Weather forecasters: just stop, ok?!
Weather forecasters: just stop, ok?!
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V8mate

Original Poster:

45,899 posts

220 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Shouldn't we call time on this mystic bks?

They are never right. Ever.

At least, they're no more right than you or I would be standing out in our garden each evening, looking around and deciding what tomorrow will bring.

According to last night's forecast, there should have been torrential rain here for the last six hours. Of course, there has been nothing. How often do their forecasts utterly ruin people's plans. And if they can't forecast tomorrow's weather, what hope is there for the thousands which companies fork out for long range prophecies?

I've tried every 'no this weather forecasting organisation is better than that one' suggestion and they are all wrong more often than right. I beat bookies more often than weather forecasters get their predictions right!

Isn't it about time meteorologists were bagged up and ostracised along with religious fundamentalists et al and made to give back their three minute slots to the nation?

Stu R

21,701 posts

246 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
We're a git of a place to predict the weather for. Well, that's not entirely true, predicting rain is a safe bet most of the time.

V8mate

Original Poster:

45,899 posts

220 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Stu R said:
We're a git of a place to predict the weather for. Well, that's not entirely true, predicting rain is a safe bet most of the time.
Is that a defence to incompetence though? If that's true, couldn't they acknowledge it and not bother?

mattviatura

2,996 posts

231 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Laura Tobin can say whatever she likes as far as I'm concerned.

Police State

4,380 posts

251 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
V8mate said:
Shouldn't we call time on this mystic bks?

They are never right. Ever.

At least, they're no more right than you or I would be standing out in our garden each evening, looking around and deciding what tomorrow will bring.

According to last night's forecast, there should have been torrential rain here for the last six hours. Of course, there has been nothing. How often do their forecasts utterly ruin people's plans. And if they can't forecast tomorrow's weather, what hope is there for the thousands which companies fork out for long range prophecies?

I've tried every 'no this weather forecasting organisation is better than that one' suggestion and they are all wrong more often than right. I beat bookies more often than weather forecasters get their predictions right!

Isn't it about time meteorologists were bagged up and ostracised along with religious fundamentalists et al and made to give back their three minute slots to the nation?
Which is the best website you have used so far? (paste a link)

motco

17,667 posts

277 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
They concetrate too much on being chummy 'personalities' for my taste. A couple of them cannot even enunciate clearly so part of the message is lost in mumbling. The clearest is the Polish chap Tomasz Chefernaaker (sp?) whose mother tongue resembles a box of bricks, and yet he speaks more intelligbly than the native versions.

eyebeebe

3,874 posts

264 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
I once read something that said if a weather forecaster said every day that tomorrow is going to be the same as today, they would be right more often than they are with their forecasts.

V8mate

Original Poster:

45,899 posts

220 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Police State said:
V8mate said:
OP stuff
Which is the best website you have used so far? (paste a link)
Accuweather has always had the most supporters IME, but I have foun them to be negligibly more accurate than the sorcerers at BBC/Met Office.

And why does the Met Office have different predictions on its website compared to those it supplies to the BBC? confused

ShadownINja

80,169 posts

313 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Out of interest, how do they predict the weather 5 days ahead? I can use a barometer to predict the weather 5 or 6 hours in advance to reasonable accuracy but not days ahead.

V8mate

Original Poster:

45,899 posts

220 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
ShadownINja said:
Out of interest, how do they predict the weather 5 days ahead? I can use a barometer to predict the weather 5 or 6 hours in advance to reasonable accuracy but not days ahead.
They can't.

They must just look at clouds and prevailing winds and hope that things blow in the direction they think they might based on previous performance.

ShadownINja

80,169 posts

313 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
V8mate said:
ShadownINja said:
Out of interest, how do they predict the weather 5 days ahead? I can use a barometer to predict the weather 5 or 6 hours in advance to reasonable accuracy but not days ahead.
They can't.

They must just look at clouds and prevailing winds and hope that things blow in the direction they think they might based on previous performance.
Oh! I did wonder if it was something like that. I guess it makes sense and is as accurate as you can get, then. *pats his G-shock*

Timberwolf

5,374 posts

249 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
If I recall correctly (and it's a long time since I had this conversation, so it could have gone a bit hazy), the sequence of events goes something like this:

  • Met Office produces a detailed forecast with probabilities and possible outcomes, e.g. "50% chance precipitation, light to heavy."
  • BBC receives forecast.
  • BBC assume such scary ideas as probability will twist their viewers' melons, so weather presenter just says, "heavy rain tonight".
This has been the source of some friction between Met Office and BBC, as the Beeb argue the forecasts are rubbish, and the Met Office argue the BBC is incapable of reading them properly - because they ignore the probabilities, they end up predicting five solid days of heavy rain for what turns out to be a shower on Tuesday afternoon.

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

293 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
ShadownINja said:
Out of interest, how do they predict the weather 5 days ahead? I can use a barometer to predict the weather 5 or 6 hours in advance to reasonable accuracy but not days ahead.
they have a fking great Cray computer that can model down to 0.5.km2 in the uk, paid for by you and me.

That and their climate change bias piss me off.

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

293 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
V8mate said:
Police State said:
V8mate said:
OP stuff
Which is the best website you have used so far? (paste a link)
Accuweather has always had the most supporters IME, but I have foun them to be negligibly more accurate than the sorcerers at BBC/Met Office.
http://www.carseweather.co.uk/wxfore.php

ironictwist

7,127 posts

236 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
I only pay attention to the one for the next morning/evening...Even then it's only right 60%~ of the time, otherwise it tends to be wrong. Anything further than that is a waste of time to listen to.

stellacheersmate

2,498 posts

200 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Weather forecasting is still a developing science.

Atleast that's the excuse the Met office used when awarding large bonuses to forcasters last year...

Police State

4,380 posts

251 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
V8mate said:
Police State said:
V8mate said:
OP stuff
Which is the best website you have used so far? (paste a link)
Accuweather has always had the most supporters IME, but I have foun them to be negligibly more accurate than the sorcerers at BBC/Met Office.

And why does the Met Office have different predictions on its website compared to those it supplies to the BBC? confused
Have you used The Met Office's 'Invent' Page? I find it's usually very accurate. And a cool interface too.


Edited by Police State on Sunday 3rd October 14:30

summit7

1,314 posts

260 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
Becky Martin, she can be wrong with me every day of the week !

Yes OP weather forecasting is st, then they expect us to believe they can tell what the weather will be like in 100 years time!!!

bazking69

8,620 posts

221 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
They predicted heavy rain all day down where I am. I'm currently sat out in the garden basking in the sun as I write this...

motco

17,667 posts

277 months

Sunday 3rd October 2010
quotequote all
summit7 said:
Becky Martin, she can be wrong with me every day of the week !
The aforesaid and delightful Becky is now a wife and soon to be a mother from the look of her.