Stock market in 1 year: Will it be better or worse?
Poll: Stock market in 1 year: Will it be better or worse?
Total Members Polled: 189
Discussion
matt21 said:
I would have thought all the winter doom and gloom is now baked in,.
Did you make that assumption before J Powells Jackson Hole speech yesterday. with the subtle reference to "keeping at it" ( Volcker) ?In your position, I would likely seek professional advice from someone with experience rather than an internet poll on a car forum?
matt21 said:
Having lost a fortune on the stock market, I’m considering topping up significantly to bring down my averages. I would have thought all the winter doom and gloom is now baked in, and things will be better in a year but keen to see what you think.
You clearly didn’t watch the Chairman of the Fed yesterday. Essentially they are looking to crash the economy to bring inflation back to the target of 2%. And he was pretty clear, their policy of rate hikes and QT was long term, and no reverse of policy in the short term.The Fed want to curtail demand, and that will ease inflation. And the last thing they want is years of high inflation like the 70’s. Powell is a huge fan of Paul Volcker, who was chairman of the Fed at the end of the 70’s, and he basically crashed the economy to solve inflation. And it worked. Yes, it was painful, but it solved the inflation problem.
Edited by BorkBorkBork on Saturday 27th August 16:08
dingg said:
clubsport said:
In your position, I would likely seek professional advice from someone with experience rather than an internet poll on a car forum?
Why? Are their crystal balls better?
;~)
dingg said:
clubsport said:
In your position, I would likely seek professional advice from someone with experience rather than an internet poll on a car forum?
Why? Are their crystal balls better?
;~)
When things are going down the professionals will tell you 'Ah well we don't have crystal balls you know'. But either way they get paid, and on our risk.
Which brings me onto - if economists are experts on economies, why aren't they the richest men in the world?
And this forum, and many others on PH, are nothing to do about cars.
I think the markets will fall. Then they’ll go back up again. I don’t know when these events will happen and to what magnitude so I’ll stay invested.
It’s not helped by media talk, such as the markets having tumbled / plunged 3% on Friday. 3%?! If we were talking about my weight, that would probably be the difference between pre/post morning s
t.
It’s not helped by media talk, such as the markets having tumbled / plunged 3% on Friday. 3%?! If we were talking about my weight, that would probably be the difference between pre/post morning s
t. Speaking to quite a few business owners lately and their energy bills are truly frightening. A lot are going to pack in production. I spoke to a potato farmer whose cold store is going from £100'000 to approx £800'000. The cost of growing potatoes has doubled this year with fert.sprays.fuel etc. He is stopping growing because the market future prices does not come near making it profitable. Replicate this across country and it is truly frightening!
I am with - About the same.
If the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, I would go for better.
If the war ended with a Nuclear exchange, then I would go for much worse.
Worldwide inflation alone, means that there are some winners. Those with no disposable income will suffer most, but do not have the biggest impact on equities.
If the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, I would go for better.
If the war ended with a Nuclear exchange, then I would go for much worse.
Worldwide inflation alone, means that there are some winners. Those with no disposable income will suffer most, but do not have the biggest impact on equities.
clubsport said:
matt21 said:
I would have thought all the winter doom and gloom is now baked in,.
Did you make that assumption before J Powells Jackson Hole speech yesterday. with the subtle reference to "keeping at it" ( Volcker) ?“Priced in” or “baked in” are proven to be completely impossible states given what happened on Friday, when USA’s FRB’s Mr Powell basically re-phrased what he’d said weeks ago.
The markets are running so heavily on greed and fear right now, they’re flapping around based on how someone phrases the same messages.
You only need to look at their plots of expected inflation, vs actual, at each FRB meeting over the last 18 months, and the same for expected interest rate rises, vs actual.
It’s not getting better.
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