Was HIPS the straw that broke the house market's back?
Discussion
But I think those that put there houses on the market for a speculative sell doesn't help either.
My analogy would be that it's a bit like putting your car on Autotrader with a price at or above the market average with only an intent to sell if you are offered that price. Over supplies the market with a slightly artificial set of price information as you have no incentive to have price flexibility (only an upward or static movement against asking).
Just my theory....
My analogy would be that it's a bit like putting your car on Autotrader with a price at or above the market average with only an intent to sell if you are offered that price. Over supplies the market with a slightly artificial set of price information as you have no incentive to have price flexibility (only an upward or static movement against asking).
Just my theory....
plg101 said:
But I think those that put there houses on the market for a speculative sell doesn't help either.
My analogy would be that it's a bit like putting your car on Autotrader with a price at or above the market average with only an intent to sell if you are offered that price. Over supplies the market with a slightly artificial set of price information as you have no incentive to have price flexibility (only an upward or static movement against asking).
Just my theory....
I would agree with that, local to me selling prices are falling and sales are low, asking prices are rising or staying stagnant. Some of this is down to agents, my parents curreently are dealing with the sale of a deceased aunts house, if the place was immaculate at the peak of prices it would have been worth a maximum of 100k, the agents reccomended it went up at 69950 despite the current poor market and the fact the place needs someone with deep pockets or a building firm to make it habitable or even sellable on the open market. My analogy would be that it's a bit like putting your car on Autotrader with a price at or above the market average with only an intent to sell if you are offered that price. Over supplies the market with a slightly artificial set of price information as you have no incentive to have price flexibility (only an upward or static movement against asking).
Just my theory....
911motorsport said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I wish i hadn't asked 
... meanwhile some of us who continued to build and sell houses throughout the downturn are now a lot more positive about the future; indeed I've spent this weekend working on the jobs specs. and structure for enlarging my department to enable me to cope with the work we've got coming through this year...
But to answer your original question, whilst I do agree with Tonker that HIP's are just a bureacratic licence for the Government to rake in more money, I'm not sure that doing away with them (or suspending them) would help. The major limitation is still mortgage availability and market confidence amongst buyers, so encouraging lots of toe-in-the-water, speculative sellers to flood the market with houses that will then sit there unsold isn't going to acheive anything.
I hate HIPs with a passion, but if they help moderate the speculative bubbles that have historically driven the boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market and leave it to the serious sellers and buyers, they'd at least be doing some good.
Edited by Sam_68 on Sunday 21st February 16:52
Sam_68 said:
911motorsport said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I wish i hadn't asked ... meanwhile some of us who continued to build and sell houses throughout the downturn are now a lot more positive about the future; indeed I've spent this weekend working on the jobs specs. and structure for enlarging my department to enable me to cope with the work we've got coming through this year...
But to answer your original question, whilst I do agree with Tonker that HIP's are just a bureacratic licence for the Government to rake in more money, I'm not sure that doing away with them (or suspending them) would help. The major limitation is still mortgage availability and market confidence amongst buyers, so encouraging lots of toe-in-the-water, speculative sellers to flood the market with houses that will then sit there unsold isn't going to acheive anything.
I hate HIPs with a passion, but if they help moderate the speculative bubbles that have historically driven the boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market and leave it to the serious sellers and buyers, they'd at least be doing some good.
Yep, it definitely deters people from putting their toe into the market - more available properties for viewing helps price discovery and ultimately this ensure liquidity in the market. Fortunately, my last sale was through a website on which my home was continuously marketed from the date that HIPs were enforced .. saved me alot of hassle.
This should be an easy fix for the next government - and i shan't cry for those people who have signed up for HIPs training - they can do something useful instead!
The market is fu8d anyway due to economic fundamentals, but ensuring that people can sell their houses as efficiently as possible would be a good thing IMO.
This should be an easy fix for the next government - and i shan't cry for those people who have signed up for HIPs training - they can do something useful instead!
The market is fu8d anyway due to economic fundamentals, but ensuring that people can sell their houses as efficiently as possible would be a good thing IMO.
Edited by fido on Sunday 21st February 14:08
catso said:
Hips is a pointless waste of time & money but Stamp Duty is the real steal...
It's certainly preventing us moving.Our house is valued at £270k, and we need that much in order to upsize. We'll not get a penny more than £250k though.
Of course, when we find a house for, say, £350k, we have to pay £10,500 for the privilege of moving house (plus estate agent fees, plus moving costs and a few other bits and pieces).
Until stamp duty is dropped on affordable small family homes, we'll not see much change in the market down here in the SE.
Sam_68 said:
911motorsport said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I wish i hadn't asked ... meanwhile some of us who continued to build and sell houses throughout the downturn are now a lot more positive about the future; indeed I've spent this weekend working on the jobs specs. and structure for enlarging my department to enable me to cope with the work we've got coming through this year...
But to answer your original question, whilst I do agree with Tonker that HIP's are just a bureacratic licence for the Government to rake in more money, I'm not sure that doing away with them (or suspending them) would help. The major limitation is still mortgage availability and market confidence amongst buyers, so encouraging lots of toe-in-the-water, speculative sellers to flood the market with houses that will then sit there unsold isn't going to acheive anything.
I hate HIPs with a passion, but if they help moderate the speculative bubbles that have historically driven the boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market and leave it to the serious sellers and buyers, they'd at least be doing some good.
Tonker are you a politician?
I will say what I habve said on countless other threads;
The banks are having it off at the moment.
As far as far as interest rates go they are not that much different than before the crash in that to borrow is still around 5 -6% ish as it was before the credit crunch hit, Despite the boebr being 0.5%.
Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Sam_68 said:
... meanwhile some of us who continued to build and sell houses throughout the downturn are now a lot more positive about the future; indeed I've spent this weekend working on the jobs specs. and structure for enlarging my department to enable me to cope with the work we've got coming through this year...
0.5% base rate? £200bn of quantitative easing? We've had the Brownturn not the Downturn just yet .. just don't count your chicken/rabbit hutches yet.MonkeyMatt said:
Sam, you seem to have had a fair bit of exposure to HIPs! Im doing a dissertation on the whole subject of HIPs! would you mind if I contacted you at some point regarding the topic? Cheers.
By all means, though my exposure to it is limited to new-build housing and only goes as far as generating the PEA's/EPC's and filling in one or two of the countless tick-box forms that our solicitors need to compile the full HIPs pack. It's the Sales team and the solicitors that do the donkey work.I merely have an awareness of some of the technical flaws that make it worthless. For example, the energy calculations on a new house (which are far more certain than those on an existing property, 'cos we know the exact detail of the specifcation) have been proven to be anything up to 40% out from actual performance. They juat aren't worth the paper they're written on...
fido said:
We've had the Brownturn not the Downturn just yet .. just don't count your chicken/rabbit hutches yet.
Yes, sorry, I forgot. The End of the World is Nigh. We're Doomed, DOOMED, I tell you!! We'll all be eating gravel and living in cardboard boxes by Christmas, etc., etc. 
Does that make you happier?
We've not only counted our rabbit hutches, we've sold most of 'em. Last year was the best year we've ever had in terms of numbers in my Region. But let's keep the market stuff on the 'How Far will House Prices Fall' thread, shall we... unless you want to start a new 'How much longer will the last 12 month's house sales recovery continue' thread?
Turbo cab said:
As far as far as interest rates go they are not that much different than before the crash in that to borrow is still around 5 -6% ish as it was before the credit crunch hit, Despite the boebr being 0.5%.
Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Trackers are 5-6%? Which lender are you with?Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
NoelWatson said:
Turbo cab said:
As far as far as interest rates go they are not that much different than before the crash in that to borrow is still around 5 -6% ish as it was before the credit crunch hit, Despite the boebr being 0.5%.
Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Trackers are 5-6%? Which lender are you with?Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Turbo cab said:
NoelWatson said:
Turbo cab said:
As far as far as interest rates go they are not that much different than before the crash in that to borrow is still around 5 -6% ish as it was before the credit crunch hit, Despite the boebr being 0.5%.
Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Trackers are 5-6%? Which lender are you with?Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
NoelWatson said:
Turbo cab said:
NoelWatson said:
Turbo cab said:
As far as far as interest rates go they are not that much different than before the crash in that to borrow is still around 5 -6% ish as it was before the credit crunch hit, Despite the boebr being 0.5%.
Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Trackers are 5-6%? Which lender are you with?Tha banks are making massive proffits at the moment, wheather its to claw back what they have lost who knows.
But when rates do inevitably rise the banks will be forced to cut there profit threshold - simples
Now the base rate is 0.5% do you see any deals out there that are 05% or 1%? No.
Thats the point, Most deals are around 5% so no different to pre credit crunch.
As for swap rates I can see what your getting at as ultimatley this is where most of the money comes from to fund mortgages but I cant seem to find any historical evedence to analise for say the past three years.
But if its information you have please do tell as im imagining it will have dropped since all the treasuries reduced there rates but will only back up what I said above.
Turbo cab said:
Now the base rate is 0.5% do you see any deals out there that are 05% or 1%? No.
Thats the point, Most deals are around 5% so no different to pre credit crunch.
It's a big myth that the newspapers or at least the populist ones seem to enjoy espousing - that banks can borrow at base rate and lend it out at a huge profit for mortgages (see how little Barclays made in their retail arm) - and sure it plays well with the populace and diverts their anger away from the politico.Thats the point, Most deals are around 5% so no different to pre credit crunch.
I haven't got a Bloomberg terminal anymore as i've been long banished from the Front Office environment but lenders don't borrow at base rate, most of them can't even borrow at LIBOR and have to pay a significant margin (e.g. 2% above this rate) at which they can issue new FRNs (floating-rate notes) i.e. just under 4%.
Or to put it another way, i've been hunting around for a 50% mortgage and the cheapest offset i can find is just under 4%. One assumes this LTV is pretty much risk-free - even if property prices halved (and this is a dire scenario) they would be repaid - market forces would dictate that if someone could lend below this level e.g. 2% then it would be wise for them to do it, for what risk would there be in doing so?
Edited by fido on Sunday 21st February 22:35
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