Best stock or fund as proxy to Trump or Harris win?
Discussion
Who do you *want* to win?
Stick a tenner on the other to assuage any disappointment
I firmly believe in the Allan Litchman methodology, which tells me Harris will win (despite some blathering from Trumpettes on the 47th thread!)
Does that help you?
Stick a tenner on the other to assuage any disappointment
I firmly believe in the Allan Litchman methodology, which tells me Harris will win (despite some blathering from Trumpettes on the 47th thread!)
Does that help you?
BoRED S2upid said:
Well Trump is domehow favourite at the bookies do put a bet on Harris. As for stocks it’s all priced in. Always is.
It's not all 'priced in' because markets always react...I won't be shuffling anything around on the basis of who wins the US election. Partly because I don't know who will win, and partly because if I buy or sell anything there's a 50% chance I got it wrong!
Toying with moving my premium bonds money (terrible returns but safe) into my HL SSISA which is split between two American funds, S&P 500 and an American index, both performing very well.
Is now a bad time to consolidate savings into the two American indexes? Any educated idea on the level and longevity of any volatility?
Is now a bad time to consolidate savings into the two American indexes? Any educated idea on the level and longevity of any volatility?
Mark83 said:
Toying with moving my premium bonds money (terrible returns but safe) into my HL SSISA which is split between two American funds, S&P 500 and an American index, both performing very well.
Is now a bad time to consolidate savings into the two American indexes? Any educated idea on the level and longevity of any volatility?
I'm not sure you will get erudite predictions on a UK motoring forum about what the indexes are doing at this precise point....Is now a bad time to consolidate savings into the two American indexes? Any educated idea on the level and longevity of any volatility?
but FWIW, I would ask what you had the PB money for?
If it is money you might need access to in the next 1-3 years (roughly), I'd be inclined to leave it in PBs. You *should* get around 4%, which isn't terrible for 'safe' cash.
If not, then sure, go invest it!
I would be more inclined to go for a low cost global fund, but that is more a personal preference (& I do have some American funds....& of course a global fund is likely 60-70% in American anyway!)
Outside the weird and delusional world of US media where the polls are neck and neck Trump wins this by a landslide.
If Harris wins there is cheating going on somewhere.
I think if Trump wins the markets go up, but probably priced in already and any extra will be across the board anyway.
If you fancy a gamble on the results go on William hill. I'd have a bet on Trump but I've got a suspicion they are going to try and steal it somehow with dodgy mail in ballots or bused in voters without ID.
If Harris wins there is cheating going on somewhere.
I think if Trump wins the markets go up, but probably priced in already and any extra will be across the board anyway.
If you fancy a gamble on the results go on William hill. I'd have a bet on Trump but I've got a suspicion they are going to try and steal it somehow with dodgy mail in ballots or bused in voters without ID.
Porsche-worm said:
Outside the weird and delusional world of US media where the polls are neck and neck Trump wins this by a landslide.
If Harris wins there is cheating going on somewhere.
I think if Trump wins the markets go up, but probably priced in already and any extra will be across the board anyway.
If you fancy a gamble on the results go on William hill. I'd have a bet on Trump but I've got a suspicion they are going to try and steal it somehow with dodgy mail in ballots or bused in voters without ID.
Ah, a projection straight from the House of MAGA If Harris wins there is cheating going on somewhere.
I think if Trump wins the markets go up, but probably priced in already and any extra will be across the board anyway.
If you fancy a gamble on the results go on William hill. I'd have a bet on Trump but I've got a suspicion they are going to try and steal it somehow with dodgy mail in ballots or bused in voters without ID.
This really belongs on the 45 thread, but polls are fickle things….fact is that trump has done absolutely nothing to sway or encourage “floating voters” across from the last time when (checks notes) around 7M people fired him.
Harris-Walz have been inspiring people MASSIVELY since they took the nomination. Trump has seen diminishing crowds, word salad and strong signs of dementia.
You may not like the approach, but the 13 Keys to the White House is a pretty solid indicator: the only one it failed was the “hanging chad” steal (which really was a steal)
Harris will cruise it. Bit of social unrest from MAGA nutters, with people (like you!) suggestion it is stolen, but without him being the incumbent, should be relatively harmless.
Trump can then toddle off to court room dramas and Big Macs for the rest of his days….or abscond to somewhere to play golf until he expires.
OP - sorry for the minor diversion - I doubt the markets will see big movement either way.
mikeiow said:
Harris-Walz have been inspiring people MASSIVELY since they took the nomination.
Mostly because they happen to be alive, unlike the current President.mikeiow said:
Trump can then toddle off to court room dramas and Big Macs for the rest of his days...
Largely on matters cooked up by the Democrats who feel the only way to be sure of winning is to put their only opponent in jail. Not very democratic; next they'll try to get him jailed for wearing blue socks on Sundays.Overall I think the US markets will carry on in much the same way regardless of who wins. Trump, because he's a businessman and the markets are all about business (look what they did under his last tenure), or Harris because the uncertainty is over for a few years.
Porsche-worm said:
mikeiow said:
I've got a rather bad case of TDS so actually belive Harris has a chance of winning, anyway i've got to get on, i'm going to a gender reveal!
OP - sorry for the minor diversion - I doubt the markets will see big movement either way.
OP - sorry for the minor diversion - I doubt the markets will see big movement either way.
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