Modern Cars – Economic/Expected Life

[Bowler]

Random thoughts whilst driving to work this morning, in my ageing V6 Mondeo (130k on it)….

Has anyone any ideas or thoughts about the anticipated design life, or probably more accurately the economic design life, of modern cars?

What I am think of is something along the lines of when a global car manufacturer decides to design a new middle of the range model to be mass-produced for the average buyer (say a Mondeo/Astra/Etc) there are probably some minimum criteria that are defined at the beginning and expected useful life must be one of them, especially when different countries expect differing periods.

Every mechanical and electrical component has an design life, based on calculations which, when brought into an assembly, will give a calculated life. So, given the that normal consumables are replaced in line with defined frequencies, there must be an assumed expectation that X% of all new cars will “last” Y miles/years.

I suppose that ultimately everything is replaceable, so theoretically the life is unlimited, but we all know that there comes a point when it simply becomes uneconomic to simply keep pouring money into maintenance. Surely there is a point that is used in the design process as the “expected life”

For some reason, I’m guessing that this figure is around 200k miles and about 12 to 15 years…..

So, has anyone any idea about the manufacturer's criteria expectation is?

[patmahe]

I think modern cars will begin to fail sooner than their predecessors did because of technology. Electronic fuel management systems designed to eek out every mile out of every gallon of petrol, electronic sensors all over cars which though no doubt cheap to make, are very expensive to buy.

This means the point of obselescence will be reached far sooner. But take a simple basic car of even 10 years ago, very little electronics and a simple suck, squeeze, bang, blow engine which if properly maintained (which is relatively cheap to do) will run a long time.

My own personal beliefs, once a car gets to about 160,000 miles and over 15 years old I start to question whether it has long left. I could be completely wrong. My current daily driver is a 12 year old Corolla with 111,000 miles up, I'll probably just run it until it stops as its a great workhorse, so I'll let you know at that stage.

[pimping]

really interesting topic and one i have wondered about many times myself. the psychological barrier used to be 100,000 for myself but now i find myself re-assessing that as my tastes get more dawdy and cheaper as i get older and statue means less.

now i'd look at anything up to about 150,000 though i am aware with age it will get slacker and won't feel quite as right.

but i keep hearing about these super high mileage vehicles all the time so they just keep running.

[kambites]

Since whether a car is economically repairable depends, ultimately, on what happens to new car prices as the old one is approaching the end of its life, it's rather hard to say how long today's new cars will last.

[wildcat45]

Electronics could potenti8ally last for ever. I guess its the environment they are in - a car not being a good one.

I have two digital watches one 32 years old one 27 - still going strong. A clock radio that I have owned since I was about 10 - so its 30 years old. A calculator that my Dad owned and got when I was about 5 still does sums like it did back then.

All perfect working order.

I am wondering that as technology progresses, what is hi-tech today may well be failry low tech and easy to fix by a new DIY Geek/mechanic generation. People you are kids now, but who know no other world than one with computers in it. An interest in cars, tuning etc, cheap apps available for PCs etc.

At the moment, remapping repairing ECUs is expensive.

Maintaining a state of the art car from today in 2025 may just be like some geek running a Commodore 64 now.

Classic cars will exist in future I am sure. Today's XKR - in a couple of decades could be at a rally or show alongside a TT or Focus RS.

[Bowler]

The way I see things is that here in the UK, we are driven by a combination of a subliminal attitude and peer pressure of “must have the best/newest” and therefore we dispose of cars way before the end of their usable life.

I work for a French company and my perception of some of my French colleagues is that they think nothing of running cars to a point that is way beyond the norm in the UK (250,000kms). Additionally, my perception of cars in the US, is that they think nothing of running cars to 250k miles.

Since I got a toy for the weekends and nice days, I’ve been less bothered about having a new car, so that despite the fact that my Mondy is “only” 7 years old and has a 130k on it, I intend to see if I can get it to 200k (I reckon another 3½ to 4 years for this). It’s currently running as sweet as a nut :touches wood:

Given that most manufacturers are designing cars for a global market and differing climatic conditions, I’m fairly sure that with reasonable routine maintenance being carried out then I should reach the “magic” 200k mark without too many problems.

Ultimately one of the major factors in the ability for the car to do this, will be the bodywork, but my view is that despite the fact that I have to spend a few hundred each year on it for failures, it still costs me less each year than my wife’s 2 year old Yaris is depreciating at…

Interestingly, the car is still on it’s factory fitted exhaust, which I find amazing.

[WOO5IE]

Its probably not the mechanicals that will fail or cause the car to be uneconomical to repair but all the modernadd ons like ABS air bags etc which are very expensive.

I have heard of people disconnecting air bag warning lights to a car Moted .

Would you pay £1000 for a 11 year old car to replace an air bag.

Go on a few years and what about replacing a set of batteries on electric cars.

[anonymous-user]

Bowler said:

So, has anyone any idea about the manufacturer's criteria expectation is?

Any decent manufacturer will expect 10 years or 150,000 miles as the starting point. Obviously there's no "sudden death" age/mileage but bear in mind that a modern car in USA must as a minimum meet the clean air act standard and stay within full emissions compliance for 10 years/100,000 miles without any adjustment. Few cars these days get scrapped due to engine failure - but cars are cheap and repairs are expensive.

"Section 206(a) of the Clean Air Act. Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that the vehicle or engine can meet the emission standard for a specified period. Today, for example, passenger cars must meet emission standards for 10 years or for 100,000 miles, which ever occurs first."

[Kozy]

It wasn't long ago Ford were producing cars with odometers that only went up to 99,999 miles.

They had faith in their product then!

[Original Poster]

Kozy said:

It wasn't long ago Ford were producing cars with odometers that only went up to 99,999 miles.

They had faith in their product then!

Sounds about right!

[anonymous-user]

Kozy said:

It wasn't long ago Ford were producing cars with odometers that only went up to 99,999 miles.

They had faith in their product then!

Yep, & plenty of them went around the clock

[Chaffs]

Not sure which manufacturer it is but someone is advertising a lifetime warranty for their cars .. though the small print actually says up to 100,000 miles, which equates to about 8 and a bit years average mileage. I suppose the lifespan of a vehicle becomes less important as it becomes more recyclable, but I'm fairly certain that the energy required to actually produce it usually doesn't get included within the equation.

[rudecherub]

Dave_ST220 said:

Kozy said:

It wasn't long ago Ford were producing cars with odometers that only went up to 99,999 miles.

They had faith in their product then!

Yep, & plenty of them went around the clock

I'm not sure when the extra digit arrived, but most classic cars are just 99,999 odometers. Maybe in the 80's on German cars.

In a way I'm sure enthusiasts like to kid themselves it could be real low mileage rather than going around twice or more.

That said cars from that era, like an Essex v6 say would expect a rebuild at the 100k mark.

alternatively classic 80's metal like Gene Hunt's Quattro, will be hard to find with less than 100k + miles

I'm already coming around to the idea that the new generation of classics will see miles rise and rise on the odometer.

It maybe time to record the hours too.

For example a high mileage motorway cruiser is going to be a better bet than a low mileage city car.

[excel monkey]

Bowler said:

I work for a French company and my perception of some of my French colleagues is that they think nothing of running cars to a point that is way beyond the norm in the UK (250,000kms). Additionally, my perception of cars in the US, is that they think nothing of running cars to 250k miles.

Agree there is definitely less of a "keeping up appearances" mentality in France regarding cars, but there are other variables to consider such as climate, speed limits, and toughness of MOT (or equivalent).

Relative to us, Americans have lower speed limits, relaxed emissions rules (except CA), and bigger cars with bigger engines. In the southern states, the lack of salt on the roads in winter also helps.

I think 150k is the expected UEL for a petrol repmobile these days. Maybe less for a modern diesel with DPF, EGR and DMF all to go wrong.

[pimping]

remember buying an old nissan sunny that had lived most of its life by the sea. paid pennies for it so it did't matter and it came with a years mot but the rust on it was seriously epic.