What will stop Mercedes?
Discussion
After a period of red bull dominance, along came Mercedes. But while red bull had a good run, Mercedes are now embarking on their sixth successive WCC and have had the best possible first 4 races towards that goal. As a team, they appear to have no weakness.
Next year will probably be the same. But then there is 2021.. cost caps come in, will that really stop them?
Part of me sees that their huge (realistically, unlimited) budget is a major factor. But also the mindset and quiet professionalism of Wolff and co is impressive. I also can't see how cost caps can be policed when a team has the backing of a mainstream auto maker that spends several million on R&D every day.
The status quo cannot last forever, it never does. But what will topple them? Is there still room enough in the sport for innovation to defeat regulation and get a surprise change in fortunes for another team? Is there another potentially stronger force that could be tempted to F1?
Discuss
Next year will probably be the same. But then there is 2021.. cost caps come in, will that really stop them?
Part of me sees that their huge (realistically, unlimited) budget is a major factor. But also the mindset and quiet professionalism of Wolff and co is impressive. I also can't see how cost caps can be policed when a team has the backing of a mainstream auto maker that spends several million on R&D every day.
The status quo cannot last forever, it never does. But what will topple them? Is there still room enough in the sport for innovation to defeat regulation and get a surprise change in fortunes for another team? Is there another potentially stronger force that could be tempted to F1?
Discuss
Cost caps arn’t IMHO the solution rather to bring the field together the regs need to structured in such a way that there is little point in spending unlimited money to win.
Remember Toyota turned up on F1 with an unlimited budget previously and managed to achieve very little, so just having the budget does’t guarantee success, if it did Ferrari should produce more results, more often.
In terms of spend Daimler have a group R&D budget of £168m per week... hiding a couple of hundred million somewhere for hidden race technology programme wouldn’t even register.
Budgetary wise only VW Group or Toyota could if they wished embark on a practically unlimited budget programme without implicating profitability.
Remember Toyota turned up on F1 with an unlimited budget previously and managed to achieve very little, so just having the budget does’t guarantee success, if it did Ferrari should produce more results, more often.
In terms of spend Daimler have a group R&D budget of £168m per week... hiding a couple of hundred million somewhere for hidden race technology programme wouldn’t even register.
Budgetary wise only VW Group or Toyota could if they wished embark on a practically unlimited budget programme without implicating profitability.
I think there's a few possibilities. Roughly in order of likelihood:
1) Ferrari sort out their procedural problems. They've had a competitive car for the last couple of seasons, they've just been unable to function well enough at the track to exploit it. I'm not sure Vettel is consistently good enough with these cars to lead them but it's possible LeClerc will be by next year.
2) Honda really come good in 20021, propelling Redbull right back to the front.
3) Someone finds a major loophole in the regs akin to the double diffuser and the FIA choose not to close it.
4) Hamilton decides to retire in the next few seasons. Realistically I think they'd have to pull in a young driver (Russel or Ocon I suppose?) and have Bottas lead the team; we know Bottas is very fast but he also seems to be rather fragile so I think it would only take a bit of bad luck at the start of such a season to hand the drivers' title to Ferrari if they've produced a decent car. However, I don't really see Hamilton retiring while he's winning so this one is a bit chicken and egg.
5) Wolff decides to step down. It's hard to know how much effect this would have on the team but it certainly wouldn't be good for them.
6) Mercedes pull out of the sport. Probably not going to happen while they're still winning.
1) Ferrari sort out their procedural problems. They've had a competitive car for the last couple of seasons, they've just been unable to function well enough at the track to exploit it. I'm not sure Vettel is consistently good enough with these cars to lead them but it's possible LeClerc will be by next year.
2) Honda really come good in 20021, propelling Redbull right back to the front.
3) Someone finds a major loophole in the regs akin to the double diffuser and the FIA choose not to close it.
4) Hamilton decides to retire in the next few seasons. Realistically I think they'd have to pull in a young driver (Russel or Ocon I suppose?) and have Bottas lead the team; we know Bottas is very fast but he also seems to be rather fragile so I think it would only take a bit of bad luck at the start of such a season to hand the drivers' title to Ferrari if they've produced a decent car. However, I don't really see Hamilton retiring while he's winning so this one is a bit chicken and egg.
5) Wolff decides to step down. It's hard to know how much effect this would have on the team but it certainly wouldn't be good for them.
6) Mercedes pull out of the sport. Probably not going to happen while they're still winning.
For me, getting the engine right from the very start of the hybrid era has been the catalyst to Mercedes success. With the resources available to them they've then just been able to quietly plug away at perfecting every other little detail.
Looking at them this year they're just going to be untouchable, every race they're bringing updates or track specific alterations to the car in order to maximize performance in a way I've never seen before. Yes, updates have always been a thing in F1 but if you follow the likes or Scarbs on Twitter it's always Mercedes who at every race so far have brought something different such as the serrated wing in Baku. They're literally so far ahead with their car, their strategy and the way the team is managed that they're able to focus on the tiniest of details specific to each track.
As others have said, I didn't like the dominance at first, even to the end of 2018 I was bored of it but this year it's just bloody impressive and a pleasure to watch a team at the absolute peak of performance.
I genuinely believe their dominance will continue for several years or even right until they decide they've had enough of F1 and leave.
Looking at them this year they're just going to be untouchable, every race they're bringing updates or track specific alterations to the car in order to maximize performance in a way I've never seen before. Yes, updates have always been a thing in F1 but if you follow the likes or Scarbs on Twitter it's always Mercedes who at every race so far have brought something different such as the serrated wing in Baku. They're literally so far ahead with their car, their strategy and the way the team is managed that they're able to focus on the tiniest of details specific to each track.
As others have said, I didn't like the dominance at first, even to the end of 2018 I was bored of it but this year it's just bloody impressive and a pleasure to watch a team at the absolute peak of performance.
I genuinely believe their dominance will continue for several years or even right until they decide they've had enough of F1 and leave.
Edited by bobbo89 on Tuesday 30th April 08:49
I could see Ferrari picking up an odd title, I think if they'd had this year's driver lineup they'd probably have won the constructor's championship last year because I genuinely believe they had the better car last year... but in the short-medium term I can't see them managing to develop the sort of culture and work-ethic that Mercedes seem to be thriving on so any success they do have is unlikely to turn into long-term dominance of the sort we're seeing from Mercedes at the moment.If anyone is going to take over the batten from Mercedes in the next five years, I think it's more likely to be Redbull than Ferrari.
I think Ferrari have the right car, but are just making more mistakes than Mercedes. As others have said, Mercedes are operating at an almost perfect level of excellence.
I also think that Max / RB will win a couple of races this year.
Four 1-2s is a truly incredible start to the year. I just can’t believe that it will continue like this.
The future cost cap will work. Exclusion from the championship, if caught cheating, will be sufficient deterrence. The money OEMs blow on R&D is irrelevant to F1. Its far more about lowering manufacturing costs, Focus Groups, cup-holders and irrelevant connected technology. Currently virtually every penny is being spent on EV technology and autonomous driving, so no synergy at all.
Playing in F1 is all part of their marketing budget and Liberty’s aim is to make F1 franchises tradeable. So I can see that Merc, Honda and Renault might become less interested but Ferrari will remain in it for the long term. Like top-level football teams, it will again become possible for wealthy individuals like Hass and Stroll to become serious players in F1.
I also think that Max / RB will win a couple of races this year.
Four 1-2s is a truly incredible start to the year. I just can’t believe that it will continue like this.
The future cost cap will work. Exclusion from the championship, if caught cheating, will be sufficient deterrence. The money OEMs blow on R&D is irrelevant to F1. Its far more about lowering manufacturing costs, Focus Groups, cup-holders and irrelevant connected technology. Currently virtually every penny is being spent on EV technology and autonomous driving, so no synergy at all.
Playing in F1 is all part of their marketing budget and Liberty’s aim is to make F1 franchises tradeable. So I can see that Merc, Honda and Renault might become less interested but Ferrari will remain in it for the long term. Like top-level football teams, it will again become possible for wealthy individuals like Hass and Stroll to become serious players in F1.
Sorry I really shouldn't laugh.Maybe a combination of some key people being poached and large-scale rule changes in 2021 will do it.
Not convinced Ferrari has the right senior management culture to replicate the success of Todt and Brawn, that Red Bull has the full tool kit or any of the other teams have the resource to topple Mercedes all by themselves.
Not convinced Ferrari has the right senior management culture to replicate the success of Todt and Brawn, that Red Bull has the full tool kit or any of the other teams have the resource to topple Mercedes all by themselves.
Dominant teams like Ferrari (Bridgestone sprint tyres) and Red Bull (blown diffusers) were stopped by rule changes aimed straight at what gave them an "advantage". With Mercedes it's not really one thing but the incremental gains of the whole package. The longer the rules stay the same the more likely it would be for someone to catch up as, if Mercedes are at 98% of potential and the next nearest is 95%, then Mercedes gains are going to be harder to find.
I don't think budget caps will make the slightest difference. With the complexity of corporate structures and the number of motorsport/automotive pies the top teams have their fingers in trying to police the cap will be a fools errand.
I don't think budget caps will make the slightest difference. With the complexity of corporate structures and the number of motorsport/automotive pies the top teams have their fingers in trying to police the cap will be a fools errand.
I'm reading Total Competition by Ross Brawn and Adam Parr at the moment and the word they use when describing how Mercedes was set up was 'completeness' - which is what people are describing above, a team has never been so well put together which such a good ethos across it in terms of the layers of strategy to win. As others have said, the likes of Renault and Toyota can and have thrown money at it but are no where near Mercedes, money is a necessity in Formula 1 but its not a guarantee of success.
coldel said:
I'm reading Total Competition by Ross Brawn and Adam Parr at the moment and the word they use when describing how Mercedes was set up was 'completeness' - which is what people are describing above, a team has never been so well put together which such a good ethos across it in terms of the layers of strategy to win. As others have said, the likes of Renault and Toyota can and have thrown money at it but are no where near Mercedes, money is a necessity in Formula 1 but its not a guarantee of success.
They are incredibly polished and just seem to do everything right, about as perfect of a team as you can imagine, they don't seem to have any weak links anywhere within their structure. They also have a cool, calm confidence about them but at the same time they never take anything for granted and never go into a race expecting to dominate in the way they do. I can imagine that even though they've had a perfect start to the season they'll still be critical of themselves and making improvements in every area they feel they can. IMO they also have one thing that other previously dominant teams such as Ferrari and Red Bull haven't and that is class.
Unless Ferrari sorts themselves out then nothing.
Red Bull has been better than expected. Perhaps in time, they will with Honda.
But it's looking very much like Mercedes again. At least Bottas has improved and the stubble seems to have given him extra speed.
Red Bull has been better than expected. Perhaps in time, they will with Honda.
But it's looking very much like Mercedes again. At least Bottas has improved and the stubble seems to have given him extra speed.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 30th April 11:07
There are a whole range of factors for their success but I honestly think it ultimately boils down to one thing - leadership.
I think Toto is highly impressive and is the cornerstone. He's thoroughly backed by the parent company (CEO practically always in the pits), is personally financially invested and, so far, has been well chaired by Niki L. He's also an unusual mix of the traditional competitive entrepreneur, talented corporate leader and ultimately, racer. Its difficult to see either the motorsport community or corporate world manufacturing someone with that blend (hence Ferrari's woe?)..
Assuming Daimler doesn't pull the plug then I suspect they may survive Hamilton (who really has now become utterly supreme) but I wouldn't be so sure they would survive Toto's departure.
I think Toto is highly impressive and is the cornerstone. He's thoroughly backed by the parent company (CEO practically always in the pits), is personally financially invested and, so far, has been well chaired by Niki L. He's also an unusual mix of the traditional competitive entrepreneur, talented corporate leader and ultimately, racer. Its difficult to see either the motorsport community or corporate world manufacturing someone with that blend (hence Ferrari's woe?)..
Assuming Daimler doesn't pull the plug then I suspect they may survive Hamilton (who really has now become utterly supreme) but I wouldn't be so sure they would survive Toto's departure.
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