Realising big gains in funds - How much higher can they go?
Discussion
I have recently been reviewing my ISA and many of the funds I went into when Covid struck have done really well.
When I look at the charts they seem almost vertical in some of them?
I was listening to Jeremy Grantham on various you tube videos and much of what he says makes sense. Essentially he is saying the time to get out of positions is when optimism is very high and that everything will continue to go up. There is isnt much anyone can do to boost markets further? The downside risk is stronger than ever.
The US market stands out as overvalued and I am tempted to realise profit in these funds and keep in cash - even with inflation running high.
Whats everyones thoughts?
When I look at the charts they seem almost vertical in some of them?
I was listening to Jeremy Grantham on various you tube videos and much of what he says makes sense. Essentially he is saying the time to get out of positions is when optimism is very high and that everything will continue to go up. There is isnt much anyone can do to boost markets further? The downside risk is stronger than ever.
The US market stands out as overvalued and I am tempted to realise profit in these funds and keep in cash - even with inflation running high.
Whats everyones thoughts?
There are also plenty of YouTube videos giving strong evidence that trying to time the market generally leads to a worse outcome. This gives rise to the saying 'time in the market beats timing the market'.
Of course, you could have some special insight that others don't possess or you could be lucky and outperform the market by selling and buying at the right time.
Is your investment short term or long term?
Of course, you could have some special insight that others don't possess or you could be lucky and outperform the market by selling and buying at the right time.
Is your investment short term or long term?
LeoSayer said:
There are also plenty of YouTube videos giving strong evidence that trying to time the market generally leads to a worse outcome. This gives rise to the saying 'time in the market beats timing the market'.
Of course, you could have some special insight that others don't possess or you could be lucky and outperform the market by selling and buying at the right time.
Is your investment short term or long term?
It’s not just selling out but also when to buy back in.Of course, you could have some special insight that others don't possess or you could be lucky and outperform the market by selling and buying at the right time.
Is your investment short term or long term?
Nothing wrong with taking some profits. But you need to reinvest. If you don’t time the sell and buy really well then you can see why staying in is easier.
It’s probably better to avoid buying in much volume at ATH on the 150 DMA.
But even I get told that weighting cost averaging like that is pointless too.
Hmmm
Abacus21 said:
I dont think there is any chart in history for what is going on right now with the melt up. Oh... wait... yes... Japan in the 1980's.
I would rather be nearly right then definately wrong
Currently there's no where else to make money than equities, no where. That's what keeps the snowball growing :-) I would rather be nearly right then definately wrong
Rebalancing your portfolio would seem a sensible approach. Skim off some of the larger gains and spread them across your other current funds, or invest in some different funds that reduce any concentration that exists.
I'm no expert but the guy who manages my pension is - and that's what he does.
I'm no expert but the guy who manages my pension is - and that's what he does.
I keep telling myself to invest as I was fortunate enough to win a nice sum of money but then I listen to countless experts saying the market is at all time highs which makes no sense with covid etc. Ask yourself if the economy is doing so well why are interest rates at zero and why is furlow,qe etc still going on?
The above graph summarizes it nicely. If you need the money in the very near future, then great. Cash out now.
If you don't need the money right now, but can afford to lose it and like a gamble then sure. Sell, hope the market goes down, and then try to buy back in at the right time. But that's largely a matter of luck more than judgement.
Personally, every single time I've tried the latter I've lost money. And please don't ask me about the Apple shares I sold to go into Tesla at $850
For me, just sitting on it has been by some margin my most successful strategy.
If you don't need the money right now, but can afford to lose it and like a gamble then sure. Sell, hope the market goes down, and then try to buy back in at the right time. But that's largely a matter of luck more than judgement.
Personally, every single time I've tried the latter I've lost money. And please don't ask me about the Apple shares I sold to go into Tesla at $850
For me, just sitting on it has been by some margin my most successful strategy.
deckster said:
The above graph summarizes it nicely. If you need the money in the very near future, then great. Cash out now.
If you don't need the money right now, but can afford to lose it and like a gamble then sure. Sell, hope the market goes down, and then try to buy back in at the right time. But that's largely a matter of luck more than judgement.
Personally, every single time I've tried the latter I've lost money. And please don't ask me about the Apple shares I sold to go into Tesla at $850
For me, just sitting on it has been by some margin my most successful strategy.
Yep, same approach and experience here.If you don't need the money right now, but can afford to lose it and like a gamble then sure. Sell, hope the market goes down, and then try to buy back in at the right time. But that's largely a matter of luck more than judgement.
Personally, every single time I've tried the latter I've lost money. And please don't ask me about the Apple shares I sold to go into Tesla at $850
For me, just sitting on it has been by some margin my most successful strategy.
A long ago gave up trying to time the market or select the right stock or fund manager.
Now it's all in global equity index trackers.
How about a linear Y scale and running up to the present day.
Or ~ 10yr straddling each cycle end in a linear Y axis chart?
The crashes at the time are significant.
Also 1930 - 1955. Yes it came back... 25 years later! Maybe 35 years corrected for inflation.
That’s a good chunk of a working lifetime.
Yes yes I get the sentiment. Risky to sell to try time.
Anyone who has the bulk of any current investment bought in from cash in say the last 5 years, is well exposed to having bought high!
Or ~ 10yr straddling each cycle end in a linear Y axis chart?
The crashes at the time are significant.
Also 1930 - 1955. Yes it came back... 25 years later! Maybe 35 years corrected for inflation.
That’s a good chunk of a working lifetime.
Yes yes I get the sentiment. Risky to sell to try time.
Anyone who has the bulk of any current investment bought in from cash in say the last 5 years, is well exposed to having bought high!
stichill99 said:
I keep telling myself to invest as I was fortunate enough to win a nice sum of money but then I listen to countless experts saying the market is at all time highs which makes no sense with covid etc. Ask yourself if the economy is doing so well why are interest rates at zero and why is furlow,qe etc still going on?
The OP says he got into funds at the start of Covid. Assuming he wasn't exactly perfectly at the start and out by a few weeks why wouldn't it make sense? Covid and the initial panic saw lots of companies, the components of funds, shed a load of value. Two examples.Amazon, In March 2020 they were about 10-15% off their all time high due to the mass panic. They since doubled. Probably the same for lots of tech companies and hence funds.
RDSB or Shell as they are better known took a 50% hit, in the UK down from over £20/share to ~£10/share. As an aside I could have swore i bought in around £9 but the charts dont show it so I must be dreaming. They are back up 50%. A short term swing allowed people buying RDSB to secure a nice dividend payer at a huge discount.
Point is that who you hear on the news are often not experts, language like "crash" and "Market annihilation" can often mean a 10-20% drop. If you can live with that volatility then fill ye'r boots and come back in a few years. If you think you’ll ever find the perfect moment to invest better forget the stock market and keep your spare cash in a bank account.
cavey76 said:
RDSB or Shell as they are better known took a 50% hit, in the UK down from over £20/share to ~£10/share. As an aside I could have swore i bought in around £9 but the charts dont show it so I must be dreaming. They are back up 50%. A short term swing allowed people buying RDSB to secure a nice dividend payer at a huge discount.
Except IIRC their famed dividends were drastically cut. In addition oil is unpopular because of the general move away from nasty CO2 stuff. I don't see RDSB getting back to where it was (£24?) for quite a while.Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff