S&P buy in point?
Discussion
Carbon Sasquatch said:
Don't forget that the FX rate has also moved quite a bit in the last year too. Not sure what that means vs trying to call the bottom but if US interest rates go up, then sterling could fall even further.
Yep, the fall in the S&P has been slightly offset (buying in) by the weak £. It’s easy to forget about purchasing power when buying US stuff.The tech stocks in the S&P are also still slightly inflating the median value (is it PE?). I read an interesting post recently that if you took the tech out of the S&P most of the other companies are cheap.
Interesting times, and history shows how far the S&P has dropped in all bear markets - but also how high and quickly it can recover. Best bet IMO is drip from here and lump if it drops as much as 2008
Phooey said:
Less racey - and less volatile is just buy/drip/possible lump into a cheap global index - it will contain mostly US anyway.
Or more racey - buy the Nasdaq index ‘if’ the s
t hits the fan - some historical returns (rebounds) not to be sniffed at!
I have VWRL.Or more racey - buy the Nasdaq index ‘if’ the s
t hits the fan - some historical returns (rebounds) not to be sniffed at!I am just trying to offset the buy in at £66 on VUSA!
Carbon Sasquatch said:
Don't forget that the FX rate has also moved quite a bit in the last year too. Not sure what that means vs trying to call the bottom but if US interest rates go up, then sterling could fall even further.
Yes, down to nearly 1.20 now.
Helpful for the big UK businesses who do their accounting in USD (dividend FX conversion boosted too) and also those firms doing a large portion of their business in the US.
Edited by Jon39 on Wednesday 15th June 12:09
Phooey said:
Currency. Strong pound is why VUSA is only -12%.
Huh ? In my opinion setting the global market drops , and USA in particular . I am inclined to propose based on considering what a basket case country Uk is becoming, bending over to every whim , judge, minority group opinion , hands-out-scrounging-entitlement attitude culture of the massively increasing populous ...etc : that the UK pound is doomed to these and much lower future levels for decades . Hence I'll sit on the side for a while for more US markets falls and then go all in again at some point before the GBP gets to parity with USD .
someone said 2019 levels ( for S/P etc ) ? That looks like a good starting point
PM3 said:
Huh ?
In my opinion setting the global market drops , and USA in particular . I am inclined to propose 9 based on considering what a basket case country Uk is becoming, bending over to every whim , judge, minority group opinion , hands-out-scrounging-entitlement attitude culture of the massively increasing populous ...etc : that the UK pound is doomed to these and much lower future levels for decades . Hence I'll sit on the side for a while for more US markets falls and then go all in again at some point before the GBP gets to parity with USD.
In my opinion setting the global market drops , and USA in particular . I am inclined to propose 9 based on considering what a basket case country Uk is becoming, bending over to every whim , judge, minority group opinion , hands-out-scrounging-entitlement attitude culture of the massively increasing populous ...etc : that the UK pound is doomed to these and much lower future levels for decades . Hence I'll sit on the side for a while for more US markets falls and then go all in again at some point before the GBP gets to parity with USD.
Don't dismiss the UK market opportunities that easily.
Having an overall +18% YTD, perhaps I can remind you that some of the biggest UK businesses trade globally.
Some even do very little business in the UK.
A falling GBP becomes a helpful, additional tailwind for them.
Jon39 said:
PM3 said:
Huh ?
In my opinion setting the global market drops , and USA in particular . I am inclined to propose 9 based on considering what a basket case country Uk is becoming, bending over to every whim , judge, minority group opinion , hands-out-scrounging-entitlement attitude culture of the massively increasing populous ...etc : that the UK pound is doomed to these and much lower future levels for decades . Hence I'll sit on the side for a while for more US markets falls and then go all in again at some point before the GBP gets to parity with USD.
In my opinion setting the global market drops , and USA in particular . I am inclined to propose 9 based on considering what a basket case country Uk is becoming, bending over to every whim , judge, minority group opinion , hands-out-scrounging-entitlement attitude culture of the massively increasing populous ...etc : that the UK pound is doomed to these and much lower future levels for decades . Hence I'll sit on the side for a while for more US markets falls and then go all in again at some point before the GBP gets to parity with USD.
Don't dismiss the UK market opportunities that easily.
Having an overall +18% YTD, perhaps I can remind you that some of the biggest UK businesses trade globally.
Some even do very little business in the UK.
A falling GBP becomes a helpful, additional tailwind for them.
A combination of USD and GBP income should be useful long term, so I've been buying US Dividend Aristocrats in my pension. Whilst volatility is generally lower for them than the market, some of the yields are quite attractive at current prices. DYOR etc
I told myself I'd buy chunks (big for me, probably tiny for most of you) at 3800, 3600 and 3400. I've not bought any yet.
The reason I haven't is because I don't really have a clue what I'm doing. I set those figures without really thinking about what the contributing factors might be and now we are at that mid point of 3600 there still looks to be too much negativity in the near future for me. Like most I'm just plucking figures out my arse.
The reason I haven't is because I don't really have a clue what I'm doing. I set those figures without really thinking about what the contributing factors might be and now we are at that mid point of 3600 there still looks to be too much negativity in the near future for me. Like most I'm just plucking figures out my arse.
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