None of it makes any sense.....

[smifffymoto]

Billions and billions of money printed,inflation low,interest rates low,stock markets flying highand employment/unemployment looking iffy for many.
When the world starts spending again what will happen,hazard a guess.

I’m confused.

[greygoose]

It will all carry on until there’s a crash, pause for a few years and then the upward cycle will start again.

[dmahon]

We are seeing inflation in front of eyes with house prices and stock markets (apart from FTSE 100!) hitting all time highs.

The official numbers are massaged to stay low, but to me inflation is already kicking in.

I think this time it will happen on the ground as well as companies are so indebted and there is a lack of supply.

The only thing an investor can really do is diversify and hope for the best.

[anonymous-user]

Agreed, everything is doing the complete opposite to what I would have expected. Houses up, second hand car prices up, stock market up, lots of things in short supply, people out spending money like it is going out of fashion.

The only explanation for this is the QE, 0.1% interest rates, furlough money and bounce back loan money.

I totally agree that inflation has to be soaring, there is no way it can be at the levels the government claims with the amount of money sloshing around.

I am trying to buy a garden shed at the moment, nowhere has any stock. Trying to buy some garden furniture and I am being quoted a June delivery date. Crazy.

[CzechItOut]

The Government borrowed £350bn last year. That is 17% of GDP. In a single year.

[stichill99]

I have been buying metal box section last week to make barriers. It has doubled in price in a year! Inflation is massively more than official figures! I just wonder when or if reality will ever strike!

[sociopath]

Joey Deacon said:

Agreed, everything is doing the complete opposite to what I would have expected. Houses up, second hand car prices up, stock market up, lots of things in short supply, people out spending money like it is going out of fashion.

The only explanation for this is the QE, 0.1% interest rates, furlough money and bounce back loan money.

I totally agree that inflation has to be soaring, there is no way it can be at the levels the government claims with the amount of money sloshing around.

I am trying to buy a garden shed at the moment, nowhere has any stock. Trying to buy some garden furniture and I am being quoted a June delivery date. Crazy.

They aren't really, they've not been allowed out for a year, hence lots of people have repurposed money they may have spent in commuting, weekday lunches, nights out etc. on things to improve their quality of life, whether that's a house extension or a new car.

If they were out spending the govt. wouldn't be looking at ways to get people to spend instead of saving

[vulture1]

stichill99 said:

I have been buying metal box section last week to make barriers. It has doubled in price in a year! Inflation is massively more than official figures! I just wonder when or if reality will ever strike!

I got an email from a company that supplied and fitted my garage units. They had put up their prices 15% due to materials cost as well .
What we need is a bit of wage increase to balance it out otherwise we are all just getting poorer again like in 2008

[Scootersp]

Stagflation..........could see assets (lot's of which are a bit bubbly?) devalue a chunk whilst food, electric etc prices rise considerably?

Furlough/support ending (if it does) in September might be interesting.

[xeny]

vulture1 said:

What we need is a bit of wage increase to balance it out otherwise we are all just getting poorer again like in 2008

Long term is there any reason people in different parts of the globe should experience different levels of wages/cost of living? If the answer is no, that tells you where wages/cost of living are ultimately headed.

[105.4]

stichill99 said:

I have been buying metal box section last week to make barriers. It has doubled in price in a year! Inflation is massively more than official figures! I just wonder when or if reality will ever strike!

I’d noticed steel prices too. Add to that food & drink up 20-25% over the last 12-15 months.

Pain is coming, and this time it’s going to be utterly brutal, (or Governments will borrow / print money their way out of it).

[105.4]

Genuine question:

Could we ever see Europe doing an Argentina (of varying degrees)?

[anonymous-user]

vulture1 said:

I got an email from a company that supplied and fitted my garage units. They had put up their prices 15% due to materials cost as well .
What we need is a bit of wage increase to balance it out otherwise we are all just getting poorer again like in 2008

I think that is exactly what is going to happen, the rich people will be the ones who hold assets, multiple houses, Rolex watches, old Porsches, Crypto, shares etc as this is where people are going to put their money.

If you don't own any assets then sorry, the cost of living is definitely going to increase due to inflation and you will be a lot worse off.

As for people holding any significant amounts of cash... Debt will get inflated away, and as per usual the sensible and frugal will lose out.

Wages will be going nowhere.

[Condi]

vulture1 said:

I got an email from a company that supplied and fitted my garage units. They had put up their prices 15% due to materials cost as well .
What we need is a bit of wage increase to balance it out otherwise we are all just getting poorer again like in 2008

It doesn't really make the news much, but there is a st load of inflation coming at some point. Look at these basic commodities - there is an opinion forming we are entering what is known as a commodities "super cycle", whereby demand out-strips supply for an extended period of time.

US Lumber futures;



Copper futures



US Wheat futures

Edited by Condi on Monday 19th April 14:36

[btdk5]

105.4 said:

stichill99 said:

I have been buying metal box section last week to make barriers. It has doubled in price in a year! Inflation is massively more than official figures! I just wonder when or if reality will ever strike!

I’d noticed steel prices too. Add to that food & drink up 20-25% over the last 12-15 months.

Pain is coming, and this time it’s going to be utterly brutal, (or Governments will borrow / print money their way out of it).

What food and drink prices are up 25%?

[105.4]

btdk5 said:

What food and drink prices are up 25%?

Bread, tinned stuffs, rice, pasta, wine and beer are the ones that I’ve noticed the largest increases in over the past 12 months. Costco, Parfits, Batleys, Bookers, they’re all now noticeably more expensive than this time last year.

[stichill99]

Last year we were selling beef for £3.35 a kg. The cattle we sold this week are £4.25 a kg. Scarcity being the reason and Irish cattle going elsewhere in Europe. Numbers have dwindled after years of poor returns but very much getting dearer just now. Well above the governments 2 % inflation.

[vulture1]

Condi said:

vulture1 said:

I got an email from a company that supplied and fitted my garage units. They had put up their prices 15% due to materials cost as well .
What we need is a bit of wage increase to balance it out otherwise we are all just getting poorer again like in 2008

It doesn't really make the news much, but there is a st load of inflation coming at some point. Look at these basic commodities - there is an opinion forming we are entering what is known as a commodities "super cycle", whereby demand out-strips supply for an extended period of time.

US Lumber futures;



Copper futures



US Wheat futures

Edited by Condi on Monday 19th April 14:36

Hence why I now only hold 1 month of actuall cash in the bank and every month spare money gets pumped into shares. But Joe bloggs is going to be alot worse off.

[lockhart flawse]

China is responsible for a lot of food inflation. They are importing huge quantities of meat to compensate for collapse of their pig herd because of numerous outbreaks of swine fever. In the case of beef they imported 2.026m tons last year, 26% more than the year before. For 2021 the USDA projected a Chinese requirement of 3.1 m tons of imported beef which they wont be able to get but they will get as much as is available because they are paying more. Imports for the first quarter of 2021 were up over 30% compared to 2020. The upshot is that a Brazilian beef product I paid $28.50 a carton for at the end of 2019 now costs me $39.00 and there is no sign that prices will fall back. China is the best game in town according to the Brazilians.

And of course the price increases get passed down the line until they hit the shelves. By the way it also explains why threats by UK supermarkets about product sourced from Amazonia arent taken that seriously in Brazil. China will take it all.

[mybrainhurts]

stichill99 said:

I have been buying metal box section last week to make barriers.

Consider digging a moat as well.