Lets dicuss life and jobs in 30-40 years time.
Discussion
I dont think ive ever had a proper conversation with people about the way technology will shape life in the not too distant future.
Why doesnt it get discussed?
With the rise of robotics, life will surely be massively different in 30 years time. My mum has a robotic vacuum cleaner that does a far better job of remembering where its been than i possible could, and i only imagine robotic mowers are just as good.
Mobile control of heating and other household appliances is now common place.
How hard can it be for a large tech company to invent one robot with the computing power to do all the domestic chores that a human does? Give a robot arms and redesign appliances to be robot friendly and jobs like loading the dishwasher, washing machine cleaning the shower can quite easily be done by a robot with low processing power. If it could be built for the price of a large family car, people would be queueing out the door for one.
This is not to mention the shake up that will no doubt happen in the jobs market.
Surely we arent far technologically from the next industrial revolution?
Will there not be massive unrest as million of train drivers, machinists, cleaners, shelf stackers, pilots, till operators and hundreds of other jobs disapear pretty much over night.
Whats your view?
Why doesnt it get discussed?
With the rise of robotics, life will surely be massively different in 30 years time. My mum has a robotic vacuum cleaner that does a far better job of remembering where its been than i possible could, and i only imagine robotic mowers are just as good.
Mobile control of heating and other household appliances is now common place.
How hard can it be for a large tech company to invent one robot with the computing power to do all the domestic chores that a human does? Give a robot arms and redesign appliances to be robot friendly and jobs like loading the dishwasher, washing machine cleaning the shower can quite easily be done by a robot with low processing power. If it could be built for the price of a large family car, people would be queueing out the door for one.
This is not to mention the shake up that will no doubt happen in the jobs market.
Surely we arent far technologically from the next industrial revolution?
Will there not be massive unrest as million of train drivers, machinists, cleaners, shelf stackers, pilots, till operators and hundreds of other jobs disapear pretty much over night.
Whats your view?
I'm sure that things will change, but the robot vision you are talking about is a long long long way off. Vacuum cleaners and mowers are very dumb.
The complexity involved in doing something relatively menial like loading the dishwasher is immense. Unless you were to line the plates up exactly where they need to be and it becomes a pure pick up / slot in. The math and logic otherwise of being able to coordinate to lets say a table, identify dishes, pick them up, check if too dirty and if so rinse is just beyond anything in the next couple of decades.
I think that cars will become smarter with collision avoidance and limited self-driving, a slightly more complicated cruise control. Technology like phones and computers become like a contact lens that allow you to view everything and read your brain waves instead of any other interaction.
The complexity involved in doing something relatively menial like loading the dishwasher is immense. Unless you were to line the plates up exactly where they need to be and it becomes a pure pick up / slot in. The math and logic otherwise of being able to coordinate to lets say a table, identify dishes, pick them up, check if too dirty and if so rinse is just beyond anything in the next couple of decades.
I think that cars will become smarter with collision avoidance and limited self-driving, a slightly more complicated cruise control. Technology like phones and computers become like a contact lens that allow you to view everything and read your brain waves instead of any other interaction.
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PositronicRay said:
Since the 70s we were told, computers and robots would take our jobs.
The big social problem, in future times was using all the leisure time created.
Hasn't happened/
And the promise of working less, if anything it has lead to people working longer hours as they now work on the train, at home, access their emails 24hrs a day on smart phones etc etc The big social problem, in future times was using all the leisure time created.
Hasn't happened/
It would be interesting to know whether, at any point in the past, people have even remotely accurately predicted what the future would look like 30 years into the future.
Back in 1911, Edison reckoned that within a few years, alchemists would've cracked it, rendering gold essentially worthless. He also claimed in 1899 that nobody would ever use AC current.
We've been predicting permanent human habitation on the moon since the 1600s. Still haven't got it!
Arthur C. Clarke thought, back in 1966, that by now our houses wouldn't need to be connected to any permanent utilities, so we'd all be able to migrate South in the winter!
Remember the 1800s, when rail travel was impossible, because passengers would asphyxiate at any speed over about 8mph?
Darryl Zanuck, the founder of Fox studios reckoned in 1946 that TV wouldn't survive 6 months before people got bored of staring at it!
The founder of 3Com predicted that the Internet would collapse catastrophically in 1996.
Steve Ballmer of Microsoft said as recently as 2007 that the iPhone would never capture any significant market share.
Back in 1911, Edison reckoned that within a few years, alchemists would've cracked it, rendering gold essentially worthless. He also claimed in 1899 that nobody would ever use AC current.
We've been predicting permanent human habitation on the moon since the 1600s. Still haven't got it!
Arthur C. Clarke thought, back in 1966, that by now our houses wouldn't need to be connected to any permanent utilities, so we'd all be able to migrate South in the winter!
Remember the 1800s, when rail travel was impossible, because passengers would asphyxiate at any speed over about 8mph?
Darryl Zanuck, the founder of Fox studios reckoned in 1946 that TV wouldn't survive 6 months before people got bored of staring at it!
The founder of 3Com predicted that the Internet would collapse catastrophically in 1996.
Steve Ballmer of Microsoft said as recently as 2007 that the iPhone would never capture any significant market share.
PositronicRay said:
Since the 70s we were told, computers and robots would take our jobs.
The big social problem, in future times was using all the leisure time created.
Hasn't happened/
Plenty of manufacturing jobs have been lost to technology. In other areas the number of people required to do a job have reduced due to technology.The big social problem, in future times was using all the leisure time created.
Hasn't happened/
I work in/with robotics.
It's caused reduction in certain types of workers. Before robots there were 14 skilled manual welders, now we have 5, but we are producing more stuff.
Skilled welders are still required to do repairs and one off jobs that aren't worth preparation of a new program. Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
It's caused reduction in certain types of workers. Before robots there were 14 skilled manual welders, now we have 5, but we are producing more stuff.
Skilled welders are still required to do repairs and one off jobs that aren't worth preparation of a new program. Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
What about train drivers? I cant see that lasting more than 10 years, if cars can drive themselves, the only thing stopping trains from doing the same is that you need someone to blame when things go wrong.
redddraggon said:
Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
I guess the question is, when will that be?Sheets Tabuer said:
Are you Sarah Connor?
No im Benjamin Bayliss.Robots will be the means of production
We will own the means of production
But as robots have no need for money, we don't have to pay the means of production
Hence, we will simply scoop up the resulting capital, and live the life of lazy millionaires
It's either that, or the destruction of the entire human race. One of the two.
We will own the means of production
But as robots have no need for money, we don't have to pay the means of production
Hence, we will simply scoop up the resulting capital, and live the life of lazy millionaires
It's either that, or the destruction of the entire human race. One of the two.
redddraggon said:
I work in/with robotics.
It's caused reduction in certain types of workers. Before robots there were 14 skilled manual welders, now we have 5, but we are producing more stuff.
Skilled welders are still required to do repairs and one off jobs that aren't worth preparation of a new program. Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
Yes.It's caused reduction in certain types of workers. Before robots there were 14 skilled manual welders, now we have 5, but we are producing more stuff.
Skilled welders are still required to do repairs and one off jobs that aren't worth preparation of a new program. Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
In the 1980s I was told that if you were not computer literate by the year 2000 you would be in the same position as someone who couldnt read when the printing press had started. My office didnt give this idea much credibility at the time and kept to old ways but it was exactly right.
Personally I cannot imagine work and life in 2050, I was talking to a surgeon and he was convinced that within 20 years his job wouldnt be there, patients would be operated on by a machine, his job would not exist.
Personally I cannot imagine work and life in 2050, I was talking to a surgeon and he was convinced that within 20 years his job wouldnt be there, patients would be operated on by a machine, his job would not exist.
Benbay001 said:
What about train drivers? I cant see that lasting more than 10 years, if cars can drive themselves, the only thing stopping trains from doing the same is that you need someone to blame when things go wrong.
Rail: It will be a long time before you travel on a mainline driverless train because it's not getting the train to stop or go that is the problem as it is no more complex than an airplane, boat, car, helicopter, spaceship or whatever else you can automate. It's because the current signalling system is not compatible with any mode of automatic train operation. The U.K. Is currently testing and implementing ERTMS which is in cab signalling, this will render lineside signals obsolete except for certain locations. The transition to ERTMS is not due to be completed until 2044 which the project is already behind schedule, so expect that to be in the 2050s at the earliest. redddraggon said:
Until AI is at such level, we will never see jobs being replaced by robotics that require more than a bit of thought.
I guess the question is, when will that be?Sheets Tabuer said:
Are you Sarah Connor?
No im Benjamin Bayliss.ERTMS is an European signalling system that is standard across the whole of Europe so we can't deviate from it and the whole of Europe is doing the same. If any new lines are built they must be ERTMS. Then to have the a driverless system the whole line has to comply with a whole list of safety requirements such as: double fenced, covered by CCTV, emergency walk ways etc etc, the list is very long, it basically has to be a totally secure sterile system that can not be affected by adverse weather {flooding etc} trees falling down, animals being hit, trespassers etc.. Then all the hundreds of miles of equipment needs to be inspected, maintained and repaired It's why the underground won't be driverless for a long time yet either and it's easier to achieve that on the underground. certain the lines on the underground will be able to be driverless first but the whole underground will not be for a long time to come yet either.
Another issue is if a train develops a fault, needs something isolated due to air leak or damage, someone is required to fix the doors, isolate the air leak etc and if that Train is in a rural location you might wait an hour for someone to turn up and fix the train and if that's in the summer with 800 people all crammed in the train they will most likely force the doors open and get off themselves causing more problems...then that train causes huge delays all over the network...so it's cheaper to automate the train like autopilot and keep the driver onboard.
The head of HS2 said a computer is not perfect and neither is a human, but combine the two and you have the best of both. HS2 has not even started construction and they are not planning on it driverless.
Apologies for long text and any mistakes, I'm on my phone
Edited by TLandCruiser on Thursday 14th April 20:16
Kermit power said:
Steve Ballmer of Microsoft said as recently as 2007 that the iPhone would never capture any significant market share.
The first iPhone was launched half way through 2007 so that was much in line with what a lot of people thought - you say it as if the iPhone was already in its stride!Gassing Station | The Lounge | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff