2019 testing, the stats actually DO mean quite a lot so far

[TheDeuce]

In previous years I have mostly been in the 'test day stats are pointless' camp. Because we simply don't know all the variables (mode/fuel level/aero etc) to really make a fair comparison between cars.

But this year... On the morning of day 1, most teams had already equalled or beaten their full race fastest lap pace from last years Barcelona GP. So we know that this years grid is without doubt, faster - in spite of the new Aero regs. It's almost unthinkable for so many teams to exceed full race pace so early on in testing.

We also know that reliability, across the field, is almost flawless so far (except for Williams..). Compared to last year, reliability in the lower teams seams transformed.

I think the biggest thing I feel I 'know' even at this early stage, is that this season, the grid will be tighter than it has been for so many years. I make that conclusion based largely on the fact that the Honda engine seems far more competitive (and is now thankfully in the Red Bull), and also the Renault engine has certainly proved more reliable in practice than it did in most races last year (by laps run).

So for once, I'm really enjoying pre season testing, and feel pretty hyped for the season to come.

[The Moose]

Isn’t a lot of that not hugely relevant because we don’t know what each team are running? Surely it’s not until Q3 in Oz that we really find out?

[TheDeuce]

The Moose said:

Isn’t a lot of that not hugely relevant because we don’t know what each team are running? Surely it’s not until Q3 in Oz that we really find out?

It's not relevant when it comes to who will likely win most races. But there is more to the sport than that.

It's very relevant that the cars have shown strong signs of improved overall performance in spite of the reduced aero. It's relevant that reliability across the board (Williams excepted for now) has improved so much - that tells us the season is less likely to feature exciting spectacles like Ricciardo battling through a tough race only to fall flat with an engine failure.

I agree test stats won't help us pick a winner. But they do a lot to show what potential the upcoming season has.

[HustleRussell]

TheDeuce said:

On the morning of day 1, most teams had already equalled or beaten their full race fastest lap pace from last years Barcelona GP. So we know that this years grid is without doubt, faster - in spite of the new Aero regs.

This season, the grid will be tighter than it has been for so many years. I make that conclusion based largely on the fact that the Honda engine seems far more competitive (and is now thankfully in the Red Bull), and also the Renault engine has certainly proved more reliable in practice than it did in most races last year (by laps run).

I’m enjoying testing too, and I’m hyped for the season to come as well.

However, I don’t think we can say that either of the above are fact.

We know how slow race pace was compared to the ultimate pace in qualifying. I can’t remember but last year’s Spanish grand prix might have been a heavily managed race in terms of tyres and fuel. The fastest lap will probably have been set without the help of DRS. What we do know is that the circuit has gotten faster. Also we have no basis for comparison for the other 20 circuits on the calendar. Are the cars draggier on account of new aero and therefore slower at Monza? Is the increased weight of the cars going to make them slower around Monaco?

Secondly, there is no way of knowing what the spread is this season compared to last. With Williams taking pigeon steps it is not hard to imagine a situation where they are further adrift of the white hot three way battle at the front than they were last year.

I’ll give you reliability but this is to be expected with the ever increasing maturity of power unit regulations.

[kambites]

I think what you're missing is tyres - the grand prix on this circuit last year had three of the four hardest compounds; the teams in testing are allowed to use whatever compounds they want to. In order to call the cars "faster", the teams would have to be seeing times faster than last year's qualifying laps on the C3 tyre (or harder).

[StevieBee]

I remember the Prost team that had previously been nowhere rocking up at a pre-season test only to blitz the times leading everyone to think they'd made some meaty developments. Turned out it was a rocket-fuelled promo exercise to bag a sponsor.

Testing is interesting. But as mentioned, Q3 in Aus is when it will all come clear.

That said, I do sort of understand the OPs point. For me, the primary emerging factors so far are that McLaren have made significant improvements and the field is tighter than it's beed for a long while.

[DanielSan]

Is another testing thread needed?

[Mr Pointy]

Pirelli reckon the track surface is making a big difference: it had only just been resurfaced before last year's test:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/pirelli-new-tra...

[The Vambo]

DanielSan said:

Is another testing thread needed?

Yes. HTH

[TheDeuce]

When the comments about speed compared to race pace OR qualifying pace last years Barcelona GP were made, by myself, others and the F1 journo's, most of the cars were testing the harder compounds anyway, so I think it is real word comparable.

And it's no miracle really. Now a few years deep into the current era, the engines are evolved to a point where they can be both punchier and more reliable - easily enough to offset the fairly minor reduction in aero the new regs have forced.

The reason I think it's fairly obvious the field will be tighter though, is simple reliability. And most teams now are demonstrating the kind of reliability to expect to get to the end of a race barring any incidents. Think how many times in previous years an underdog just happened to get a winning strategy together, had a little luck and was making a decent shot at a podium, simply to burn out in a cloud of smoke 10 laps short. That combined with clearly good pace from previous non-contending teams, it's going to be a tighter season - I see no reason to suspect otherwise.

Also at the top end, with both Ferrari and Mercedes having no real budget cap, both teams are brushing up against the limit of what is possible. They will be close for the simple fact they've both gone as far as you can go before hitting the bricks walls of regulation and the tyres. We saw them both almost identical on many tracks last year, this year will be the same but tighter still - that's what you get when 2 teams both spend many hundreds of millions both trying to solve the same equation, no matter which route they take.