BOE 15th December Rate Announcement

[anonymous-user]

It's that time again, predictions on the 15th of December BoE interest rate announcement?

I am going to go for another 0.5% rise.

[BobToc]

Yep.

[gotoPzero]

US CPI figures are in - they are at 7.1%

Almost ready for a pivot... defo ready for a slow down.

[jamiedimonBTClover]

Think we are looking at 50bps or 0.5% from all the mains this week.

The Fed seem to be looking @ 0.5% tomorrow, the the ECB, BoE and SNB all doing 0.5% on Thursday.

The big questions are what's in the speeches. Can't see Powell mentioning pivot (higher for longer probably - but slowing pace of hikes). They are still waaaaaaaay above 2%. ECB have to deal with EUR5trillion of QT (could be interesting), and who knows where Bailey may go. Probably managing the nutter who will vote for 0.15% or 0.25%.

[jamiedimonBTClover]

gotoPzero said:

US CPI figures are in - they are at 7.1%

Almost ready for a pivot... defo ready for a slow down.

UKs also in, lower than expected at 10.7%. Steeper drops all round.

Still think it's the week of fifties.

[gotoPzero]

US raises 0.5%. So a slow down is on the cards.

[Fusion777]

0.5% rise, predictions seem to be. Not long to find out.

[G-wiz]

Question; if it is 0.5% rise today, will mortgage lenders have already priced this in, or will we see typical 2 or 5 year fixes rise again?

[Fusion777]

G-wiz said:

Question; if it is 0.5% rise today, will mortgage lenders have already priced this in, or will we see typical 2 or 5 year fixes rise again?

I'd guess a lot of it is priced in now. Rates have actually been dropping for a good few weeks (though I've only looked at HSBC).

[richardxjr]

G-wiz said:

Question; if it is 0.5% rise today, will mortgage lenders have already priced this in, or will we see typical 2 or 5 year fixes rise again?

Brokers' view via MSE
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/12/wha...

Wonder if savings rates will continue to improve?

Edited by richardxjr on Thursday 15th December 11:44

[jamiedimonBTClover]

3.5% base it is (2 down 2 to go). +0.5% hike.

[anonymous-user]

Who would have thought they would have just copied the Federal Reserve yet again?

[Fusion777]

jamiedimonBTClover said:

3.5% base it is (2 down 2 to go). +0.5% hike.

Think you were quicker than the BBC there!

[jamiedimonBTClover]

Joey Deacon said:

Who would have thought they would have just copied the Federal Reserve yet again?

Vote split 3 ways.... It's not cut and dried.

Anyway, 4/4 from Tuesday prediction (although not the hardest to guess this time around):

14/12 Fed 0.5% Raise (4.25-2.5%)
15/12 SNB 0.5% Raise (1% base)
15/12 BoE 0.5% Raise (3.5% Base)
15/12 ECB 0.5% Raise (2% base)

Also today, but not quite as heavily watched):

15/12 Norway 0.25% Raise (2.75% base)

Inflation targets raised everywhere, still above 2% beyond 2025.

Edited by jamiedimonBTClover on Thursday 15th December 13:47

[G-wiz]

Next interest rate (rise) decision coming 26-Jan?

Any thoughts on what happens on 26-Jan? 0.5% rise again, or a slower 0.25 increase?

[anonymous-user]

An exact copy of whatever the Fed does as it is the day after. I am going to go for 0.25%

[G-wiz]

Is interest rate decision every 6 weeks?
Last one was 15-Dec-22, so why is decision not coming today?
It seems it is next week, 02-Feb

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

[gotoPzero]

8 meetings a year IIRC.

[G-wiz]

gotoPzero said:

8 meetings a year IIRC.

Thanks, so an average of 6.5 weeks between meetings over the year.

[Mr Whippy]

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cm...


Some will see it as bullish that they’re forecasting 0.25%, but it’s still part of a record level of rate rises with record levels of inflation, now embedding itself in services in the USA.