Why are weather forecasters so incompetent?
Discussion
Yet again, I took a coat and umbrella into the office today, because weather.co.uk and the BBC weather app were both telling me it would be hammering it down from about 3pm onwards.
Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
Kermit power said:
So maybe the better question is "why do we bother trying"?
I always see our forecasts as "general guidance". Like mountain weather, it can change quickly, just go prepared.If you want to live somewhere with predictable climate, move to the inland of a large continental mass.
They're not incompetent. At least most aren't.
The weather is a ridiculously complicated set of interdependent physical processes. One tiny change (maybe half a degree in temperature, a few millibars of pressure) and it changes what happens. Any forecast is at best a very educated guess. The fact that they can get it right some of the time is pretty amazing.
So if they've forecasted the passage of a frontal system (Which is bringing the rain forecast) and the pressure ahead of it is slightly higher than expected, for example, that frontal system may break up, stall, just move slower than expected........the possibilities are literally endless.
The weather is a ridiculously complicated set of interdependent physical processes. One tiny change (maybe half a degree in temperature, a few millibars of pressure) and it changes what happens. Any forecast is at best a very educated guess. The fact that they can get it right some of the time is pretty amazing.
So if they've forecasted the passage of a frontal system (Which is bringing the rain forecast) and the pressure ahead of it is slightly higher than expected, for example, that frontal system may break up, stall, just move slower than expected........the possibilities are literally endless.
Well for one thing, both I and two other family members who all live in a 250 mile wide triangle of each other all got rained on this afternoon, so...
and given that this is clearly not a serious thread, I'm going to say that a weather presenter's job is to read an autocue, point to the right places on a green screen and often to have a good set of bangers. And they're usually pretty good at those things, so I refute your point.
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and given that this is clearly not a serious thread, I'm going to say that a weather presenter's job is to read an autocue, point to the right places on a green screen and often to have a good set of bangers. And they're usually pretty good at those things, so I refute your point.
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The technology is incredibly complex and uses a lot of mathematical algorithms. That has, in fact made forecasts so accurate they can assign a percentage probability of rain. Usually they state 90% chance of rain. Very local factors probably accounted for the other 10% - which you experienced.
Frankly a pine cone is just as accurate.
Frankly a pine cone is just as accurate.
I've never understood this percentage chance of rain thing. I mean, as far as I am concerned walking about, it either blinking rains or it doesn't. I don't get 90% rained on. How is telling me the odds going to help!
As for the OP's complaint, it was better than being told it was going to be fine all day, and then getting soaked.
Some people are never happy.
As for the OP's complaint, it was better than being told it was going to be fine all day, and then getting soaked.
Some people are never happy.
Kermit power said:
Yet again, I took a coat and umbrella into the office today, because weather.co.uk and the BBC weather app were both telling me it would be hammering it down from about 3pm onwards.
Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
Never ever rely on the BBC for an accurate weather forecast. Yesterday for example, they showed at least three scenarios for the area in which I live. Every time I clicked on the BBC website, it changed. Useless. Yet they still stand there like smug know-it-alls. Twots.Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
I have some sympathy for the point of view expressed by the OP. I also read the forecast for the next, say, 3-4 hours and react accordingly. They seem to get wind strength/gusts fairly accurate but cloud and rain is utterly useless. It can forecast heavy rain for the rest of the day, and over a whole region - but in practice nobody in that vast area gets any rain at all, not even a shower.
I thought we had invested £m's in new technology ?
I thought we had invested £m's in new technology ?
IME as a walker, forecasts are reliable ish in winter, early-mid spring and mid-late autumn.
During our 'summer' period, rain can appear anywhere. It can miss you by a couple of milee, or you get soaked.
The real time radar apps help, like meteoradar, but personally i do the british thing and take a coat 'just in case' unless its warm, then who cares about a shower?
During our 'summer' period, rain can appear anywhere. It can miss you by a couple of milee, or you get soaked.
The real time radar apps help, like meteoradar, but personally i do the british thing and take a coat 'just in case' unless its warm, then who cares about a shower?
mcelliott said:
Never ever rely on the BBC for an accurate weather forecast. Yesterday for example, they showed at least three scenarios for the area in which I live. Every time I clicked on the BBC website, it changed. Useless. Yet they still stand there like smug know-it-alls. Twots.
Maybe the BBC should go back to using the Met Office for their weather?Mind you, I love it when the Mail, Express et al say that we're in for a scorching summer or a bad winter 6 months in advance...
Kermit power said:
Yet again, I took a coat and umbrella into the office today, because weather.co.uk and the BBC weather app were both telling me it would be hammering it down from about 3pm onwards.
Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
They predicted very heavy rain in our area a few days back, even gave a yellow weather warning - but our village saw very little if any (a few spots). Two to three miles down the road, the roads were flooded.Yet again, I've returned home perfectly dry without a spot of rain having fallen from the grey skies.
I can understand them struggling to predict the weather more than a couple of days in advance, but how on earth do they get away with being so consistently completely wrong at such short notice??
Even if they know it's going to rain in a general area - I think it's a bit much to expect them to predict down to the mile. A slight change in wind direction can mean the difference between getting a deluge or remaining bone dry.
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