ugly to look at.
As for an investment, good luck with that. I remember a chap buying a 930 new and then mothballing it, even at top money it was worth no more than £90K. Over 30 years, just not worth it. Other than a few special cars, just can't see there being any money in it.
Who would buy them?
Assuming that the ideal buyer will be of working age (20-70 at that point perhaps), and that after the ban in 2035 it takes 5 years to create sufficient demand for the then-scarce resource of ICE cars develop, the buyer will be somewhere between a feotus and 50 years old today.
Generalising a bit, but the majority of kids to 20-somethings are more interested in the future than the past, with little interest in mechanical engineering over the application of tech to reach outcomes without effort, so generally disinterested in buying your/my car.
The future 60-70 year-old with sufficient wealth to buy a valuable antique car, will be likely to already own more than one desireable car today as a 40-50 year-old, leaving you a small market of those generating wealth in the future with an interest in over-paying for something that requires infrastructure that is in decline (and in certain aspects may no longer exist).
The purchaser would then own a vehicle that is unlikely to be legal to drive in public due to future emissions legislation, unaffordable due to tax policy, and with the social acceptance not unlike standing in your High Street promoting a local fracking venture, wielding a rifle!
I think there may be better ways to make money.
Assuming that the ideal buyer will be of working age (20-70 at that point perhaps), and that after the ban in 2035 it takes 5 years to create sufficient demand for the then-scarce resource of ICE cars develop, the buyer will be somewhere between a feotus and 50 years old today.
Generalising a bit, but the majority of kids to 20-somethings are more interested in the future than the past, with little interest in mechanical engineering over the application of tech to reach outcomes without effort, so generally disinterested in buying your/my car.
The future 60-70 year-old with sufficient wealth to buy a valuable antique car, will be likely to already own more than one desireable car today as a 40-50 year-old, leaving you a small market of those generating wealth in the future with an interest in over-paying for something that requires infrastructure that is in decline (and in certain aspects may no longer exist).
The purchaser would then own a vehicle that is unlikely to be legal to drive in public due to future emissions legislation, unaffordable due to tax policy, and with the social acceptance not unlike standing in your High Street promoting a local fracking venture, wielding a rifle!
I think there may be better ways to make money.
irocfan said:
JapanRed said:
irocfan said:
67Dino said:
One other tip: I am convinced the original Tesla Roadster will be worth £1m by 2040. They only made 2500 of them, and it’s the car that started the electric revolution. With Tesla the biggest company in the world by then, and people nostalgic for the early days of electric, they’ll be hugely sought after. At £70-90k now, I think they’re a bargain.
sorry but sideways sid said:
The purchaser would then own a vehicle that is unlikely to be legal to drive in public due to future emissions legislation, unaffordable due to tax policy, and with the social acceptance not unlike standing in your High Street promoting a local fracking venture, wielding a rifle!
The non social acceptance thing may come in time, but a think it's going to be a fair way after 2035.......Also for whatever reason the historically old cars are not generally hit with high taxes or bans etc are they? We have old cars allowed to have no seat belts, no MOT/Tax after a certain age (that may change?) no cats no dpf's etc, in fact has any car ever been banned outright, the Government adapt the rules to new cars knowing the old ones will generally disappear in time?
The only issue I can think of here is they changed the tax for the 2006 divide retrospectively I think? It caused a bit of a stir from memory about unfairness to those who bought new and were then having their tax altered up?
67Dino said:
The question is what they’re burning through money on. In Tesla’s case, it’s expansion, not survival (ie if they stopped spending on the next round of growth, they’d be wildly profitable). Right now, modest profitability is all they need to show soundness, and they’ve shown two quarters of profitability in a row. What they really need to show is growth and dominance of this massive new market. If they can that then is justifies a valuation comfortably above $1Tn.
So a market cap more than 4 times greater than that of the current largest car manufacturer?And the electricity to power every electric car is going to come from where, exactly? People seem to have a fanciful idea that they just come home, plug their car into the mains and the world will be full of fluffy flowers and free chocolate.
I might be investing in whoever is going to generate electricity.
I might be investing in whoever is going to generate electricity.
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