Please recommend some good books on Horse Racing

[Somewhatfoolish]

Yes, I intended to put this in Finance.

I feel like making money out of gambling on horses, just as a challenge. I have actually made money so far, but only through arbing bookies with betfair, which seems easy money, but I am very attacted to the idea of making money purely through betting on course. If only because of the ability to see the horses in the ring

So far I have read the following books:

1. A bloody good winner - David Nevison
2. A book very much like the above I forget the name of; it's by a cambridge graduate who lived in cambridge for ages and was hunted by a suspicious fellow
3. Betting for a living - Nick Mordin
4. Against the Crowd - Alan Potts

Where all of the above failed for me is they were, despite the details, more about gambling techniques in general: I have all relevant maths ability, bank roll management understanding, blah de blah.

Basically I am looking for information about the sport for someone who knows essentially nothing, wasn't brought up in a horse following family, has no friends or relatives interested in horses and only has a couple of work colleagues who are (and they are obviously net losers), has only soberly been to a race course once, and was amazed at how tiny the horses were. And it should be written from a gambler's perspective, not the perspective of someone who knows about horses, and will point out all the little and big things I am looking for.

Anyone got any suggestions?

Bonus recommendation: I have nothing much to do tomorrow. Are there any races I should go to, nearish (say 2 hours by any sensible method) to London?

[F458]

The racing tomorrow within your distance is Goodwood really and thats a bit of a way.

Are you interested in flat or national hunt racing. national hunt is on a bit of a break for 10 days now.

Other books are: Giving A Little Back by Barney Curley - Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch - google high stakes book shop - i use them. Get yourself familiar with Betfair, play around with minimum stakes on it.

[Somewhatfoolish]

F458 said:

The racing tomorrow within your distance is Goodwood really and thats a bit of a way.

Are you interested in flat or national hunt racing. national hunt is on a bit of a break for 10 days now.

Other books are: Giving A Little Back by Barney Curley - Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch - google high stakes book shop - i use them. Get yourself familiar with Betfair, play around with minimum stakes on it.

Enemy Number One was book #2 I was thinking of.

Familiar with betfair, although I specifically don't want to trade horses.

What should I be looking at re flat V national hunt? ATM I have no preference at all.

Thanks for High Stakes, will take a look.

[F458]

Well today is traditionally seen as the end of the flat 'season' - it was the last classic of the year today, the st ledger @ doncaster - however there is flat racing throughout the year at tracks like Wolverhampton/Southwell/Kempton/Lingfield - these are all weather (sand) tracks. Obviously the flat races from now on are usually low quality/low prize money/low grade horses so not usually the best betting opportunities. The NH season officially kicks off with the Charlie Hall chase @ Weatherby - there are NH races before that but that is the 1st big one as it were and it culminates in the Cheltenham Festival in march and the Aintree Festival in April - both of which are great Festivals and I throughly recommend going to. NH racing goes throughout the year (apart from these few days now) although like the flat season in the winter the NH races in the summer are usually low grade affairs so each type of racing has their seasons as it were but they are not clear cut. Personally I prefer NH racing as the horses tend to stay in training and on the race track for longer. Decent flat horses can be retired to stud after 1 season and never seen again, however NH horses like Spot The Difference/Istabraq/Baracouda/Best Mate/Kauto Star/Inglis Drever turn out to be true ledgends of the turf over time and the atmosphere at big festivals when the likes of these horses were running was electric.

So far as betting goes you obviously need some kind of 'edge' over someone else or the bookmaker. This can be anything or a combination of Breeding Stats/Draws/Form/Sectional Timing/Betting Activity/Jockey/Course/Distance/Race Reading (in running betting) etc etc the list is endless.....

As you use Betfair already don't be afraid to ask questions on their forum, there are some tw@s on there but on the whole people are helpful and will answer your questions - the same goes for visiting race courses to get a feel of things. However all the racecourse bookmakers follow Betfair prices these days, Betfair is the true free market for betting. I would not recommend betting with on course bookies unless in certain each way circumstances as usually they will be a worse price than Betfair. But visitng the course and looking at the horses beforehand as you suggest is definately worth while as the racing channels on sky never spend enough time showing the horses pre race. But bet on Betfair using tele betting or betfair mobile rather than using the bookies unless its worth while. Arbing on course is virtually impossible long term and the bookies will not take your bets. Arbing off course will end up with you getting your accounts restricted and closed. It is a really really tough game to make it pay however don't let anyone tell you it can't be done because it can but if you don't have discipline and patience then dont even try to start betting for a living. The difference between betting for a living and betting for fun is that when you are betting for a living its not winning thats the problem its NOT giving the winnings back which is the key. If you go on course and bet for fun then you probably limit yourself to £50 and it doesn't really matter if you win/lose/come out even.

Dip your toe in the water and see how it goes - the racing industry needs more people to go racing however they never seem to be successful in attracting new 'fans' as it were.

[Somewhatfoolish]

Yup I'm certainly not intending to bet for a living, just to bet profitably (well actually I do already bet for a linving, in a sense) - actually I see this as a major advantage... because I don't need to bet on horses for a living I can spend ages looking for a decently +EV bet, and don't have to worry about putting food on the table...

There's a lot more to look at in your post, thanks muchly - I'll be doing some research tonight

Edit: In terms of the bookie's edge: I should have thought that a bookie is more interested in running a balanced book than in setting the odds correctly, and thus (disregarding overround) I need to beat the market more than I need to beat the bookie. Is that incorrect?

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Saturday 11th September 22:09

[F458]

The bookie will take a calculated risk but yes really they want a nice balanced book, however the way they do this is by evaluating the chances of a particular selection and assiging a price to it, for example they may think that a horse is a 2/1 chance but they will only put 6/4 up on the board, so if people bet @ 6/4 then they are betting below the bookmakers perceived chance of that selection - the trick is to bet horses @ 2/1 that should really be 6/4 shots then you have an 'edge' - no one 100% knows what the true price of a horse should be, its all about opinion and thats the beauty of horse racing!! Remember the bookie will build in a 8-25% overround in to his board prices depending on the type of race etc etc. So if a race is priced up to 110% then if you bet every selection in proportion to its price then you would lose 10% of what you have bet with them - bet £100 in total and you would walk away with £90 whatever the result. The prices are usually bigger on Betfair as they have virtually 100% books and make their money on charging commission on winning bets. Hence you can see why betting on Betfair is in theory "easier" as if you have a 6% 'edge' then you can win on betfair because the books are 100% as with a bookmaker even with a 6% edge you would still be losing 4% if their books were priced up to 110%. Please don't forget commission on betfair which starts at 5% and reduces depending on turnover and don't forget to look at their Premium Charge also which really effects long term winners. Depending on what level of £ you will be playing at it is definately worth considering Betdaq rather than Befair as Betdaq do not have a premium charge yet!!! Betdaq is the same as Betfair but is less popular and has less liquidity but does the same thing.

Its good that you are under no pressure to 'perform' and it will be more of a hobby than anything else. I know guys that make it pay however they are some of the hardest working people I know - people think professional gambler and think of big cigars/champagne/fast cars/posh hotels/beautiful girls - the reality is very very different!!!!

[Somewhatfoolish]

Right just persuaded a mate of mine to go tomorrow, he happens to be muslim amusingly...

Here's my strategy:

11:00-11:30am: Take a look at free timeform things on betfair
11:30am-12:00pm: Reserarch, as best as possible, everything about said timeform things I don't understand
12:00pm-13:30pm: Drive at ludicrous speeds to goodwood
13:30pm-whenever: Back horses think are too long; possibly lay some stuff with mobile if the horses look st in the paddock...

...which makes me ask: What to look for in paddock if a horse idiot?

Edit: P.S. The goodwood website implies I can go there in shorts and sandals, so long as I'm covering up my torso... is that right?

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Saturday 11th September 22:53

[Somewhatfoolish]

I now have organised a reasonable day out, about 10 coming, although no one I spoken to sober so maybe about 4 actually coming, anyone ehre interested? If so post before 11am pls and I'll email yer with my number

Edit: Don't email me by profile though, that's my work email whcih is purely to confirm I'm not an imposter... I never, ever, ever check it.

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Saturday 11th September 23:36

[F458]

Sorry only just logged on again - let me know how you got on!!

[Somewhatfoolish]

Proftiably

Unfortunately missed first race due to a foolish route, which is a shame as I'd chosen Powerful Melody, the eventual winner, in my pre heading off analysis. Although I may well have changed it when I came to see it so maybe that good luck. No idea.

Winning bets were on Mujood E/W at 15:10 (I got 18/1 iirc), based on appearance in paddock (rather than Call to Reason which I'd chosen pre race), which was nice start... then a dry spell until 17:30 where I backed Space Station, who I'd chosen pre race and looked fine in the paddock. I also laid Cape Rock (only horse I laid) at average price of 4.7ish on betfair using mobile; it seemed to my untrained eye that he was practically trying to attack the poor girl leading him around... I was pracitcally expecting him to race backwards.

Had about 8 losing bets, but made a net profit. Probably stupidest of these was backing a 40/1 shot (and then deciding to stick a bit on him to place as well just before the off, as I figured he was probably that long for a reason). That was based purely on his appearance in the ring (Crossbow Creek, 16:55). Which a good demonstration that I'm still unconciously incompetent, as I don't even have the knoweldge yet to evaluate what I did so wrong

Am still mostly trying to look for winners and laying obvious losers; not sure at all what is a good value bet but am loooking for decently long odds for the former and decently short odds for the latter before trying them out...

Anyway was great fun and will aim to head to another soon

Edit: Oh yeah, only two otehr people turned up

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Monday 13th September 08:56

[DonkeyApple]

Just bribe the jockey like all the other people who make money betting on horses. Everyone else is a loser.

[Somewhatfoolish]

Why would that be teh case?

[DonkeyApple]

Somewhatfoolish said:

Why would that be teh case?

I've absolutely no idea other than things like Ladbrokes having a market cap of £1.3bn

If you want to make money gambling then either bend the market in your favour or sell a book to saps who haven't yet worked it out

[Somewhatfoolish]

I won't accept it's impossible to make money doing this. For that to be so, then the market would have to be ridiculously efficient, whereas there's all sorts of reasons that it shouldn't even be weakly efficient.

On the other hand, it may be impossible for me to make money doing this. But then I don't see any obvious reason why that should be the case either, at least in principle (after educating myself enough).

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Monday 13th September 17:32

[honest_delboy]

Sorry for stating the obvious but have you looked at the flatstats site? Most of it is free and even has some systems to either follow os use as filters. They have a decent forum too as opposed to some of the children you get on BF.

Over the past 10 years i've kept a pretty good running total of wins/losses and shock horror i'm down, but not by that much. I tend to just stick to larger meetings now, both NH and flat. Tended to do better laying than backing but its not quite as exciting is it?

Horse racing seems to have such a bad image at the moment hence why racecourses are putting on concerts in a bid to pull in more younger race goers. I hope it works as i really do enjoy it and would like a sturdy future for the sport.

[DonkeyApple]

Somewhatfoolish said:

I won't accept it's impossible to make money doing this. For that to be so, then the market would have to be ridiculously efficient, whereas there's all sorts of reasons that it shouldn't even be weakly efficient.

On the other hand, it may be impossible for me to make money doing this. But then I don't see any obvious reason why that should be the case either, at least in principle (after educating myself enough).

Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Monday 13th September 17:32

It is very easy to make money, just look at the bookies profits.

You just need to take the other side of the bet at odds stacked in your favour. Gambling is a market where you have to be the seller and not the buyer.

It's also full of liars, scammers, thieves and crooks because it is unregulated. Google alone will throw up a million get rich quick systems where strangely you just pay some scrote for his tips or he recieves a % of your betting revenue.

The old school system was to divide your clients into 2 books and allways give them the oposing bets, that way half your clients were always right.

I should get round to writing a book on these people some time.

Then the racing itself is bent. So many ways to steer the results that data analysis is pretty pointless.

I would have thought that they only clever way to give it a go is to take the other side of mug bets via Betfair, but even that has far more shrewed pro bookies soaking up that liquidity.

Have fun but please don't think you can make a living without becoming one of the myriad crooks out there.

[oOTomOo]

It is not 'impossible' to make money on horses.

I used to work for a large bookmaker and we had a list of clients that were overall winners on sports betting (less than 0.01% of our client base if I remember).

So you can do it.

The way to do it without really knowing your beans or being bent is on Betfred or similar. Read up about offsetting bets.

Or if you really want to make money gambling, throw away your horsey books and buy some on poker.

[Somewhatfoolish]

Well, next horse racing experiment is Ascot tomorrow. Anyone around? Will be me, someone who was with me last time, and my brother who makes a pretty substantial income for a student on football bets...

I got rather raped on the labour leadership today (after, ironically, laying Dave pretty much all the way through the contest - until reversing at about the worst time) so fancy a cash injection to my betting accounts...

[dunning]

Have a look on the online-betting-guide.co.uk forums, the horse racing section has a lot of very in the know people who are always happy to help, I've had some nice winners on there just reading the daily selection threads

Good luck with it anyway, just remember If you do have a few losers don't just be backing anything to try and get your money back chasing your losses, just take it easy and think about every bet before you place it

[Somewhatfoolish]

Ta I'll have a wee look.

I lost every.single.bet. on Sunday incidentally... even when I layed a horse