Budget 28/10/26 - how painful?

[OIC]

Sure it's a long way away, but there's no substitute for a good old PH mash up so the longer the better.

Just how painful do we all think the 1st Healey budget in October will be?

I'm thinking he'll go all in from the off, as Andy has plans and no money to get the shiny things in place before 2029.

Lube up lads.

[juice]

The last Labour Healey Chancellor was also a former defence secretary, presided over us going Cap in Hand to the IMF and threaten to Tax property investors "Till the pips squeak"

So yeah, Lube up indeed.

[gotoPzero]

Burnham is anti car, anti small business and anti "wealth".

So expect death by 1000 cuts, IMHO.

It will all be aimed at working people or boomers with big pensions / property portfolios etc.

He has a massive overdraft to sort out before he spends any more, so its going to be double pain.

[CoolHands]

I won’t be spending any money in the economy other than what’s forced ie sky high energy costs etc. So it won’t be helping the economy, as many others like me I’m sure.

[jules_s]

Most likely all delayed 'can kicked down the road' tax in my opinion

More pension stealth etc

[Sport_Turismo_GTS]

Pretty much guaranteed tax rises on the productive part of the economy to pay for the non-productive - leading to further reductions in growth.

[2Btoo]

All the above. Plus a good chunk of extra borrowing (disguised and hence plausibly denied, of course.)

[Crafty_]

I think a lot of it depends what pressure Burnham gets put under - unions are opposing a government plan for trains running with no guards : https://archive.ph/b2Omy

Backbenchers pushing Healey to revise student loans https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/08/05/he...

Unless I missed any settlement, we've still got doctors on strike because they want another big pay rise.

There's also the inevitable red tape and bureaucracy from Burnham's devolution plans.

He also appears to be supporting WASPIs too, which will also cost money.. https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/great...

Lets not forget increased defence spending too, nor the VAT discount no energy bills, apparently being funded from the now scrapped ID cards plan, which wasn't actually funded either...

So with a massive debt and deficit and some grand spending plans it seems impossible that this budget won't hurt - just a case of how much.

[tele_lover]

These idiots just don't understand how to grow an economy.

They're too obsessed with punishing aspiring or successful people.

Problem is, they're the ones who create growth!

[ooid]

UK private market is weak. Private sector labour market (most of big employers) showing a decline in employment, mostly retail and hospitality. Partly obviously higher taxes. They are literally shedding jobs monthly, which causes a weaker demand. Public added some jobs, but private sector is quite weak, and BOE seems not interested at all.

So a weak macro backdrop, falling oil prices (for now) while there is fiscal risk, Labour has not changed a behaviour of spending and never will. They will do more spending, they do not understand "borrowing" is "borrowing". Is that spending offset by tax rises ? that could further damage growth. If Its not fully offset by taxes or other mambo jambo, than obviously bond market is gonna be more erratic.

[ARH]

He's going to give away loads to his pet projects, by saying it will all be funded from cutting the cost of welfare. This will make him even more popular so he can call an election and start again. None of this will be implemented as parliament will stop for the election process. Then when the feckless who have not learnt you get nothing for free, have voted him in for 5 more years, the backbenchers will stop him being able do anything.

[Dixy]

The one thing I am sure of is changes to capital gains tax. They don't understand that having owned something for 30 years does not mean it has gone up in real terms and that if tax makes it pointless selling people won't sell and therefore the economy is further stifled

[Simpo Two]

ARH said:

He's going to give away loads to his pet projects, by saying it will all be funded from cutting the cost of welfare. This will make him even more popular so he can call an election and start again. None of this will be implemented as parliament will stop for the election process. Then when the feckless who have not learnt you get nothing for free, have voted him in for 5 more years, the backbenchers will stop him being able do anything.

The answer is clear. Everyone is taxed into poverty and then the State can put them on benefits. The socialist dream!

[Puzzles]

Dixy said:

The one thing I am sure of is changes to capital gains tax. They don't understand that having owned something for 30 years does not mean it has gone up in real terms and that if tax makes it pointless selling people won't sell and therefore the economy is further stifled

As long as you don’t die with £££

[alscar]

Whatever doesn't optically change the manifesto of whatever taxes were said they wouldn't increase.
Wont stop the addition of new ones ( or levies as appears to already been quietly suggested ).
Wealth , land , death taxes all mentioned ad nauseum but as ever it needs to be money raised now and not at some date years ahead.
Realistically CGT tax being bought into line with other tax rates ,potential ( as with dear Rachel ) to reduce the amount of TFLS available from 25% ( with caveated exclusion's such as Doctors ) , and that old favourite reducing or deleting the amount of tax relief available to higher earners iro Pensions.

[valiant]

Just wait until the Telegraph predicts what will happen and then you can discount it from actually happening.

[CoolHands]

The continual rise in taxes has helped me know I need to pass my ‘wealth’ on as we go along, so they can’t get it. For me that’s my plan, so little to tax when I meet my maker.

If govts hadn’t been the sts they are, I wouldn’t have really thought about it and my family may well have had to pay 40% tax on some of my estate. Now they will be sure to pay zero.

[Puzzles]

Surprising with all the fiscal drag there even needs to be further increases.

[Sport_Turismo_GTS]

Puzzles said:

Surprising with all the fiscal drag there even needs to be further increases.

The Labour government’s ability to spend money is legendary!

[Dixy]

Sport_Turismo_GTS said:

The government s ability to spend money is legendary!

FTFY