Has Scientific Innovation Slowed Down?
Discussion
Was pondering this the other day. In the last century we have had some of the most exciting developments in history which have had a profound effect on the way we live our lives as human beings. From Einstein's theory of relativity, through to things like the Airplane, Radio, TV from anti-biotics to the Personal Computer and the internet. You could arguably say that the 20th century has seen some of the greatest advances of the human age.
However it seems to be that we have peaked and the last 20 or so years has quite frankly been a bit of a let down in comparison. Oh I am sure their are fine breakthroughs being made in nearly all the scientific and technological fields but IMO their hasn't been anything on a revolutionary\life changing scale for quite some time.
Have we peaked? Have we already discovered most of the basics so anything we do from now one isn't as groundbreaking? Are we just in a lull or are their groundbreaking developments occurring even now as we speak that I'm blissfully unaware of? What could be the next big breakthrough that will kickstart another step change in the way we live our lives?
Please feel free to discuss.
However it seems to be that we have peaked and the last 20 or so years has quite frankly been a bit of a let down in comparison. Oh I am sure their are fine breakthroughs being made in nearly all the scientific and technological fields but IMO their hasn't been anything on a revolutionary\life changing scale for quite some time.
Have we peaked? Have we already discovered most of the basics so anything we do from now one isn't as groundbreaking? Are we just in a lull or are their groundbreaking developments occurring even now as we speak that I'm blissfully unaware of? What could be the next big breakthrough that will kickstart another step change in the way we live our lives?
Please feel free to discuss.
Guvernator said:
Are we just in a lull or are their groundbreaking developments occurring even now as we speak that I'm blissfully unaware of?
What have you done to make yourself aware?Are you interested in genuine scientific discoveries?
Or are you more interested in things that affect how we live our lives?
There's plenty of new science being done everyday. But it doesn't change your life everyday. But one day it will.
How about this: What % of cotton plants (globally) do you think are Genetically Modified?
I think there's plenty happening but you've just not made yourself aware.
We are not in any major competition i.e world wide conflict/space race/etc. These are the times when we excel as these are the times when money is being spent on research and development to push us further than our enemies/opposition/whatever.
Put bluntly, yes we are developing but not in the upfront highly visible ways that we have in the past.
Put bluntly, yes we are developing but not in the upfront highly visible ways that we have in the past.
That's the other thing, are innovations actually being held back due to commercial interests? Like it or not alongside our technological progress we have also seen the progress of capitalism which means that now more than any other time in our history, scientific and technological progress is controlled by those who are willing to pay for it. Worse still I think this also includes whether it will step on the toes of existing sources of revenue.
I truly believe for instance that if it weren't for the massive power monopoly held by the fuel and energy companies we would be a lot further along in our race to find alternative forms of clean renewable energy.
I truly believe for instance that if it weren't for the massive power monopoly held by the fuel and energy companies we would be a lot further along in our race to find alternative forms of clean renewable energy.
If anything, it's speeded up.
However, a lot of the breakthroughs are in very esoteric areas that you or don't notice on an everyday basis but which will, almost definitely, impact on our lives in the future.
The strides being made in medicine, pharmaceuticals and computer technology are astounding.
However, a lot of the breakthroughs are in very esoteric areas that you or don't notice on an everyday basis but which will, almost definitely, impact on our lives in the future.
The strides being made in medicine, pharmaceuticals and computer technology are astounding.
Guvernator said:
That's the other thing, are innovations actually being held back due to commercial interests? Like it or not alongside our technological progress we have also seen the progress of capitalism which means that now more than any other time in our history, scientific and technological progress is controlled by those who are willing to pay for it. Worse still I think this also includes whether it will step on the toes of existing sources of revenue.
I think the opposite. Don't you think that if technology can have a commercial application then great strides are being made? Look at what a phone can do these days! Plenty of work in computer tech.Similar, biotechnology. If you can make crops grow where they didn't before then there will be a huge demand for that.
I do accept, though, that the kinds of developments which are privately funded are those which are most likely to have a shorter pay back period - i.e. they'll be 'relatively simple' so they can be commercialised. So we still need people (Governments) to fund the non-commercial stuff, or things with a longer pay back period which private equity would be less likely to fund.
I realise that of course their are innovations and advances going on all the time but I keep hearing the same things, "esoteric" and may "change our life in the future". It just seems that we've moved away from practical innovations to concentrate on theoretical studies.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
Guvernator said:
I realise that of course their are innovations and advances going on all the time but I keep hearing the same things, "esoteric" and may "change our life in the future". It just seems that we've moved away from practical innovations to concentrate on theoretical studies.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
Everything was theoretical once. Farady himself wasn't sure what significance his discoveries concerning electricity would have for the future.Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
The really life changing discoveries that will affect our lives and those of our grandchildren have probably already been made - we just don't know what they are yet.
(My bet is on graphene being a game changer).
Eric Mc said:
If anything, it's speeded up.
However, a lot of the breakthroughs are in very esoteric areas that you or don't notice on an everyday basis but which will, almost definitely, impact on our lives in the future.
The strides being made in medicine, pharmaceuticals and computer technology are astounding.
Yes, with a greater population, greater access to education and the ever increasing processing power supplied by computing, the time between scientific "breakthroughs" is falling not rising.However, a lot of the breakthroughs are in very esoteric areas that you or don't notice on an everyday basis but which will, almost definitely, impact on our lives in the future.
The strides being made in medicine, pharmaceuticals and computer technology are astounding.
Guvernator said:
What could be the next big breakthrough that will kickstart another step change in the way we live our lives?
Two obvious ones are the understanding of consciousness and the ability to create life. Some would say we are close to unlocking both of these, others would say we are as far as we've ever been 
Either will have a profound effect on the human race.I tend to agree as over time you will find all the 'low-hanging fruit' has been picked, so radical developments are fewer and fewer, compared with incremental improvements.
This question popped up recently and I can't think of any major break-through that has astounded me or had a life affecting impact on myself or globally.
Regarding genetically engineered crops - I think I might be missing something. - Plants have been selectively bred for generations to achieve desirable attributes. Maybe I don't fully grasp it, but I thought genetically engineering plants means you do effectively the same thing on a shorter timescale? - why is this ground breaking?
This question popped up recently and I can't think of any major break-through that has astounded me or had a life affecting impact on myself or globally.
Regarding genetically engineered crops - I think I might be missing something. - Plants have been selectively bred for generations to achieve desirable attributes. Maybe I don't fully grasp it, but I thought genetically engineering plants means you do effectively the same thing on a shorter timescale? - why is this ground breaking?
Brother D said:
Regarding genetically engineered crops - I think I might be missing something. - Plants have been selectively bred for generations to achieve desirable attributes. Maybe I don't fully grasp it, but I thought genetically engineering plants means you do effectively the same thing on a shorter timescale? - why is this ground breaking?
You can do things artificially that would never happen in nature, like put bacterial genes into plant genomes. I'm a firm believer in GM and regard its antagonists as ill-educated or misguided Luddites, and the media doesn't help. Indeed the 'emtpy pots' can actively hinder technological development.Simpo Two said:
Brother D said:
Regarding genetically engineered crops - I think I might be missing something. - Plants have been selectively bred for generations to achieve desirable attributes. Maybe I don't fully grasp it, but I thought genetically engineering plants means you do effectively the same thing on a shorter timescale? - why is this ground breaking?
You can do things artificially that would never happen in nature, like put bacterial genes into plant genomes. I'm a firm believer in GM and regard its antagonists as ill-educated or misguided Luddites, and the media doesn't help. Indeed the 'emtpy pots' can actively hinder technological development.Brother D said:
Ah ok that's interesting, (I'm all for genetic manipulation) but with regards crops, is it really ground-breaking? Yeilds have been constantly improving over time since the 1920's, but there has been no giant leap in production, just incremental improvements, which I think is what the OP was getting at.
Incorrect. Google The Green Revolution. 
That's a 5 fold increase in 50 years. Pretty damn impressive. Scientists think that GMO crops could do the same.
The discovery rate is increasing all the time, you just need to know where to look. Famous science fiction writer William Gibson said "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed", and he was right.
Look at bioengineering. In the last two years we saw the first lab grown organ be produced and implanted. It was a windpipe, one of the simplest structures, but it was a proof of concept. Scientists are already pushing towards more complicated structures, and it is effectively a matter of time before rejection proof major organs like lungs or livers can be manufactured.
Or what about Graphene? The possibilities of that are so varied that nobody knows where to start.
Space Science? We'll see the first sub-orbital pleasure trips before the end of the year. That's something I never thought I'd see in my lifetime. People are realistically conceiving of asteroid mining. Mining an asteroid. Do you remember how silly the film "Armageddon" seemed ten years ago?
We're only now reaping the benefits of the computer revolution. Processing power means that things we thought were completely impossible even a couple of years ago are utterly routine due to the amount of computing horsepower available. The Human Genome project cost $2.7bn for one person. The same job can now be done for $5,000 solely because of increased computer speed.
davepoth said:
Incorrect. Google The Green Revolution.
That's a 5 fold increase in 50 years. Pretty damn impressive. Scientists think that GMO crops could do the same.
The discovery rate is increasing all the time, you just need to know where to look. Famous science fiction writer William Gibson said "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed", and he was right.
Look at bioengineering. In the last two years we saw the first lab grown organ be produced and implanted. It was a windpipe, one of the simplest structures, but it was a proof of concept. Scientists are already pushing towards more complicated structures, and it is effectively a matter of time before rejection proof major organs like lungs or livers can be manufactured.
Or what about Graphene? The possibilities of that are so varied that nobody knows where to start.
Space Science? We'll see the first sub-orbital pleasure trips before the end of the year. That's something I never thought I'd see in my lifetime. People are realistically conceiving of asteroid mining. Mining an asteroid. Do you remember how silly the film "Armageddon" seemed ten years ago?
We're only now reaping the benefits of the computer revolution. Processing power means that things we thought were completely impossible even a couple of years ago are utterly routine due to the amount of computing horsepower available. The Human Genome project cost $2.7bn for one person. The same job can now be done for $5,000 solely because of increased computer speed.
That chart is a measure of yields in developing countries, which you would expect to increase over time anyway with the introduction of advanced farming techniques, and this improvement is measured over 50 years? I just don't think that can be classed alongside the invention of the steam-engines, transistors, space travel etc. Back to the OP "has scientific Innovation Slowed Down" - Your graph appears to the casual observer to show the yeilds plateu-ing towards more recent years which kind of backs up his hypothesis. That's a 5 fold increase in 50 years. Pretty damn impressive. Scientists think that GMO crops could do the same.
The discovery rate is increasing all the time, you just need to know where to look. Famous science fiction writer William Gibson said "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed", and he was right.
Look at bioengineering. In the last two years we saw the first lab grown organ be produced and implanted. It was a windpipe, one of the simplest structures, but it was a proof of concept. Scientists are already pushing towards more complicated structures, and it is effectively a matter of time before rejection proof major organs like lungs or livers can be manufactured.
Or what about Graphene? The possibilities of that are so varied that nobody knows where to start.
Space Science? We'll see the first sub-orbital pleasure trips before the end of the year. That's something I never thought I'd see in my lifetime. People are realistically conceiving of asteroid mining. Mining an asteroid. Do you remember how silly the film "Armageddon" seemed ten years ago?
We're only now reaping the benefits of the computer revolution. Processing power means that things we thought were completely impossible even a couple of years ago are utterly routine due to the amount of computing horsepower available. The Human Genome project cost $2.7bn for one person. The same job can now be done for $5,000 solely because of increased computer speed.
Bio-engineering - yes I think you have a point some of that stuff is ground-breaking.
Graphene - exciting, we'll have to wait and see on the impact of that, but so far I've not read any ground breaking uses. - Batteries? So we improve the performance of energy storage.
Space - pretty sure everyone on the 60's thought they would be going for a jaunt into space - in this area we seem to be re-doing things we did nearly 50 years ago.
Computing - Moors law, ok so exponential improvement, but what significant has happened since the invention of the web? Possibly man in the street would say facebook was ground breaking, but you had social media long before FB.
So I'll have to respectfully slightly disagree, and side with the OP that the Rate of ground breaking scientific innovation in my opinion has slowed.
I just think new science is less visible than it used to be. Things like LHC are buried in a mountain but are doing amazing things.
Junior went to see the JET fusion reactor today, it works and in 40 secs can generate enough power to provide 24 hours worth of electricity to a city the size of Oxford. A full working and generating fusion reactor is soon to be built.
So its stuff you can't see, but its there being worked on day in, day out
Junior went to see the JET fusion reactor today, it works and in 40 secs can generate enough power to provide 24 hours worth of electricity to a city the size of Oxford. A full working and generating fusion reactor is soon to be built.
So its stuff you can't see, but its there being worked on day in, day out
davepoth said:
We're only now reaping the benefits of the computer revolution. Processing power means that things we thought were completely impossible even a couple of years ago are utterly routine due to the amount of computing horsepower available. The Human Genome project cost $2.7bn for one person. The same job can now be done for $5,000 solely because of increased computer speed.
There is a possible downside.....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singul...
Guvernator said:
I realise that of course their are innovations and advances going on all the time but I keep hearing the same things, "esoteric" and may "change our life in the future". It just seems that we've moved away from practical innovations to concentrate on theoretical studies.
Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
I think you are viewing past breakthroughs with a kind of hindsight.Again I realise that we make many many small but significant breakthroughs but these are mostly evolutions of things that we already knew and are building on.
Let me try to put it this way, the development of the internet is probably the last major breakthrough I can think of which has profoundly effected the way we as humans live our lives. The way we do business, gather information, socialise, communicate has all changed massively due to this breakthrough. The other things I've mentioned before have also had this effect.
Yes the advances in medicine may help quite a few people but they haven't changed the way millions of people live their lives, yes something like the Haldron Collider is VERY interesting but how has it actually changed our lives?
Perhaps I am being too impatient? Perhaps discoveries we are making now will radically change our lives in the next 10-20 years, I'm sure people didn't think much of Einstein's theory when he first published it either. Still I don't think we have done anything hugely significant on the same scale as some of the things I've mentioned for quite some time.
I think\hope the next big breakthrough we make will be in energy as I think it has the biggest potential to effect how we live and take us a new direction.
Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
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