Discussion
i would wager a Steak that over a 12 mth period there will be no more than in a bad year for flu - so no matter if xmas come early for the underwriters over a 12 mths period it will be within the "normal" spread of what they have already guessed as an option for financially.
I dont think the turkey dinner, party hats with crackers pulled with a pop and bad joke will be envisaged. There may be a small glass raised if overall they have paid out 6mth less then anticipated but thats about all i think.
I dont think the turkey dinner, party hats with crackers pulled with a pop and bad joke will be envisaged. There may be a small glass raised if overall they have paid out 6mth less then anticipated but thats about all i think.
Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 31st March 07:58
Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 31st March 07:59
Groat said:
Do annuity providers think of pandemics which cause high death rates amongst old people like Christmas?
Lots of the providers will have risk going both ways on this - annuities are cheaper if people die early, but life insurance is more expensive as you have to pay out earlier, receiving fewer premiums.Mr Whippy said:
On another thread there was a weekly deaths over the year for the last 5 years for the USA.
I think their death rate has plunged, all time lows irrespective of season for last 5 years.
There is a possibility the lockdown ‘saves’ more lives than coronavirus takes.
I've seen that chart & its interpretation is absolute nonsense. The latter weeks *always* show a plunge because mortality statistics take time to assemble and catch up.I think their death rate has plunged, all time lows irrespective of season for last 5 years.
There is a possibility the lockdown ‘saves’ more lives than coronavirus takes.
What's more, the attribution to covid19 is almost certainly underreported. In Nembro (Italy), 158 deaths Jan-Mar and 31 covid19. But the total is 123 over the average. We are not only seeing underreported covid19 numbers but we'll also see a higher mortality due to respiratory complications for decades to come. Many hospitalised but surviving are showing long term lung damage in their CT scans.
Covid19 deaths being recorded right now are the absolute bare minimum.
jshell said:
People are staying home and I'm sure they'll find inventive ways to shuffle off this mortal coil, nut unlikely to be in car accidents, motorbike accidents, sports, other communicable diseases, drowning at the beach, falling out of boats, hit by lightning on the golf course, etc...
bit like the films - Final destiny 1- 80?? hehe 
superlightr said:
jshell said:
People are staying home and I'm sure they'll find inventive ways to shuffle off this mortal coil, nut unlikely to be in car accidents, motorbike accidents, sports, other communicable diseases, drowning at the beach, falling out of boats, hit by lightning on the golf course, etc...
bit like the films - Final destiny 1- 80?? hehe 
The CMI publish quarterly updates of mortality data. Q1 should be published next month. Admittedly that update won’t capture the (likely) worst months which I expect will be in Q2 but it will give a indication of where deaths (by week) sit relative to prior years.
The Q2 analysis should be very interesting and give an indication of how much of an increase in mortality we have had compared with prior years.
I suspect the impact will be smaller than some of you assume.
The Q2 analysis should be very interesting and give an indication of how much of an increase in mortality we have had compared with prior years.
I suspect the impact will be smaller than some of you assume.
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