Falling birth rates
Discussion
I saw a clip from Japan earlier in the week. They had been studying the falling birth rate and were projecting that whole areas of Japan could die out in the future as low birth rate and lack of children will make some communities unviable.
It is not a new problem in Japan and they have been trying, but failing, to increase the birth rate for many years.
I think all rich countries have a problem with falling birth rates. Some, like the U.K., have been aided in recent years by immigration of younger people (including those from countries that currently have a higher birth rate). Japan is of course famously xenophobic, not immigrant friendly and have a language that is extremely difficult for most people to learn (unless you are Chinese or Korean). So they are particularly impacted.
Despite lots of talk about the problem no-one seems to be fixing it (in terms of increasing birth rates).
It does make me wonder what countries like Japan and South Korea will do in the not too distant future when they have more than 50% of the country over 60. Will the Japanese have to give up on retirement? Who will provide all the care required for such an aged population?
Globally what will happen to GDP if the countries that produce most of the GDP are facing aging and shrinking populations? The capitalist system is built on constant growth, not constant decline. Will investment decisions be affected if people think that markets for their products will shrink? I suppose the market for some products (incontinence pants!) will be increasing though so perhaps there will just be a switch as people chase the grey dollar.
It is not a new problem in Japan and they have been trying, but failing, to increase the birth rate for many years.
I think all rich countries have a problem with falling birth rates. Some, like the U.K., have been aided in recent years by immigration of younger people (including those from countries that currently have a higher birth rate). Japan is of course famously xenophobic, not immigrant friendly and have a language that is extremely difficult for most people to learn (unless you are Chinese or Korean). So they are particularly impacted.
Despite lots of talk about the problem no-one seems to be fixing it (in terms of increasing birth rates).
It does make me wonder what countries like Japan and South Korea will do in the not too distant future when they have more than 50% of the country over 60. Will the Japanese have to give up on retirement? Who will provide all the care required for such an aged population?
Globally what will happen to GDP if the countries that produce most of the GDP are facing aging and shrinking populations? The capitalist system is built on constant growth, not constant decline. Will investment decisions be affected if people think that markets for their products will shrink? I suppose the market for some products (incontinence pants!) will be increasing though so perhaps there will just be a switch as people chase the grey dollar.
borcy said:
They've known about it since the 70s/80s but none of them really want to deal with it in japan or s korea. Just keep fiddling about at the edges and hope it works, which it hasn't and won't.
S Koreas fertility rate is particularly low
It’s dramatic in Korea. Less than 1 (when replacement is 2.1) and in Seoul I think about 0.6. With no sign of the trend reversing at the moment.S Koreas fertility rate is particularly low
Skeptisk said:
borcy said:
They've known about it since the 70s/80s but none of them really want to deal with it in japan or s korea. Just keep fiddling about at the edges and hope it works, which it hasn't and won't.
S Koreas fertility rate is particularly low
It’s dramatic in Korea. Less than 1 (when replacement is 2.1) and in Seoul I think about 0.6. With no sign of the trend reversing at the moment.S Koreas fertility rate is particularly low
The govs policies are killing off the country.
Its only an issue in the rural areas, IME.
In the UK only 5 cities have a population of >1M.
In Japan thats 13. With 2 more very very close to 1M.
Tokyo metro area has nearly 40M people.
This issue really only becomes a problem in the rural places where there are no people left to run the local shops, government etc.
IIRC in recent years the JP govt has been encouraging some immigration. I believe south Americans. Brazil etc. But they have to be careful as the cities will just become even more crowded.
In the UK only 5 cities have a population of >1M.
In Japan thats 13. With 2 more very very close to 1M.
Tokyo metro area has nearly 40M people.
This issue really only becomes a problem in the rural places where there are no people left to run the local shops, government etc.
IIRC in recent years the JP govt has been encouraging some immigration. I believe south Americans. Brazil etc. But they have to be careful as the cities will just become even more crowded.
Ambleton said:
And yet global population has more than doubled in the last 50yrs, which seems absolutely crackers to me.
From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
Isn’t nearly all of the that in Africa and South America? From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
MiniMan64 said:
Ambleton said:
And yet global population has more than doubled in the last 50yrs, which seems absolutely crackers to me.
From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
Isn’t nearly all of the that in Africa and South America? From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
Caught a brief snapshot of Radio 4 Woman's hour yesterday whilst running errands so didn't hear whole piece.
Some study into reasons for termination of pregnancy. Quite a significant percentage were citing the cost of childcare as a reason not to pursue pregnancy.
I appreciate that, on such a sensitive issue, respondents might not give entirely truthful answers but that struck me as really sad.
Some study into reasons for termination of pregnancy. Quite a significant percentage were citing the cost of childcare as a reason not to pursue pregnancy.
I appreciate that, on such a sensitive issue, respondents might not give entirely truthful answers but that struck me as really sad.
MiniMan64 said:
Ambleton said:
And yet global population has more than doubled in the last 50yrs, which seems absolutely crackers to me.
From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
Isn’t nearly all of the that in Africa and South America? From less than 4 billion in 1970 to more than 8billion today.
Religion, healthcare and education has a lot to do with it.
Quite interesting when you look at the development.
Religion = make a tonne of babies to fill the world but with a high infant/mother mortality and generally a shorter lifespan
+ healthcare system = families that used to have 9+kids to get 3/4 surviving into adulthood becomes 9 adults with more birthing mothers surviving so it goes a bit bananas.
+ Education = people learn that you don't need to have millions of kids and actually there's a life balance that needs to me maintained. People want to earn money to have a higher (perceived) quality of life. And the next generation realises they now have to support the aging population of the massive boom before.
Religion = make a tonne of babies to fill the world but with a high infant/mother mortality and generally a shorter lifespan
+ healthcare system = families that used to have 9+kids to get 3/4 surviving into adulthood becomes 9 adults with more birthing mothers surviving so it goes a bit bananas.
+ Education = people learn that you don't need to have millions of kids and actually there's a life balance that needs to me maintained. People want to earn money to have a higher (perceived) quality of life. And the next generation realises they now have to support the aging population of the massive boom before.
It doesn’t need to be “fixed.”
The global population continues to increase, putting a massive strain on land use and resources, and damaging the environment. If we could find a way to manage our way through a century of falling population and get down to one or two billion then it’d be a far better outcome than working to continue to increase the population.
The global population continues to increase, putting a massive strain on land use and resources, and damaging the environment. If we could find a way to manage our way through a century of falling population and get down to one or two billion then it’d be a far better outcome than working to continue to increase the population.
Skeptisk said:
I saw a clip from Japan earlier in the week. They had been studying the falling birth rate and were projecting that whole areas of Japan could die out in the future as low birth rate and lack of children will make some communities unviable.
It is not a new problem in Japan and they have been trying, but failing, to increase the birth rate for many years.
I think all rich countries have a problem with falling birth rates. Some, like the U.K., have been aided in recent years by immigration of younger people (including those from countries that currently have a higher birth rate). Japan is of course famously xenophobic, not immigrant friendly and have a language that is extremely difficult for most people to learn (unless you are Chinese or Korean). So they are particularly impacted.
Despite lots of talk about the problem no-one seems to be fixing it (in terms of increasing birth rates).
It does make me wonder what countries like Japan and South Korea will do in the not too distant future when they have more than 50% of the country over 60. Will the Japanese have to give up on retirement? Who will provide all the care required for such an aged population?
Globally what will happen to GDP if the countries that produce most of the GDP are facing aging and shrinking populations? The capitalist system is built on constant growth, not constant decline. Will investment decisions be affected if people think that markets for their products will shrink? I suppose the market for some products (incontinence pants!) will be increasing though so perhaps there will just be a switch as people chase the grey dollar.
I think that your thread is based upon a false assumption.It is not a new problem in Japan and they have been trying, but failing, to increase the birth rate for many years.
I think all rich countries have a problem with falling birth rates. Some, like the U.K., have been aided in recent years by immigration of younger people (including those from countries that currently have a higher birth rate). Japan is of course famously xenophobic, not immigrant friendly and have a language that is extremely difficult for most people to learn (unless you are Chinese or Korean). So they are particularly impacted.
Despite lots of talk about the problem no-one seems to be fixing it (in terms of increasing birth rates).
It does make me wonder what countries like Japan and South Korea will do in the not too distant future when they have more than 50% of the country over 60. Will the Japanese have to give up on retirement? Who will provide all the care required for such an aged population?
Globally what will happen to GDP if the countries that produce most of the GDP are facing aging and shrinking populations? The capitalist system is built on constant growth, not constant decline. Will investment decisions be affected if people think that markets for their products will shrink? I suppose the market for some products (incontinence pants!) will be increasing though so perhaps there will just be a switch as people chase the grey dollar.
The assumption being that a falling birth rate is a bad thing. I suggest it isn't a bad thing - it is a good thing - if controlled.
We are constantly being lectured about global warming. Why is the globe getting warmer? Because there are too many of us. The world's population has quadrupled in my lifetime (I am old) from around 2 billion to around 8 billion. It is forecast that all counties with the exception of some in sub-Saharan Africa will hall falling populations by the end of this century.
That's good, isn't it? no more agonising over whether that tiny item should go in the re-cycling bin or the general rubbish bin! Because if you got it wrong you would destroy the planet!
We have coped with a doubling of the world's population since the 70s, we can cope with a gentle, controlled reduction of the numbers in the world.
Ken_Code said:
It doesn’t need to be “fixed.”
The global population continues to increase, putting a massive strain on land use and resources, and damaging the environment. If we could find a way to manage our way through a century of falling population and get down to one or two billion then it’d be a far better outcome than working to continue to increase the population.
Far too many humans on the planet, a falling birthday rate is a good thing. Shame is not falling everywhere.The global population continues to increase, putting a massive strain on land use and resources, and damaging the environment. If we could find a way to manage our way through a century of falling population and get down to one or two billion then it’d be a far better outcome than working to continue to increase the population.
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