Where did all the Hurricanes go?

[Targarama]

Is it me not paying attention, or have there been just a few large storms coming into the Gulf/US Eastern Seaboard for the 2009 Hurricane season? Much less than the past few years?

Normally the MMGW folks tell us increased extreme weather is another sign they are right...

[G_T]

Weather = Short term.
Climate = Average of the weather over two solar cycles or 30 years (I think!).

Much in the same way that the recent localised cold snap doesn't disprove any global long terms trends. Weather is not proof of climate unless you take an average over a long period of time.

I hadn't heard about "extremes" of weather regarding hurricanes though...

[Matt Evans]

They blew away.

Edited by Matt Evans on Thursday 28th January 12:27

[Lefty Two Drams]

I bet this gets moved to Planes, Boats and Trains...

[Extra 300 Driver]

http://www.hawker-restorations-ltd.co.uk/

[dirty boy]

G_T said:

Much in the same way that the recent localised cold snap doesn't disprove any global long terms trends. Weather is not proof of climate unless you take an average over a long period of time.

That's because there isn't anything to disprove.

[Tony*T3]

Targarama said:

Is it me not paying attention, or have there been just a few large storms coming into the Gulf/US Eastern Seaboard for the 2009 Hurricane season? Much less than the past few years?

Normally the MMGW folks tell us increased extreme weather is another sign they are right...

Wilst 2009 was particularly quite, 2008 was severe, locally. No big 'Katrina' sytle events hitting the USA, but 4 (yes 4!!!) major Hurricanes ripped into Haiti in a matter of weeks. If they had hit more 'popular' areas more would have been made of it.


So it all kind of evens out. If it was quite last year, you can expect it to be less so this or next.

[Muzzlehatch]

G_T said:

Weather = Short term.
Climate = Average of the weather over two solar cycles or 30 years (I think!).

According to Mark Twain,

Climate = What we expect to get
Weather = What we get


HTH

[zakelwe]

Yes, I think the ACE value was well down last year.

There is no proved connection between hurricane numbers and strength and AGW ( though higher SST's could increase strength) so it is amusing to hear politicians going on about it when a cyclone hits.

Andy

[Bing o]

G_T said:

Weather = Short term.
Climate = Average of the weather over two solar cycles or 30 years (I think!).

Much in the same way that the recent localised cold snap doesn't disprove any global long terms trends. Weather is not proof of climate unless you take an average over a long period of time.

I hadn't heard about "extremes" of weather regarding hurricanes though...

Then you weren't paying enough attention, we were supposed to be seeing an increase in hurricanes.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050915_more...

But of course, like all MMGW, it's a load of horsest.

[Puggit]

If any Hurricanes hit Haiti in 2010, you will definitely hear about it.

The country wasn't well prepared for hurricanes before the earthquake. Now the destruction of the country will be neatly tied up by one...

[alock]

G_T said:

Weather = Short term.
Climate = Average of the weather over two solar cycles or 30 years (I think!).

Much in the same way that the recent localised cold snap doesn't disprove any global long terms trends. Weather is not proof of climate unless you take an average over a long period of time.

I hadn't heard about "extremes" of weather regarding hurricanes though...

The IPCC define it as the average over 30 years. I've never understood this as all of their graphs for the last 11 years have had 1998 plotted on it. I wonder why they are so keen to get this year on their graphs?

Why can't they plot a climate graph with temperatures averaged over 30 years that therefore stops at 1995? It's almost as if they have a hidden agenda.

[G_T]

Sorry yes of course. I'd forgotten it was all just a massive conspiracy. Leaving that aside for a moment...

I still don't think some of you are following though... Weather = short term, Climate = long term.

So if we have 5 years of cold weather and 25 years of warmer weather, then the climate is warmer (than the previous 30 years). As it is an average.

So no hurricanes this year does not mean that, as an average, there will not be more over a longer period. So the theory remains valid. For now at least.

Edited by G_T on Thursday 28th January 14:54

[ErnestM]

G_T said:

Sorry yes of course. I'd forgotten it was all just a massive conspiracy. Leaving that aside for a moment...

I still don't think some of you are following though... Weather = short term, Climate = long term.

So if we have 5 years of cold weather and 25 years of warmer weather, then the climate is warmer (than the previous 30 years). As it is an average.

So no hurricanes this year does not mean that, as an average, there will not be more over a longer period. So the theory remains valid. For now at least.

I'm just glad it was a slow season this year

However,

If they can't get the weather=short term even remotely correct, I don't think that I, personally am going to lend any creadance to their climate=long term predictions either. (Or at least not until they quit fudging the numbers or give me (real) science from people that aren't massively invested in the idea for grants, power or personal gain)

Just MHO from somebody in the hurricane corridor.

[G_T]

It's your call but there is plenty of data out there that hasn't been "fudged".

[Muzzlehatch]

G_T said:

It's your call but there is plenty of data out there that hasn't been "fudged".

Is there any data that shows human activity to have an effect on the natural variation of the global climate?

[nelly1]

G_T said:

...I still don't think some of you are following though... Weather = short term, Climate = long term.

So if we have 5 years of cold weather and 25 years of warmer weather, then the climate is warmer (than the previous 30 years). As it is an average...

Ha! 'Long Term' = 30 years

Why not 100 years, or 500, or 2000, or 2 million...?

30 years is only used as it suits the agenda.

...although the last 10 years is being airbrushed out...

Edited by nelly1 on Thursday 28th January 16:15

[Dogsey]

G_T said:

... the recent localised cold snap ...

By localised I assume you mean the entire northern hemisphere?

[Cara Van Man]

Dogsey said:

G_T said:

... the recent localised cold snap ...

That's only because all us 'TVR/Porsche/Ferrari/insert sports car of choice' owners Sorned our cars over winter.

Want us to get them out and warm it up for you?

[G_T]

nelly1 said:

G_T said:

...I still don't think some of you are following though... Weather = short term, Climate = long term.

So if we have 5 years of cold weather and 25 years of warmer weather, then the climate is warmer (than the previous 30 years). As it is an average...

Ha! 'Long Term' = 30 years.

Why not 100 years, or 500, or 2000, or 2 million...?

30 years is only used as it suits the agenda.

Actually it's 30 years because thats what the World Meterological Organization (WMO) defines it as. I believe the reason for this is to do with solar cyles. But don't let that spoil your conspiracy theory. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/

2 million is clearly not an option because the environment is almost unrecognisable since then. It has to be relative afterall.

Edited by G_T on Thursday 28th January 16:46