Discussion
Chaps,
Simple one. I bought a bunch of BP shares back at the start of 2021. By no more than serendipity they have done tidily and provided a good hedge against daft energy prices over the last couple of years.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
Simple one. I bought a bunch of BP shares back at the start of 2021. By no more than serendipity they have done tidily and provided a good hedge against daft energy prices over the last couple of years.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
2Btoo said:
Chaps,
Simple one. I bought a bunch of BP shares back at the start of 2021. By no more than serendipity they have done tidily and provided a good hedge against daft energy prices over the last couple of years.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
Profits mainly made from oil.Simple one. I bought a bunch of BP shares back at the start of 2021. By no more than serendipity they have done tidily and provided a good hedge against daft energy prices over the last couple of years.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
Oil prices have been depressed (correlated to the share price over the last 6m)
But with tensions in the Middle East, the share price has started to increase, nearly 470.
New CEO who was instumental in the path they are taking, and has publicly spoken about continuing.
The move to towards a green company is laudible, but profits are not as high, so future growth may be stunted.
wait till they are closer to 500?
No advice, just my observations having looked at their shares
If you bought them as a hedge against energy prices rising then surely you should still keep them?
If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
If you had the money in your hand as cash, would you spend it on BP shares? If not, why are you holding on to them? Sell them & put it into something you think will do better. I ended up with shares in 12 different companies just because I bought into sell offs like BT & British Gas & I realised it was better to cull them & just concentrate on a few - Shell was my BP equivalent.
Is CGT an issue? if you sell them all you will probably have a CGT hit so I would have been selling them off over the years to utilise any CGT allowance, unless you have already been doing this.
Is CGT an issue? if you sell them all you will probably have a CGT hit so I would have been selling them off over the years to utilise any CGT allowance, unless you have already been doing this.
Two quotes by Milton Friedman:
There is one and only one social responsibility of business - to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it . . . engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.
and
An executive spending company money on social causes is, in effect, spending somebody else's money for their own purposes: with the effect that it reduces returns to shareholders.
There is one and only one social responsibility of business - to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it . . . engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.
and
An executive spending company money on social causes is, in effect, spending somebody else's money for their own purposes: with the effect that it reduces returns to shareholders.
asfault said:
If you bought them as a hedge against energy prices rising then surely you should still keep them?
If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
Is the correct answer.If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
Leave them to do their thing, safe in the knowledge that you bought them at the right time and they continue to serve multiple purposes.
For what its worth I can't see household bills coming down any time soon, and if they do it will be very marginal.
Again, all IMO.
OddCat said:
If BP quit their woke, net zero, clean energy virtue signalling nonsense their share price will re-rate upwards in line with the offer oil majors who haven't fallen into that trap and arent wasting billions on such stupidity
They could then easily be £7 a share.
Username checks out. They could then easily be £7 a share.
The Ferret said:
asfault said:
If you bought them as a hedge against energy prices rising then surely you should still keep them?
If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
Is the correct answer.If energy prices fall you arnt as out of pocket with lower hoisehold bills but your shares drop a bit.
The other was to look at it as a hedge is against interest rate falls.
If interest rates fall then a company paying a good % dividend will be in demand.
The fact you bought them cheap is where the right move was made.
All imo.
Leave them to do their thing, safe in the knowledge that you bought them at the right time and they continue to serve multiple purposes.
For what its worth I can't see household bills coming down any time soon, and if they do it will be very marginal.
Again, all IMO.
CGT on long term holdings can also be a significant issue as I mentioned before.
Just had a look on tv.
I dont really trade single stocks often, but just a quick glance it looks to me like its been making lower highs and lower lows since the 08 crash.
Each time the high has been 15% (ish) lower.
Might it rally to ath, yep. But if you asked me do I want to buy or sell right now, I would say sell.
But I am notoriously sh*t at picking single stocks!!!
Its started to dip under the 200ma again in November.
I dont really trade single stocks often, but just a quick glance it looks to me like its been making lower highs and lower lows since the 08 crash.
Each time the high has been 15% (ish) lower.
Might it rally to ath, yep. But if you asked me do I want to buy or sell right now, I would say sell.
But I am notoriously sh*t at picking single stocks!!!
Its started to dip under the 200ma again in November.
2Btoo said:
Simple one. I bought a bunch of BP shares back at the start of 2021. By no more than serendipity they have done tidily and provided a good hedge against daft energy prices over the last couple of years.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now, but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
The question is how much more do they have left in them? Energy prices are coming down and probably will do so for the coming few months or more. It's it a good time to take profits and put the money elsewhere, or hold on for longer?
I don't need the money now, but don't want to lose my gains by sitting on them for too long.
I have held oil shares in my portfolio for decades. Yes, of course it does have to be accepted that they are cyclical, but if they form only part of your investments, can certainly be worth holding long-term.
Timing the market - If you sell when you think a high point has been reached, will you then buy again just before the next oil boom occurs ? Usually traders only realise what is happening, after a significant price bounce has already occurred.
Strong income. Shell had a tremendous record of never cutting their dividend for over 60 years from about 1950.
That period included many oil price crashes. I think it was the pandemic, which put an end to their spectacular record.
Big oil does give you exposure to the US$.
One Shell dividend not long ago increased by 44%. After conversion into Pounds, our UK increase was 62%.
gotoPzero said:
Just had a look on tv.
I dont really trade single stocks often, but just a quick glance it looks to me like its been making lower highs and lower lows since the 08 crash.
Each time the high has been 15% (ish) lower.
Might it rally to ath, yep. But if you asked me do I want to buy or sell right now, I would say sell.
But I am notoriously poor at picking single stocks!!!
Its started to dip under the 200ma again in November.
I dont really trade single stocks often, but just a quick glance it looks to me like its been making lower highs and lower lows since the 08 crash.
Each time the high has been 15% (ish) lower.
Might it rally to ath, yep. But if you asked me do I want to buy or sell right now, I would say sell.
But I am notoriously poor at picking single stocks!!!
Its started to dip under the 200ma again in November.
You seem to judge the prospects for a business, by looking at daily share prices.
If you were buying a farm, you would want to know what financial annual return you hope to achieve, in relation to your initial investment. No one would call at the farm every day, telling you today's selling price.
Both of the British oil majors are enormous businesses. The managements are well aware they are steering cyclical businesses.
There are huge sums of money involved. Pre- tax annual profits for BP run at about $15 billion and Shell at around $30 billion.
oldaudi said:
The note 'Unstable dividend track record', refers to two events;
2020 pandemic - The dividend was reduced for the first time in a decade.
They were not alone at that time. Many businesses cancelled dividends completely.
2010 - A catastrophe occurred at an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.
There was defective cement on the well, and the legal outcome found fault mostly with BP, but also rig operator Transocean and contractor Halliburton. The explosion killed 11 workers and the subsequent oil spill caused deadful damage to coastlines.
From an investors point of view, if this incident had occurred to a small oil exploration business, it would have soon been in receivership. Very large established businesses are more likely to have the financial ability to survive disasters. There are always exceptions though, Kodak is one. They didn't see such tough competition coming. It quickly became a disaster for them.
Shell raised its dividend as it reported annual profits for 2023 of more than $28bn.
Europe’s largest oil and gas company said on Thursday that adjusted earnings were $28.3bn, down about a third from the record set in 2022 but higher than any other year since 2011.
Shell’s adjusted earnings of $7.3bn in the final three months of the year exceeded average analyst estimates of $6.04bn.
Shell, like most of its rivals, has used bumper profits from the past two years to embark on a huge share repurchasing scheme.
On Thursday, it announced a further $3.5bn of share buybacks and increased its dividend by 4 per cent.
Let's see what BP does next week when they report their Q4 results
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