Discussion
The Strauss-Howe theory posits a major, cataclysmic war roughly every 80 years or so. If it holds true, we are currently around that mark. As for whether it happens or not remains to be seen. One friend of mine was utterly convinced that the flashpoint for the next major war would be the South China Sea. To consider it as a starting point isn't unreasonable - the James Bond film 'Tomorrow Never Dies' presented the basis for a war there in 1998!
Can't see it myself. The world, or at least the major powers are too interlinked for it to get to that far anymore. They'll be posturing as ever and pushing some limits, but not full scale war between those which ultimately matter. They all know with the nukes it would signal the end of the world as we know it and no-one really wants that, because what is there to win?
Wacky Racer said:
Do you think it will happen in your lifetime?
There was only twenty one years between the last two.
We have now gone seventy six since the last one.
Nope never again. Nukes have put paid to that. Today / now is perhaps the safest time that mankind has ever known with pretty much zero war around the world. Hence why people get so upset about gender pronouns etc, there is relatively fThere was only twenty one years between the last two.
We have now gone seventy six since the last one.
k all for people to worry about so they worry about nonsense.TX.
towser44 said:
Can't see it myself. The world, or at least the major powers are too interlinked for it to get to that far anymore. They'll be posturing as ever and pushing some limits, but not full scale war between those which ultimately matter. They all know with the nukes it would signal the end of the world as we know it and no-one really wants that, because what is there to win?
You left out the bit where the major powers are constantly interfearing with vulnerable smaller countries that don't have a nucular power and causing death a destruction in the name of world peace and guarding resources.f
king priceless.
The likely flashpoint for the next major peer war would be the re-taking of Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has made it clear that he wants reunification of China by the 100th anniversary of Republic of China in 2049. This is called 'the rejuvenation of China'. If the US let it happen, all good. As it stands today the US has the 'Taiwan Relations Act'. It's ambiguous on military assistance for good reasons, but there are terms in there that would suggest that the US would be very involved in the defence of Taiwan from any attacker. Chances are, there will be military confrontation around Taiwan. What will then likely happen is that North Korea will attack South Korea. Probably based on how well its going with Taiwan.
War on 2 fronts.
Should the US be committed to this war on two fronts, its quite possible that Russia would see an opportune moment to re-take some of Eastern Europe to create a new USSR if Putin has managed to put together a succession that will follow his wishes. The fact is, Europe would likely not receive much in the way of reinforcement to US Armed Forces Europe. Putin (more likely his successor) would get his USSR to lord over. Will Ukraine have developed as a strong potential EU member state in that time?
Israel may well end up in a sticky situation whilst the US is committed to the Pacific.
China would almost certainly control Taiwan based on the numbers game and absorbing it in to mainland China can begin (very very severe refugee crisis). In doing so, probably causing much disruption to the industries there. It would be very messy on the Korean peninsular. Very messy indeed. Additionally there is already a problem with drought which is affecting IC production. give that another 20 years - maybe we re-shore it all, or maybe another solution is found.
The rest of the world will suffer from the problems such conflicts would cause to the output of these highly industrialised nations.
The US pivot to the pacific is happening now. The technological race to create equipment optimised for this battlespace is happening now. It's clear to see for those who follow such things. I follow the engineering and to a lesser degree the geopolitics.
China securing the Spratlys and all the other little bits of land just under or out of the sea in this area is them setting up their outer perimeter. They are now strong enough to be able to do this with impunity. No one's going to stop them. There have been some fairly poor attempts to slow down/divert belt and road but that's hardly opposed either. This wins votes in places like the UN and WHO as and when needed. Lots of grand plan stuff going on.
It would be great if none of this happens.
The best thing we can do in Europe is to re-shore industries especially high tech manufacturing industries and reduce our dependence on China. Accept the higher costs that this brings or work to reduce the costs.
In the meantime things will bubble away between places like India and Pakistan, India and China, Iran and the US, Iran and parts of Iraq, whatever Turkey is aiming to become (Islamic super state imo).
That's the next 30 years work sorted...
Xi Jinping has made it clear that he wants reunification of China by the 100th anniversary of Republic of China in 2049. This is called 'the rejuvenation of China'. If the US let it happen, all good. As it stands today the US has the 'Taiwan Relations Act'. It's ambiguous on military assistance for good reasons, but there are terms in there that would suggest that the US would be very involved in the defence of Taiwan from any attacker. Chances are, there will be military confrontation around Taiwan. What will then likely happen is that North Korea will attack South Korea. Probably based on how well its going with Taiwan.
War on 2 fronts.
Should the US be committed to this war on two fronts, its quite possible that Russia would see an opportune moment to re-take some of Eastern Europe to create a new USSR if Putin has managed to put together a succession that will follow his wishes. The fact is, Europe would likely not receive much in the way of reinforcement to US Armed Forces Europe. Putin (more likely his successor) would get his USSR to lord over. Will Ukraine have developed as a strong potential EU member state in that time?
Israel may well end up in a sticky situation whilst the US is committed to the Pacific.
China would almost certainly control Taiwan based on the numbers game and absorbing it in to mainland China can begin (very very severe refugee crisis). In doing so, probably causing much disruption to the industries there. It would be very messy on the Korean peninsular. Very messy indeed. Additionally there is already a problem with drought which is affecting IC production. give that another 20 years - maybe we re-shore it all, or maybe another solution is found.
The rest of the world will suffer from the problems such conflicts would cause to the output of these highly industrialised nations.
The US pivot to the pacific is happening now. The technological race to create equipment optimised for this battlespace is happening now. It's clear to see for those who follow such things. I follow the engineering and to a lesser degree the geopolitics.
China securing the Spratlys and all the other little bits of land just under or out of the sea in this area is them setting up their outer perimeter. They are now strong enough to be able to do this with impunity. No one's going to stop them. There have been some fairly poor attempts to slow down/divert belt and road but that's hardly opposed either. This wins votes in places like the UN and WHO as and when needed. Lots of grand plan stuff going on.
It would be great if none of this happens.
The best thing we can do in Europe is to re-shore industries especially high tech manufacturing industries and reduce our dependence on China. Accept the higher costs that this brings or work to reduce the costs.
In the meantime things will bubble away between places like India and Pakistan, India and China, Iran and the US, Iran and parts of Iraq, whatever Turkey is aiming to become (Islamic super state imo).
That's the next 30 years work sorted...
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 5th September 00:16
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 5th September 00:34
Terminator X said:
Nope never again. Nukes have put paid to that. Today / now is perhaps the safest time that mankind has ever known...
TX.
Not so sure about that TX. Considering the proliferation of ideologically fanatical regimes. TX.
I think there might easily be a major war which could quickly escalate globally. And it's not unlikely to be a nuclear war.
Doesn't take much imagination to see Tel Aviv turning into a glass carpark if Iran or the Taliban (for example) succeed in getting hold of tactical battlefield nukes or developing their own.
The major powers would then be compelled to stamp on it with immediate and overwhelming force, probably also nuclear.
Error_404_Username_not_found said:
Not so sure about that TX. Considering the proliferation of ideologically fanatical regimes.
I think there might easily be a major war which could quickly escalate globally. And it's not unlikely to be a nuclear war.
Doesn't take much imagination to see Tel Aviv turning into a glass carpark if Iran or the Taliban (for example) succeed in getting hold of tactical battlefield nukes or developing their own.
The major powers would then be compelled to stamp on it with immediate and overwhelming force, probably also nuclear.
Iran are on record saying they will accept losing half their country if Israel is obliterated.I think there might easily be a major war which could quickly escalate globally. And it's not unlikely to be a nuclear war.
Doesn't take much imagination to see Tel Aviv turning into a glass carpark if Iran or the Taliban (for example) succeed in getting hold of tactical battlefield nukes or developing their own.
The major powers would then be compelled to stamp on it with immediate and overwhelming force, probably also nuclear.
A worthwhile price in their eyes.
SCS is definitely heating up and the issue of Taiwan rejecting the CCP is something that they won’t tolerate by the sounds they make.
I’m not going to lose sleep on it but it’s certainly a worry.
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