Friday Statistics Fun - Musings at 9am
Friday Statistics Fun - Musings at 9am
Author
Discussion

littlegreenfairy

Original Poster:

10,134 posts

244 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
We're having a discussion in the office about really expensive engagement rings and being afraid to wear them for fear of them being stolen.

One person's mother was so afraid of wearing her rings outside that she kept them in the safe - only to have them stolen whilst she was away.

We're now wondering what the statistics are for having rings stolen whilst you are wearing them compared to statistics for home break ins.

Can anyone help or point me in the right direction? Fag packet calculations will do. biggrin

Mad as a box of frogs I know, but it is Friday morning.

elster

17,517 posts

233 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
You would have to go through all individual muggings to see if an engagement ring is stolen.

Then all home break ins to see when jewellery is stolen. Then call round those people to see if they left their engagement ring at home, if they had one.

So in answer. I think you would struggle.


DrTre

12,957 posts

255 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
Using an advanced Bayesian statistical model I perfected not 5 seconds ago:

No of fingers = 10
No of fingers with ring on = 1

Therefore

1 in 10 chance of getting it stolen.


Not that one

2,496 posts

218 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
I've never had one stolen whilst I was wearing it.
I've never had one stolen from home.

Therefore, there is exactly the same chance that you will have one nicked whilst wearing it, as there is of having it nicked whilst its at home.

Case closed.

NTO

Pints

18,449 posts

217 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
The answer is 42.

elster

17,517 posts

233 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
Sorry forgot to add you are infact on a higher plain than this box of frogs.

Mr Scruff

1,383 posts

238 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
DrTre said:
Using an advanced Bayesian statistical model I perfected not 5 seconds ago:

No of fingers = 10
No of fingers with ring on = 1

Therefore

1 in 10 chance of getting it stolen.
This man speaks sense.

littlegreenfairy

Original Poster:

10,134 posts

244 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
According to yahoo answers, 42% of the UK's population is married, and 31% co-habiting. So that's approximately 43% of 60,944,000 (26,205,920)

Assuming there are 2 people in the households where the people are married, this equals 13,102,920 households.

The number of burglaries in the UK last year was 75600. This equates to 0.57% of households.

Assuming that 1/10 would leave their rings at home (roughly worked out by asking in the office who would/woudn't)

That isn't very many is it...

My informed decision is that you're more likely to be mugged for your rings than having them stolen from a safe at home. I come to this conclusion because you hear of more people being robbed on holidays for jewellery.

Nurse. Bring the pills.

elster

17,517 posts

233 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
littlegreenfairy said:
According to yahoo answers, 42% of the UK's population is married, and 31% co-habiting. So that's approximately 43% of 60,944,000 (26,205,920)

Assuming there are 2 people in the households where the people are married, this equals 13,102,920 households.

The number of burglaries in the UK last year was 75600. This equates to 0.57% of households.

Assuming that 1/10 would leave their rings at home (roughly worked out by asking in the office who would/woudn't)

That isn't very many is it...

My informed decision is that you're more likely to be mugged for your rings than having them stolen from a safe at home. I come to this conclusion because you hear of more people being robbed on holidays for jewellery.

Nurse. Bring the pills.
You could work it to however you want it to.

What answer would you like? That is the point of statistics after all.

DrTre

12,957 posts

255 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
Upon further investigation of my model it would appear that the chance of a theft occurring actually decreases in places like Norfolk, Derbyshire, Wales and Northamptonshire.

elster

17,517 posts

233 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
DrTre said:
Upon further investigation of my model it would appear that the chance of a theft occurring actually decreases in places like Norfolk, Derbyshire, Wales and Northamptonshire.
Surely it depends how large the family.

If there are 4 brothers and sisters. They will each have 4 engagement rings.

littlegreenfairy

Original Poster:

10,134 posts

244 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
[quote=elster
You could work it to however you want it to.

What answer would you like? That is the point of statistics after all.
[/quote]

I quite like that answer.

It'll do smile

El Guapo

2,787 posts

213 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
elster said:
Sorry forgot to add you are infact on a higher plain than this box of frogs.
Is that the plain where the rain falls, mainly?

GreatGranny

9,519 posts

249 months

Friday 17th July 2009
quotequote all
We goy burgled about 10 years ago and my wife's engagement ring was stolen.

With the insurance money (three as much as I paid for it smile ) we went to buy another and she chose one completely different to the one stolen! She then admitted that she never liked it. Note to self, next time let the future Mrs GreatGranny be present at the purchase.