Actual half / marathon event times vs expected times?
Actual half / marathon event times vs expected times?
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Fetchez la vache

Original Poster:

5,898 posts

243 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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Running my first half marathon in a few weeks (Cardiff half) and my training would suggest I'll be just under the 2 hour mark which is my aim for my 1st half. (NB ran my first 10m yesterday averaging a 9:00/mile which I'm chuffed with)

I'm simply wondering whether peoples times tend to go up or down vs. what they expected at these events.
I can imagine the atmosphere helping to take a bit off the time, but conversely running with x000 other people and not being able to keep my ideal pace being a royal pain in the arse tbh.

Scabutz

8,834 posts

109 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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Get your pacing right is critical and the biggest mistake beginners make. Big events the tendency is to get carried away with the crowd. Pick a conservative time, stick to that pace. If you're feeling good with a few miles to go then pick up the pace.

Go too hard early on and you'll pay for it later.

C0ffin D0dger

3,440 posts

174 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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As someone who's also around that 2 hour mark and as mentioned above trying to reign yourself in a bit can be an important thing to do.

If I just go out to run a 10k then I'll just do it at a comfortable pace that I can maintain but on a 10k event I tend to get carried along with other runners and the crowd and will go at it at quite a quick pace. 8m30 per mile has been my best result but I was knackered at the end of it and could not have done another 10k. Pretty much every 10k event I've done I've set a new PB.

I did my first half this year at the Stratford-on-Avon event, whilst still carried by the atmosphere of the event I did manage to keep my pace down for the early miles but perhaps a bit quicker than in training. It paid off as I still had some left in the legs and was able to wind it up a bit for the last mile or so. Did it in ~2h 2m which I was well pleased with.

I'm running the Worcester half this weekend, hoping to use event power a bit to see if I can go sub 2 hours but I think I also need to be sure I don't conk out 3 miles from the end. It could be interesting. Generally a quick course but it does have the odd pinch point that can be a disadvantage.

Think the upshot is that the atmosphere and other runners can be good for taking a few seconds off your mile pace but there may be bits where you get slowed. Just don't get carried away!

FredClogs

14,041 posts

190 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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I find with races (not that I'm ever really racing anyone other than myself) I tend to start too quick, whilst training I tend to start too slow. My race times are always a little faster than I run on my own, but not by much. I'll generally run a 10k on my own in around 50 mins, 47 ish in my last view races. My watch and Garmin app, based on my training history, recko s I should be running 43, which is hilarious.

If you're completing 10 miles you will probably do the half at around that same pace, just be prepared to hurt some the last 15 minutes or so.

RizzoTheRat

28,881 posts

221 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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FredClogs said:
My watch and Garmin app, based on my training history, recko s I should be running 43, which is hilarious.
I dunno what Garmin base their predictions on, but it has no link to reality, mine reckons I should be able to do 5k over 2 minutes faster than my parkrun PB laugh

Scabutz

8,834 posts

109 months

Monday 9th September 2019
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RizzoTheRat said:
FredClogs said:
My watch and Garmin app, based on my training history, recko s I should be running 43, which is hilarious.
I dunno what Garmin base their predictions on, but it has no link to reality, mine reckons I should be able to do 5k over 2 minutes faster than my parkrun PB laugh
A circus clairvoyant can give better predictions than Garmin watches. I ran a fast 5k, it told me I had a new threshold and then the race predictor decided I could run it 5 minutes faster. No mate I literally just "raced" it and that was my time

clonmult

10,529 posts

238 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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Scabutz said:
RizzoTheRat said:
FredClogs said:
My watch and Garmin app, based on my training history, recko s I should be running 43, which is hilarious.
I dunno what Garmin base their predictions on, but it has no link to reality, mine reckons I should be able to do 5k over 2 minutes faster than my parkrun PB laugh
A circus clairvoyant can give better predictions than Garmin watches. I ran a fast 5k, it told me I had a new threshold and then the race predictor decided I could run it 5 minutes faster. No mate I literally just "raced" it and that was my time
I was almost considering a Garmin or a new fitness tracker, may as well stick with my semi useless fitbit.

I'm just trying to get "back" into running (relative term - I have never truly been into running), and am going to be starting the local park run in a few weeks time. Historically I've normally been faster on the road than I have on a treadmill, so yesterdays 5k in 25 minutes bodes well for the park run. Then it'll be the gradual increase in distance until I have the confidence to run a half marathon.

But I'm thinking that 4 weeks isn't really enough time to prepare for a half marathon, so will have to look into events later on in the year.

PistonTim

723 posts

168 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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Only the race predictor is rubbish, but fitbits cant even begin to compare to garmins for running.

Scabutz

8,834 posts

109 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
clonmult said:
I was almost considering a Garmin or a new fitness tracker, may as well stick with my semi useless fitbit.

I'm just trying to get "back" into running (relative term - I have never truly been into running), and am going to be starting the local park run in a few weeks time. Historically I've normally been faster on the road than I have on a treadmill, so yesterdays 5k in 25 minutes bodes well for the park run. Then it'll be the gradual increase in distance until I have the confidence to run a half marathon.

But I'm thinking that 4 weeks isn't really enough time to prepare for a half marathon, so will have to look into events later on in the year.
Garmin watches are on the whole very good. but recently they have tried adding lots of new, exciting metrics which just miss the mark. But the core GPS functionality is good.

4 Weeks is not an ideal amount of time to prepare for a HM, especially if at the min you are maxing out at 5k. You would ideally want to hit 9-10 miles before hand and would want to do that 2 weeks out from your race, so you would have to add a lot of mileage each week. You might get away with it but I would wait, aim for something 8-12 weeks out and prepare properly

MC Bodge

29,632 posts

204 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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Scabutz said:
Garmin watches are on the whole very good. but recently they have tried adding lots of new, exciting metrics which just miss the mark. But the core GPS functionality is good.

4 Weeks is not an ideal amount of time to prepare for a HM, especially if at the min you are maxing out at 5k. You would ideally want to hit 9-10 miles before hand and would want to do that 2 weeks out from your race, so you would have to add a lot of mileage each week. You might get away with it but I would wait, aim for something 8-12 weeks out and prepare properly
Agreed. Don't up the mileage too quickly.

Only when you have built up the mileage, work on your speed too. You need to know what it feels like to run very hard for 30s/1min/2min/5min etc. When you get used to running hard and pushing yourself you will get faster.

Concentrate on running form too. Try not to be a hard stepping plodder. I see quite a lot of people who are limiting their speed and efficiency (and stressing their joints) with a very heavy, slow, straight legged, heel landing in front in them, stride.

Practice running up hills. This can help with running form and power. Short repetitions

Edited by MC Bodge on Tuesday 10th September 09:58

z4RRSchris

12,517 posts

208 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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I did a half earlier in the year, my training was the below. I haven't run at all in about 5 years before this. I got a garmin watch which helped me mentally count down the KMs and keep some kind of pace.

dec 21st - 5km. 27.24
jan 6th - 4km - 22.25
jan 26th - 5km 23.30
feb 10th - 10km - 60mins ish
feb 14th - 7.7km - 42.03
feb 18th - 5km - 24.50
march 3rd - 14km - 100mins
may 19 - hackney Half - 1.55.48

In hindsight i should have done more training. i glued myself to one of those chaps with a 1.50pace flag on thinking if i dropped back i would have a bit of buffer. the last 4km was fking painful.


Smitters

4,415 posts

186 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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Cardiff is a massive crowded race, so you will absolutely be surrounded by people and disrupted if you're in the two hour gang. However, this can work to your advantage as this can keep you in place instead of flying off like a stabbed rat.

The FetchEveryone calculator is a bit more pessimistic than most, and probably a bit more accurate for it. Men have a bigger ego than women and this leads to a fast start, hurty legs and a a pace-drop in miles 11-13. In Cardiff this will bite you as there's a long drag and two short sharp hills to get over in the second half. With all calculators, the're much more accurate at close distances, i.e. a 5k time is a poor predictor for a marathon time, more able to give an indicator of your capacity with the correct training. With your ten mile time, I'd say you've got a 1.57 in you if you have a brilliant day and a sub 2 on an average day. You'll be getting a pb whatever.

https://www.fetcheveryone.com/training-calculators...

The bottom line is, go off steady, enjoy the atmosphere, read the backs of people's vests and try not to get dust in your eyes (sunglasses/rain help here). Build into it, stick to your pacing. If you get ahead/fall behind, don't try and rectify it in the next mile, unless you're in mile 12.

Tiggsy

10,261 posts

281 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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I did my first half a couple of weeks ago - Severn Bridge.

Target was sub 2 as it was a crazy hot day but got 1.46 ish in the end with the crowd/group pulling you along.

For reference I run a 20m 5K, 45m 10K.....so you can see I slow over distance (mainly due to being heavy 16 stone) my 50K is 5.30 (which I just did for a laugh!)

SamR380

737 posts

149 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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If they have pacers running with flags try to stick with a 1:50.

Most importantly, take it easy the week before. A couple of 5Ks at most.

MC Bodge

29,632 posts

204 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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Tiggsy said:
For reference I run a 20m 5K, 45m 10K.....so you can see I slow over distance (mainly due to being heavy 16 stone) my 50K is 5.30 (which I just did for a laugh!)
You are quite quick over 5K, and do appear to slow a lot over distance. Is your weight due to great height?

JimmyConwayNW

3,632 posts

154 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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RizzoTheRat said:
I dunno what Garmin base their predictions on, but it has no link to reality, mine reckons I should be able to do 5k over 2 minutes faster than my parkrun PB laugh
Its got me down as being a 3 hour marathon runner and 18 min 5ker laugh Maybe if I take a bike

Scabutz

8,834 posts

109 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
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MC Bodge said:
Tiggsy said:
For reference I run a 20m 5K, 45m 10K.....so you can see I slow over distance (mainly due to being heavy 16 stone) my 50K is 5.30 (which I just did for a laugh!)
You are quite quick over 5K, and do appear to slow a lot over distance. Is your weight due to great height?
If you can run a 20m 5K then I dont think weight is what is slowing you down over distance. Its your endurance or speed endurance.

MC Bodge

29,632 posts

204 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Scabutz said:
If you can run a 20m 5K then I dont think weight is what is slowing you down over distance. Its your endurance or speed endurance.
It so presumably a lack of endurance training.

Tiggsy

10,261 posts

281 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
MC Bodge said:
Scabutz said:
If you can run a 20m 5K then I dont think weight is what is slowing you down over distance. Its your endurance or speed endurance.
It so presumably a lack of endurance training.
It's a bit of everything - I'm 6ft6 and 16 stone so far from a distance runners build. The further I go the greater the pounding my body has to deal with!

But it is also just training - I only ever did the odd park run till this year when I started doing some 10k runs...then got into OCR running and that involves some bigger distances that hit my legs hard....so I upped my mileage to build endurance.

I have some big chunks to knock off my longer distances but I'm always going slow over time greater than a lighter runner.

I want to finish the year with a sub 20m 5K and a sub 45m 10k - right now I'm about 10 secs off both. Next year a half at under 1.40 and a 50K at under 5 hrs would be good. But the running is just a means to get in shapre for OCR as thats the main aim. Off to Scotland on Friday to race in the Spartan Beast. Only 20k but with some mental hills and obstacles chucked in.

Ynox

1,754 posts

208 months

Friday 13th September 2019
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Smitters said:
Cardiff is a massive crowded race, so you will absolutely be surrounded by people and disrupted if you're in the two hour gang. However, this can work to your advantage as this can keep you in place instead of flying off like a stabbed rat.

The FetchEveryone calculator is a bit more pessimistic than most, and probably a bit more accurate for it. Men have a bigger ego than women and this leads to a fast start, hurty legs and a a pace-drop in miles 11-13. In Cardiff this will bite you as there's a long drag and two short sharp hills to get over in the second half. With all calculators, the're much more accurate at close distances, i.e. a 5k time is a poor predictor for a marathon time, more able to give an indicator of your capacity with the correct training. With your ten mile time, I'd say you've got a 1.57 in you if you have a brilliant day and a sub 2 on an average day. You'll be getting a pb whatever.

https://www.fetcheveryone.com/training-calculators...

The bottom line is, go off steady, enjoy the atmosphere, read the backs of people's vests and try not to get dust in your eyes (sunglasses/rain help here). Build into it, stick to your pacing. If you get ahead/fall behind, don't try and rectify it in the next mile, unless you're in mile 12.
+1 for this. I screwed myself last year at Cardiff half through going too quick initially. Around Rath Park I hit the wall and my splits slowed significantly. There’s a couple of pinch points, around the bay being the worst for this.

Entering it again this year. Did a training half marathon last sat along the Thames which was 2h 20. Not sure i will do a sub 2 this year but I’ve gor a race 2 weeks later in Windsor to give it a go too.