And then there were three (Champions League places)

[jammy_basturd]

So with Arsenal and Chelsea making hard work of getting out of their respective groups, Southampton and West Ham already out of the Europa League and Liverpool playing a second string in most European matches nowadays, it's looking increasing likely that Italy will overtake England in the UEFA coefficient rankings. The result of this would be that Italy gain a fourth place in the Champions League, at the expense of the Premier League, from the 2017/2018 season.

I don't think anyone can argue against the statement that English clubs have been pretty poor in Europe for several years now, so it's hardly undeserved.

It will be interesting to see what affect this would have on the Premier League. Teams like Liverpool and Tottenham are already finding it incredibly tough to finish in the top four, surely it'll be a once in a blue moon event that they'll finish in the top three to get into the CL. I guess it would also mean these clubs paying a premium for the top players as it will be even more unlikely that those players will get to play in the Champions League.

It'll also be interesting to see if there is one regular club that drops out of the top three (Arsenal I'm looking at you), or whether the traditional top four will rotate out of the CL...

[uk66fastback]

Is this really going to happen? I know there is some convoluted mathematical method for working it all out that I did see on the BBC site a few weeks ago ... And I know the English clubs haven't been doing well. I didn't realise before I read the article that Europa League performances were lumped in and that affected the CL places ...

Four into three doesn't quite go. the big four might be the big three if they're not careful, and it's always the same club missing out. If we were to lose it, is there a minimum term the incoming nation is assured of the extra spot?

[jammy_basturd]

Yup, the coefficients won't officially be updated until next summer I believe, but it's not impossible to work out what they'll be, so I imagine someone will do the maths after the group stages.

Even more of a blow for us English is that the total points we accumulate then gets divided by the amount of teams we have in both competitions. So Southampton and West Ham both bowing out early means they contributed little to our total points, but bring out average down. Italy have less teams in both competitions, so their average is likely to be higher.

Lastly, the coefficient is based on 5 (I think) previous years, so I believe qualification for the 2018/2019 season will not take into account Chelsea's CL win, further losing us a chunk of points.

As it stands, from results a couple of weeks ago, Italy were just two points behind us. Luckily Roma have lost tonight, as well as both our English clubs, so I don't think much has changed tonight, but it gives the Italian clubs a chance again tomorrow to close that gap.

I'd be gutted if my club (Liverpool) eventually claw their way back into the top four over the next season or two, only for it to be worthless due to us losing a CL spot!

To answer your other question, since 2001/2002 UEFA have awarded CL places based on the coefficient table. Only the top three countries in the table get four places.

[uk66fastback]

But once a different country gets into that top three do they get say, three years there or is it recalculated every year?

So if England missed out, could they conceivably get back in t he very next year is what I am asking, should the clubs have a decent season in Europe.

The smaller English clubs in Europe will only never give the Europa League passing interest, they want a top four spot. Effective ly taking away one of those spots could prove a nightmare for the chasing pack ... The pot just gets smaller. As long as it's Utd finishing fourth every year I'll be fine!