UK running out of power
Discussion
3 years ago we were warned that the UK is running out of power and by winter of 2015 we could be reaching our reserve limits.
Without wishing to go all 'tin foil hat' it does seem like that is coming true now. I had heard a few people in the energy supply trade saying this winter could see more power cuts as a 'brown outs' are more frequent. There appears to have been several small power outages around here recently (cue several East Anglia remarks) which could well be the start of it as more and more energy is being used now we are nearing winter.
Are we truly f
ked without nuclear?
Do we need to invest more in green (even though we have overspent)?
Or, is it bks and it's the same old st that gets spouted each year?
What do we think?
Without wishing to go all 'tin foil hat' it does seem like that is coming true now. I had heard a few people in the energy supply trade saying this winter could see more power cuts as a 'brown outs' are more frequent. There appears to have been several small power outages around here recently (cue several East Anglia remarks) which could well be the start of it as more and more energy is being used now we are nearing winter.
Are we truly f
ked without nuclear?Do we need to invest more in green (even though we have overspent)?
Or, is it b
ks and it's the same old st that gets spouted each year?What do we think?
Impasse said:
Impossible. Every single proponent of electric cars tells us that having 30 million cars recharging all at once will be no problem for the UK's energy suppliers.
The issue is peak demand, not using power pumped into the the grid at 2am to charge cars rather than wasting is as heat. You can see grid demand in realtime here:
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
As well as the load, look at the frequency - less than 50hz means demand is high. (like a car engine being loaded going up a hill)
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
As well as the load, look at the frequency - less than 50hz means demand is high. (like a car engine being loaded going up a hill)
eliot said:
You can see grid demand in realtime here:
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
As well as the load, look at the frequency - less than 50hz means demand is high. (like a car engine being loaded going up a hill)
Fascinating, especially the Euro/France link bit. Essentially if the French drink too much of the red stuff or get invaded & they put their hands up we are all foooked http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
As well as the load, look at the frequency - less than 50hz means demand is high. (like a car engine being loaded going up a hill)
I think it'll depend on temperatures. Using electricity for heating may be relatively unusual in the UK but it's probably the single biggest unpredictable factor. Also temperatures well below freezing can significantly hamper Scotland's hydroelectric generation.
IIRC peak capacity including imports is about 75MW (more like 65-70 without) and from that website above the highest demand we've seen so far this year is about 55MW with the average draw being about 40MW so we've plenty of reserve for the moment unless something goes wrong and requires an unplanned shutdown in the late afternoon.
Looking at the numbers I think it's unlikely we'll see brown-outs unless something goes wrong. Which, of course, it might. If we do, it'll be a brief blip at about 5-7pm when people are all trying to cook their dinners.
IIRC peak capacity including imports is about 75MW (more like 65-70 without) and from that website above the highest demand we've seen so far this year is about 55MW with the average draw being about 40MW so we've plenty of reserve for the moment unless something goes wrong and requires an unplanned shutdown in the late afternoon.
Looking at the numbers I think it's unlikely we'll see brown-outs unless something goes wrong. Which, of course, it might. If we do, it'll be a brief blip at about 5-7pm when people are all trying to cook their dinners.
Edited by kambites on Tuesday 27th October 07:56
kambites said:
I think it'll depend on temperatures. Using electricity for heating may be relatively unusual in the UK but it's probably the single biggest unpredictable factor. Also temperatures well below freezing can significantly hamper Scotland's hydroelectric generation.
IIRC peak capacity (including imports) is about 80MW and from that website above the highest demand we've seen so far this year is about 55MW with the average draw being about 40MW so we've plenty of reserve for the moment unless something goes wrong and requires an unplanned shutdown in the late afternoon.
don't you mean GW?IIRC peak capacity (including imports) is about 80MW and from that website above the highest demand we've seen so far this year is about 55MW with the average draw being about 40MW so we've plenty of reserve for the moment unless something goes wrong and requires an unplanned shutdown in the late afternoon.
Edited by kambites on Tuesday 27th October 07:53
eliot said:
They have demand mitigation schemes.
For example if you happen to have a high load and standby diesel generators (such as a large building or datacentre) you can join a scheme where the grid will fire up your generators to remove your load from the grid.
I wonder what the combined capacity of all the stand-by generators in the UK is? For example if you happen to have a high load and standby diesel generators (such as a large building or datacentre) you can join a scheme where the grid will fire up your generators to remove your load from the grid.
eliot said:
They have demand mitigation schemes.
For example if you happen to have a high load and standby diesel generators (such as a large building or datacentre)you can join a scheme where the grid will fire up your generators to remove your load from the grid. a desperate government will pay you to cover up for decades of incompetent and idiotic energy supply management.
EFA.For example if you happen to have a high load and standby diesel generators (such as a large building or datacentre)
Britain should never, ever have found itself in this ridiculous situation. Failure to invest in nuclear power, MMGW fantasies and downright reluctance to make the hard decisions that governments are elected to take over a period of decades, have resulted in the situation that we are in today.
Part of me hopes that we do suffer widespread brown and black outs this winter. With all the attendant suffering that such things will bring. If only to convince parliament that while it is a wonderful thing to 'save' the planet for future generations, it is actually their job to make life better for those of us around now, in the early twenty first century. Rather than take us back to the nineteenth.
Utter nincompoops, the lot of them.
Impasse said:
Impossible. Every single proponent of electric cars tells us that having 30 million cars recharging all at once will be no problem for the UK's energy suppliers.
You're confusing peak POWER consumption with ENERGY. Its like confusing the size of your petrol tank with your fuel consumption under acceleration.We have an issue with peak power and that its getting close to the maximum we can deliver at a point in time. That will mean power cuts. We have plenty of spare capacity at night, when the majority of cars will be charging, but people are using very little.
It highly likely that if EV's become mainstream then their batteries will be used to smooth peak power.
To put it simply peak power does not affect the ability to charge cars, only the rate or time they should be charged. Energy dictates if are able to charge them all.
gr1340 said:
<snip>Do we need to invest more in green (even though we have overspent)?
The opposite. It's the green fraud (and resultant trougher's feeding frenzy) that has landed us in this mess - closing of cost effective and reliable base generation by coal. Extreme reluctance to invest in replacement (or any!) practical generation while the industry is distorted by government intervention. EFA
kambites said:
Blib said:
Part of me hopes that we do suffer widespread brown and black outs this winter.
I don't think we'll get brown-outs. If it gets close to the limit they'll just switch off Jet
*Not sure about the compo bit.
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