Odds, probabilities and "what's the chances of that?"
Discussion
sunbeam alpine said:
I don't know but if he's only had 3 sheep die in 17 years he's a bloody good farmer...
...unless he only had 3 sheep, in which case he sucks!
If he only had 3 which arrived 17 years ago and they've all just died he's a pretty good farmer! ...unless he only had 3 sheep, in which case he sucks!
I think sheep only live a decade or so, maybe 15 years top end. 17 years is a bloody good innings!
OK, if all the fields are the same, then sheep 1 could have died in any field . The chances of sheep 2 and 3 both dying in the same field as sheep 1 is ten thousand to one. (100 x 100).
It's quite possible, but unlikely. My guess is something environmental in that field is killing them.
It's quite possible, but unlikely. My guess is something environmental in that field is killing them.
Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Tuesday 27th October 15:11
How about this.
Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.
SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.
She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........
Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.
SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.
She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........
Bluesgirl said:
Surely it’s 10,000 to one that sheep 2 dies in the same field, but 1,000,000 to one that the third sheep dies there too.
Nope. It's a million to one chance for you correctly pick a field for all 3 to die in, before the first one has died. But in this case, the 1st one can die in any field. The chances of the next 1 dying in that field are 100/1. The chances of the next 2 dying in that same field are 10,000/1. Wiry PAYE said:
A few weeks ago I stayed in two different hotels on consecutive nights in the same city. I was given the same room number in both hotels. A week or so later I returned to the city and stayed in the second of the two hotels and was given the same room again.
Ah, Mr Bond, we have been expecting you.Bluesgirl said:
Surely it’s 10,000 to one that sheep 2 dies in the same field, but 1,000,000 to one that the third sheep dies there too.
Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match. Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match.
Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.
Gotcha.Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.
Bluesgirl said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match.
Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.
Gotcha.Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.
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