When will the US driven share / stock bubble pop?
Discussion
And follow up, for a starter for 10, how far will it go down?
I was looking today to see on a simple Yahoo graph how the Dot Com bubble of 2000 compared to the leveraged junk loans of 2008 did on the tech Nasdaq and the general S%P, the results
As you can see on the tech index the Dot com bubble effected them more than the loan bubble cast a downside on those old fashioned investors of the 1990s As you would expect.
Which all seems sensible. Then you look to the right of those two bubbles
Even the analysts are finally thinking
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-stocks-lik...
you don't say.
The USA stock market is suffering from FAANG disease as millennials jump onto the bandwagon of supporting stocks they use in their daily life.
1. New innovation
2. Easy liquidity to stoke that new world order.
The counter point is that people have been saying doom and gloom for months and have been left off the gravy train.
There are no easy answers of course. Otherwise we will all be happy.
As Chuck Prince once said, ex head of Citi/group/bank before they sacked him after 2008 ...
"While the music is playing you have to keep dancing"
So true, and yet so such a true edged sword .....
yeepers ....
I was looking today to see on a simple Yahoo graph how the Dot Com bubble of 2000 compared to the leveraged junk loans of 2008 did on the tech Nasdaq and the general S%P, the results
As you can see on the tech index the Dot com bubble effected them more than the loan bubble cast a downside on those old fashioned investors of the 1990s As you would expect.
Which all seems sensible. Then you look to the right of those two bubbles
Even the analysts are finally thinking
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-stocks-lik...
you don't say.
The USA stock market is suffering from FAANG disease as millennials jump onto the bandwagon of supporting stocks they use in their daily life.
1. New innovation
2. Easy liquidity to stoke that new world order.
The counter point is that people have been saying doom and gloom for months and have been left off the gravy train.
There are no easy answers of course. Otherwise we will all be happy.
As Chuck Prince once said, ex head of Citi/group/bank before they sacked him after 2008 ...
"While the music is playing you have to keep dancing"
So true, and yet so such a true edged sword .....
yeepers ....
greygoose said:
I am guessing that it will be after the Presidential election.....
Yes, that's the view I'm hearing from USA.Expectation over there seems to be an easy Trump re-election with optimism through to November and thereafter. Whether the band-wagon will keep on rolling after that remains to be seen.
Remember that behaviour of S&P 500 is different from our FTSE.
- S&P 500 offers only limited dividend yield (say, 2%) and most shareholder returns come in the form of share prices rising.
- FTSE 100 yields something like 4% of dividend and share prices rise more slowly, balancing that higher yield.
For any of us looking at retiring in the next few years, this is a particularly "interesting" topic!
The "Sequence of Returns" is particularly tricky to figure out, and particularly detrimental to a sound retirement, by all accounts
I would agree most people have been expecting a 'correction' for some time: about 16 months back, we had a "small dip", which recovered pretty fast.....
...but if anyone has that crystal ball for the depth and duration of the next one, I'd be particularly keen to hear from you
A few times over the past 18 months I have been nudging my pension funds into "less risky" funds, but still have a chunk in a global fund and a chunk in US stocks, & frankly would have missed out on quite some growth if I'd been more cautious....but reaching the point of thinking another nudge down might be overdue!
The "Sequence of Returns" is particularly tricky to figure out, and particularly detrimental to a sound retirement, by all accounts
I would agree most people have been expecting a 'correction' for some time: about 16 months back, we had a "small dip", which recovered pretty fast.....
...but if anyone has that crystal ball for the depth and duration of the next one, I'd be particularly keen to hear from you
A few times over the past 18 months I have been nudging my pension funds into "less risky" funds, but still have a chunk in a global fund and a chunk in US stocks, & frankly would have missed out on quite some growth if I'd been more cautious....but reaching the point of thinking another nudge down might be overdue!
One comment I'd make is that as Terry Smith often says, it's worth thinking how much you'd have missed out on if you were always too cautious of the "bubble" popping.
Equally put all your money in SMT I'd get the concerns, VWRL or LifeStrategy or something with a global spread and perhaps less so.
Equally put all your money in SMT I'd get the concerns, VWRL or LifeStrategy or something with a global spread and perhaps less so.
Plenty of countries have a reasonable CAPE ratio.
I wonder how the US would look if you removed the mass of speculative stocks like Tesla?
https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-marke...
Im not a retirement expert, and i hope someone can clarify, but even if you are retiring tomorrow, its not as though you are withdrawing the full value of your pension on day 1, so moving it all to safe assets is very much trying to time the market.
I wonder how the US would look if you removed the mass of speculative stocks like Tesla?
https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-marke...
Im not a retirement expert, and i hope someone can clarify, but even if you are retiring tomorrow, its not as though you are withdrawing the full value of your pension on day 1, so moving it all to safe assets is very much trying to time the market.
Edited by Benbay001 on Saturday 15th February 08:40
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: One comment I'd make is that as Terry Smith often says, it's worth thinking how much you'd have missed out on if you were always too cautious of the "bubble" popping.
Equally put all your money in SMT I'd get the concerns, VWRL or LifeStrategy or something with a global spread and perhaps less so.
SMT? Scottish Mortgage Trust?!Equally put all your money in SMT I'd get the concerns, VWRL or LifeStrategy or something with a global spread and perhaps less so.
I kind of agree, especially w.r.t. gains you’d miss by overly de risking...and history suggests that investing on those broader global tracker-style funds ought perhaps to limit the impact of crashes to a dip of up to 12-18 months before returning to pre-crash levels....maybe markets are “mature enough” that that will do in the future.....
But....those kind of trackers have only been around perhaps 10 years: most other things are tracking sectors (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc).
.....and working for a company who lived through the dotcom crash, who’s stock went from 150 to 6 (yes, SIX!) before steadily working back up......I’m aware there could be money to be saved by “hedging” a bit
Guess that is why I’ve shifted 40% towards bonds/gilts, heck, even 10% into a “pre-retirement fixed interest” fund. Mind you, even that last one shows up as “risk rating 4” on a 1-7 scale
C’mon PH.....where is that crystal ball
mikeiow said:
SMT? Scottish Mortgage Trust?!
I kind of agree, especially w.r.t. gains you’d miss by overly de risking...and history suggests that investing on those broader global tracker-style funds ought perhaps to limit the impact of crashes to a dip of up to 12-18 months before returning to pre-crash levels....maybe markets are “mature enough” that that will do in the future.....
But....those kind of trackers have only been around perhaps 10 years: most other things are tracking sectors (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc).
.....and working for a company who lived through the dotcom crash, who’s stock went from 150 to 6 (yes, SIX!) before steadily working back up......I’m aware there could be money to be saved by “hedging” a bit
Guess that is why I’ve shifted 40% towards bonds/gilts, heck, even 10% into a “pre-retirement fixed interest” fund. Mind you, even that last one shows up as “risk rating 4” on a 1-7 scale
C’mon PH.....where is that crystal ball
Yes Scottish Mortgage Trust as an example of somewhere you can find some of those crazy PE ratios.I kind of agree, especially w.r.t. gains you’d miss by overly de risking...and history suggests that investing on those broader global tracker-style funds ought perhaps to limit the impact of crashes to a dip of up to 12-18 months before returning to pre-crash levels....maybe markets are “mature enough” that that will do in the future.....
But....those kind of trackers have only been around perhaps 10 years: most other things are tracking sectors (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc).
.....and working for a company who lived through the dotcom crash, who’s stock went from 150 to 6 (yes, SIX!) before steadily working back up......I’m aware there could be money to be saved by “hedging” a bit
Guess that is why I’ve shifted 40% towards bonds/gilts, heck, even 10% into a “pre-retirement fixed interest” fund. Mind you, even that last one shows up as “risk rating 4” on a 1-7 scale
C’mon PH.....where is that crystal ball
But presumably nobody has 100% of their investments in that sort of basket.
Do they...?
I have half my money in "wealth preservation" investment trusts as I don't have the stomach for massive losses.
I think anyone investing in the last ten years has only ever known good times and I include myself in that and I'm cautious of how I'd cope in truly bad times
Gandahar said:
And follow up, for a starter for 10, how far will it go down?
I was looking today to see on a simple Yahoo graph how the Dot Com bubble of 2000 compared to the leveraged junk loans of 2008 did on the tech Nasdaq and the general S%P, the results
As you can see on the tech index the Dot com bubble effected them more than the loan bubble cast a downside on those old fashioned investors of the 1990s As you would expect.
Which all seems sensible. Then you look to the right of those two bubbles
Even the analysts are finally thinking
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-stocks-lik...
you don't say.
The USA stock market is suffering from FAANG disease as millennials jump onto the bandwagon of supporting stocks they use in their daily life.
1. New innovation
2. Easy liquidity to stoke that new world order.
The counter point is that people have been saying doom and gloom for months and have been left off the gravy train.
There are no easy answers of course. Otherwise we will all be happy.
As Chuck Prince once said, ex head of Citi/group/bank before they sacked him after 2008 ...
"While the music is playing you have to keep dancing"
So true, and yet so such a true edged sword .....
yeepers ....
Great call here!I was looking today to see on a simple Yahoo graph how the Dot Com bubble of 2000 compared to the leveraged junk loans of 2008 did on the tech Nasdaq and the general S%P, the results
As you can see on the tech index the Dot com bubble effected them more than the loan bubble cast a downside on those old fashioned investors of the 1990s As you would expect.
Which all seems sensible. Then you look to the right of those two bubbles
Even the analysts are finally thinking
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-stocks-lik...
you don't say.
The USA stock market is suffering from FAANG disease as millennials jump onto the bandwagon of supporting stocks they use in their daily life.
1. New innovation
2. Easy liquidity to stoke that new world order.
The counter point is that people have been saying doom and gloom for months and have been left off the gravy train.
There are no easy answers of course. Otherwise we will all be happy.
As Chuck Prince once said, ex head of Citi/group/bank before they sacked him after 2008 ...
"While the music is playing you have to keep dancing"
So true, and yet so such a true edged sword .....
yeepers ....
shopper150 said:
Thankfully, I didn’t!
In the spirit of not doing things, I wrote comments in several threads that I couldn't believe markets were hitting new peaks as the Coronavirus situation was unfolding in China, like this one I wrote on 13th Feb, the day before this thread started.Sheepshanks said:
p_k_n said:
Could this be a catalyst for a world wide recession? Worrying times...
Asian stock markets have slipped a little but I'm amazed there hasn't been a much wider and sharper reaction on markets generally.
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