C- 19 Why 80%?
Discussion
As I understand it the average person infects something between 2 and 3 other people. This is based on the assumption that almost none of the people that the infectious person comes into contact with have built immunity from having already been infected.
Over time as more and more people become immune the number of people an infectious person will transmit the virus to will come down. For example if 50% of the population are immune then the infectious person will, on average, only transmit to 1.5 other people (assuming the initial rate of infection was 3).
Eventually the number of transmissions per infected person will reduce to less than one. At this point the virus will die out as it is no longer capable of sustaining itself.
That point is when between 60 and 80% of the population have built immunity. The percentage varies depending on that the initial rate of infection is, ie it would be 60% for a rate of 2 and 80% for a rate of 3.
Over time as more and more people become immune the number of people an infectious person will transmit the virus to will come down. For example if 50% of the population are immune then the infectious person will, on average, only transmit to 1.5 other people (assuming the initial rate of infection was 3).
Eventually the number of transmissions per infected person will reduce to less than one. At this point the virus will die out as it is no longer capable of sustaining itself.
That point is when between 60 and 80% of the population have built immunity. The percentage varies depending on that the initial rate of infection is, ie it would be 60% for a rate of 2 and 80% for a rate of 3.
Because someone has to have it for you to get it.
As lots of population have got it and get over it, then those left who haven't had it are less likely to get it as its not getting spread around any more.
Virus spreads start slow, build speed, then slow as more people have been infected.
As lots of population have got it and get over it, then those left who haven't had it are less likely to get it as its not getting spread around any more.
Virus spreads start slow, build speed, then slow as more people have been infected.
Jamessd said:
As I understand it the average person infects something between 2 and 3 other people. This is based on the assumption that almost none of the people that the infectious person comes into contact with have built immunity from having already been infected.
Over time as more and more people become immune the number of people an infectious person will transmit the virus to will come down. For example if 50% of the population are immune then the infectious person will, on average, only transmit to 1.5 other people (assuming the initial rate of infection was 3).
Eventually the number of transmissions per infected person will reduce to less than one. At this point the virus will die out as it is no longer capable of sustaining itself.
That point is when between 60 and 80% of the population have built immunity. The percentage varies depending on that the initial rate of infection is, ie it would be 60% for a rate of 2 and 80% for a rate of 3.
Thank you for that.Over time as more and more people become immune the number of people an infectious person will transmit the virus to will come down. For example if 50% of the population are immune then the infectious person will, on average, only transmit to 1.5 other people (assuming the initial rate of infection was 3).
Eventually the number of transmissions per infected person will reduce to less than one. At this point the virus will die out as it is no longer capable of sustaining itself.
That point is when between 60 and 80% of the population have built immunity. The percentage varies depending on that the initial rate of infection is, ie it would be 60% for a rate of 2 and 80% for a rate of 3.
Do we have any idea how long it is likely to take to build up to that 60-80%? Is it months or years?
PositronicRay said:
Why is there a season for flu and colds?
Broadly speaking viruses tend to be able to proliferate more in colder environments due to the hardening of their surface membranes, I say broadly as this appears not to be the case quite so much for this particular coronavirus strain, although research is limited. Also more people tend to stay in during the winter months thereby reducing proximity.Gassing Station | Health Matters | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff