End mileage for a modern car?
Discussion
carrying on from a conversation at work what kind of mileage will a average modern car do until it dies?
yes I know there are many many variables to this question. The conversation came up at work about the progression of cars and durability of them and the ever increasing longevity. This then turned to us wondering what an average new car will return miles wise before it dies.
One of the guys in the office has a 1998 VW golf, its got about 180,000 on the clock and will be changed apparently soon as impending repair costs will exceed the cost of the car. If you take that point of a cars life ( the point repairs cost more then the total value of a car ) a car from the mid 90's, lasting 14 years driven daily is pretty amazing I reckon.
So with nearly 15 years of progression since then, is it not possible that modern cars should easily see over double the mileage and age?
yes I know there are many many variables to this question. The conversation came up at work about the progression of cars and durability of them and the ever increasing longevity. This then turned to us wondering what an average new car will return miles wise before it dies.
One of the guys in the office has a 1998 VW golf, its got about 180,000 on the clock and will be changed apparently soon as impending repair costs will exceed the cost of the car. If you take that point of a cars life ( the point repairs cost more then the total value of a car ) a car from the mid 90's, lasting 14 years driven daily is pretty amazing I reckon.
So with nearly 15 years of progression since then, is it not possible that modern cars should easily see over double the mileage and age?
I reckon that, certainly in the case of modern diesels, their lifespan is now going down. Their outputs have gone up significantly, there are DMFs, DPFs and turbos. All of these (perhaps not the turbo) are known to be trouble when the car gets a bit older. I can't see a lot of these latest diesels making it past ten years old.
I've just got a new car - and it's diesel, twin turbo, goes like the clappers but come two years old it's going back and I'll get another - do I want to run something like that out of warranty as the third or fourth owner? Not a chance.
I've just got a new car - and it's diesel, twin turbo, goes like the clappers but come two years old it's going back and I'll get another - do I want to run something like that out of warranty as the third or fourth owner? Not a chance.
Totally variable. A friend at work has a turbo diesel hatchback from the lower end of the market and so far in 100 000 miles it's been through:
x2 Headgaskets
x2 Turbochargers
He states it has been fully maintained, although I don't wish to put the name of the manufacturer in the post as if his claim of FSH isn't accurate then it's unfair on the company who designed and put it together.
On the other hand, An associate of a friend runs a special courier service with an E39 530d. It only gets turned off for servicing and petrol. From what I understand it's so far covered 700 000 miles, and aside from a turbocharger replacement (which was likely down to user error) it's not missed a beat. Epic!
On a bit of a tangent, the most endurable run of the mill cars I think are:
190D 2.5 (5 Cylinder Turbo Diesel - N/A) - Ah yes the infamous 'Beirut Taxi', the engine is sometimes known as 'The Million Mile Engine'. Coupled to 190E build quality you have a car that goes on, and on, and on, and on.
E34 535i (M30 Big 6 Petrol) - BMW's most well built car coupled with an engine that has a bottom end carved from granite (and thus weighs more than the moon). E38 Ross was lent an E34 535i customer car (i.e. gets worked.. hard} from a BMW specialist. From what I remember they put it on a dyno and after that many miles, how much power do you think it had lost?
Nope you're wrong. It had lost almost none at all.
x2 Headgaskets
x2 Turbochargers
He states it has been fully maintained, although I don't wish to put the name of the manufacturer in the post as if his claim of FSH isn't accurate then it's unfair on the company who designed and put it together.
On the other hand, An associate of a friend runs a special courier service with an E39 530d. It only gets turned off for servicing and petrol. From what I understand it's so far covered 700 000 miles, and aside from a turbocharger replacement (which was likely down to user error) it's not missed a beat. Epic!
On a bit of a tangent, the most endurable run of the mill cars I think are:
190D 2.5 (5 Cylinder Turbo Diesel - N/A) - Ah yes the infamous 'Beirut Taxi', the engine is sometimes known as 'The Million Mile Engine'. Coupled to 190E build quality you have a car that goes on, and on, and on, and on.
E34 535i (M30 Big 6 Petrol) - BMW's most well built car coupled with an engine that has a bottom end carved from granite (and thus weighs more than the moon). E38 Ross was lent an E34 535i customer car (i.e. gets worked.. hard} from a BMW specialist. From what I remember they put it on a dyno and after that many miles, how much power do you think it had lost?
Nope you're wrong. It had lost almost none at all.
BeirutTaxi - are these "modern" cars you are on about, though? Stuff like Euro V compliant diesels? It's the stuff that makes these cars "green" that IMO is going to make them scrap in about six years.
If I wanted something that would do a trillion miles then, yes, an old 190 or ten year old 530 is going to be the weapon of choice.
If I wanted something that would do a trillion miles then, yes, an old 190 or ten year old 530 is going to be the weapon of choice.
the main sticking point we found ourselves going back to, is although modern engines are possible made now of materials that could last an extended duration, the moment one of those goes wrong the cost to replace will instantly exceed the the value of the car due to ever increasing complexity and electronics. Meaning it will always be a dealer/garage fix instead of diy.
This was one of my arguments as to why modern cars will not have the same life span as cars from the 90's and earlier.
This was one of my arguments as to why modern cars will not have the same life span as cars from the 90's and earlier.
BeirutTaxi said:
On the other hand, An associate of a friend runs a special courier service with an E39 530d. It only gets turned off for servicing and petrol. From what I understand it's so far covered 700 000 miles, and aside from a turbocharger replacement (which was likely down to user error) it's not missed a beat. Epic!
A 530D that's done 700k using petrol 
My 2006 A6 2.7tdi auto is currently on 152K.
Its going well and hasnt cost anything other than service in the last 12 months.
However the swirl flap wear is present,which doesnt affect running or mpg but in theory is a fault which could be an expensive repair.
Im getting bored(as we do)but if i have the staying power id like to go to 200k.
Its going well and hasnt cost anything other than service in the last 12 months.
However the swirl flap wear is present,which doesnt affect running or mpg but in theory is a fault which could be an expensive repair.
Im getting bored(as we do)but if i have the staying power id like to go to 200k.
dave0010 said:
carrying on from a conversation at work what kind of mileage will a average modern car do until it dies?
How long is a piece of string? A well built car owned by a fastidious owner who religiously maintains it, or a Chinese crapbox owned by an idiot who never touches the bonnet release during his ownership?Mr2Mike said:
How long is a piece of string? A well built car owned by a fastidious owner who religiously maintains it, or a Chinese crap box owned by an idiot who never touches the bonnet release during his ownership?
Just bought a 15 year old Galaxy for ferrying crap about in. Checked the oil for mayo, exhaust is burning clean, no tappet rattle, nothing leaking under it, decent brakes tyres and an mot. I didn't even bat an eyelid that it was on 154,000 miles when I handed over the money.I replaced a 2005 Mondeo petrol with a 2007 Astra diesel. The Mondeo had 72k on it. The Astra has 68k.
The Mondeo was ruined. The clutch on it's way out of the second time due to leaking slave cylinders, the suspension was falling to bit, the rear subframe bushes were stuffed, and there were a number of electrical gremlins. Not to mention the constant problems with handbrake cables and rear calipers seizing. Easily £2k worth of repairs and I'd still end up with a car with knackered seats, delaminating windscreen, 32mpg, and rusty arches. The engine was perfect, but the rest of the car just wasn't built to last it would seem.
So, I spent a grand more and got the Astra which has the good old Isuzu 1.7 diesel, no DPF, leather seats, auto everything. All the common faults in Astras of that era were either fixed before I got it, or fixed on warranty (loose wiper arms, leaky antenna base, etc). I fully expect the Astra to be fine for another 60k.
The Mondeo was ruined. The clutch on it's way out of the second time due to leaking slave cylinders, the suspension was falling to bit, the rear subframe bushes were stuffed, and there were a number of electrical gremlins. Not to mention the constant problems with handbrake cables and rear calipers seizing. Easily £2k worth of repairs and I'd still end up with a car with knackered seats, delaminating windscreen, 32mpg, and rusty arches. The engine was perfect, but the rest of the car just wasn't built to last it would seem.
So, I spent a grand more and got the Astra which has the good old Isuzu 1.7 diesel, no DPF, leather seats, auto everything. All the common faults in Astras of that era were either fixed before I got it, or fixed on warranty (loose wiper arms, leaky antenna base, etc). I fully expect the Astra to be fine for another 60k.
I think '90s cars will remain a local high point of durability for the next few years. The reason being that underneath, they're fundamentally 1970s technology refined and perfected - rustproofing improved and simple solid state electronics replaced frangible mechanical parts, but the basic pattern of naturally aspirated transverse FWD with manual gearbox or hydraulic overdrive automatic is little different to the first Fiestas and Golfs.
All of the things like discrete component wiring (as opposed to CAN), solid flywheels, fuel injection, five speed gearboxes were things the industry had 20+ years of experience in and knew intimately the common design problems and pitfalls to avoid. Crude, but well-built. There's a lot of reputations been built on that kind of methodology, and not just in cars.
In the past decade however, there's been an explosion in tech. An explosion in the sheer all-round capability of cars, too, but it's not been without its teething troubles. My previous car, an S60, is a good example - even at 10 years old it was pretty sound and indeed they've been known to record 250k+ mileages, but the autobox (a relatively early electronically controlled five speed) had all but thrown in the towel before 70k. By all accounts not uncommon for cars of that age across a wide range of manufacturers. Things have improved with experience and 5/6 speed torque convertor boxes are largely reliable and capable of interstellar mileages again, but of course technology kept moving on and it's now the DSGs suffering from first-generation wobbles. (The 8 and 9 speed autos are probably too new to draw any durability conclusions from yet.)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the basic template of a "modern" car - six speed or complex auto, CAN-style electronics, dual mass flywheel, turbo, lots of emissions and safety equipment - enter that same sort of refinement stage some point over the next decade, though. In which case we probably will see the promise of 250,000 mile lifespans modern build and rustproofing standards give become increasingly common. (It's entirely possible to get there now, but more often than not will involve riding out at least one expensive mechanical or electronic failure along the way.)
All of the things like discrete component wiring (as opposed to CAN), solid flywheels, fuel injection, five speed gearboxes were things the industry had 20+ years of experience in and knew intimately the common design problems and pitfalls to avoid. Crude, but well-built. There's a lot of reputations been built on that kind of methodology, and not just in cars.
In the past decade however, there's been an explosion in tech. An explosion in the sheer all-round capability of cars, too, but it's not been without its teething troubles. My previous car, an S60, is a good example - even at 10 years old it was pretty sound and indeed they've been known to record 250k+ mileages, but the autobox (a relatively early electronically controlled five speed) had all but thrown in the towel before 70k. By all accounts not uncommon for cars of that age across a wide range of manufacturers. Things have improved with experience and 5/6 speed torque convertor boxes are largely reliable and capable of interstellar mileages again, but of course technology kept moving on and it's now the DSGs suffering from first-generation wobbles. (The 8 and 9 speed autos are probably too new to draw any durability conclusions from yet.)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the basic template of a "modern" car - six speed or complex auto, CAN-style electronics, dual mass flywheel, turbo, lots of emissions and safety equipment - enter that same sort of refinement stage some point over the next decade, though. In which case we probably will see the promise of 250,000 mile lifespans modern build and rustproofing standards give become increasingly common. (It's entirely possible to get there now, but more often than not will involve riding out at least one expensive mechanical or electronic failure along the way.)
FoundOnRoadside said:
I replaced a 2005 Mondeo petrol with a 2007 Astra diesel. The Mondeo had 72k on it. The Astra has 68k.
The Mondeo was ruined. The clutch on it's way out of the second time due to leaking slave cylinders, the suspension was falling to bit, the rear subframe bushes were stuffed, and there were a number of electrical gremlins. Not to mention the constant problems with handbrake cables and rear calipers seizing. Easily £2k worth of repairs and I'd still end up with a car with knackered seats, delaminating windscreen, 32mpg, and rusty arches. The engine was perfect, but the rest of the car just wasn't built to last it would seem.
So, I spent a grand more and got the Astra which has the good old Isuzu 1.7 diesel, no DPF, leather seats, auto everything. All the common faults in Astras of that era were either fixed before I got it, or fixed on warranty (loose wiper arms, leaky antenna base, etc). I fully expect the Astra to be fine for another 60k.
I had an 07 Astra with that engine and sold it on 18 months ago as the cost of necessary repairs at 95k miles was getting close to the car's value....The Mondeo was ruined. The clutch on it's way out of the second time due to leaking slave cylinders, the suspension was falling to bit, the rear subframe bushes were stuffed, and there were a number of electrical gremlins. Not to mention the constant problems with handbrake cables and rear calipers seizing. Easily £2k worth of repairs and I'd still end up with a car with knackered seats, delaminating windscreen, 32mpg, and rusty arches. The engine was perfect, but the rest of the car just wasn't built to last it would seem.
So, I spent a grand more and got the Astra which has the good old Isuzu 1.7 diesel, no DPF, leather seats, auto everything. All the common faults in Astras of that era were either fixed before I got it, or fixed on warranty (loose wiper arms, leaky antenna base, etc). I fully expect the Astra to be fine for another 60k.
tvanman. it was still pretty damned solid at that time just a spot or two of surface rust in the usual places.These things are always open to a bit of variance, but I really don't see too many on these modern TDDCDDHDi heaps lasting the distance.
They're far too high-tech for 'budget' motorists to look after when they get down to the £1500 bracket, you only have to look in any scrapyard to see the number 7-10 year old cars in seemingly excellent nick they have in stock.
Blow up a turbo and crunch a DMF and it's more money to mend than the thing's worth, so market forces take over.
Put it this way, there are still quite a few old Vectas and Puggy 306s about the place, how many Insignias and 308s do you think we'll see on the roads in 2030?
They're far too high-tech for 'budget' motorists to look after when they get down to the £1500 bracket, you only have to look in any scrapyard to see the number 7-10 year old cars in seemingly excellent nick they have in stock.
Blow up a turbo and crunch a DMF and it's more money to mend than the thing's worth, so market forces take over.
Put it this way, there are still quite a few old Vectas and Puggy 306s about the place, how many Insignias and 308s do you think we'll see on the roads in 2030?
It depends on the car to be honest. I had a 96 Golf GTI that hit 122k with no prolem at all but they do reach a point where you can keep them going almost forever with some constant welding and repairs (avoidable had i had the car 10 years ago as it wasn't looked after. A lot depends on parts prices - the Golf prices were all remarkably affordable.
I now have a Fiesta ST as that should also have cheap parts - you can get headlamp units cheap for example and there isn't really much to go wrong - no turbo or sophisticated electronics - so I expect it to last a long time.
I now have a Fiesta ST as that should also have cheap parts - you can get headlamp units cheap for example and there isn't really much to go wrong - no turbo or sophisticated electronics - so I expect it to last a long time.
My 2001 7 series drives like a new car (it's a cliche but it really does) and at 117k it probably could manage a million or so miles with the correct maintainance. The issue is how much to spend? View it at it's original £65000 value and you'd suck up the occasional £5000 bill when the fuel tank, suspension and tyres need doing, this is fine, however if the car is only worth £4000 the temptation may be to scrap it.
It's one of those things, it could be the last car I ever buy and do me for 40 years, or it could be cubed when the MOT comes around, it just depends on the owner's inclination to keep or cut up
It's one of those things, it could be the last car I ever buy and do me for 40 years, or it could be cubed when the MOT comes around, it just depends on the owner's inclination to keep or cut up
It's reasons like this that make me vow never to buy a diesel. All the crap shoved into them aimed at making them as clean and flexible as a petrol engine acts like a mechanical timebomb. We have a predominantly diesel fleet at work and the frequency with which they need servicing and the mileage by which a lot of them are totally shagged is embarassing for certain well-known cars companies trading on their reliability who I won't mention here.
Looking at the advances in petrol engines made by Fiat with TwinAir and VW with TSI makes me wonder whether diesel only really makes sense if you've got a really big, heavy car that needs lots of torque to shift, but also needs to return good mpg (although these new diesels only seem to do decent mpg on the motorways - elsewhere they're not much different to petrols, but use more expensive fuel).
Looking at the advances in petrol engines made by Fiat with TwinAir and VW with TSI makes me wonder whether diesel only really makes sense if you've got a really big, heavy car that needs lots of torque to shift, but also needs to return good mpg (although these new diesels only seem to do decent mpg on the motorways - elsewhere they're not much different to petrols, but use more expensive fuel).
also depends what you mean by 'economic repair' if its simply cost of repair is worth more than the car then thats a very narrow view.
If you factor in purchase cost of something else, depreciation, possibly finance etc then the maths are less convincing and it starts to come down to 'piece of mind', if things start to go wrong your confidence is knocked, its inconvenient etc.
How many people have cars that are "worth more to them than their value", cos its devil you know.
Similarly lots of people change cars at the time/age/milage many of the ancilliaries start to go wrong, but pumping the money into the car that needs a DPF/Alternator/turbo, brakes starter motor etc change may be wise money spent in the long run, the problem is confidence - how long to you hang in there not knowing when the next bill is coming.
If you factor in purchase cost of something else, depreciation, possibly finance etc then the maths are less convincing and it starts to come down to 'piece of mind', if things start to go wrong your confidence is knocked, its inconvenient etc.
How many people have cars that are "worth more to them than their value", cos its devil you know.
Similarly lots of people change cars at the time/age/milage many of the ancilliaries start to go wrong, but pumping the money into the car that needs a DPF/Alternator/turbo, brakes starter motor etc change may be wise money spent in the long run, the problem is confidence - how long to you hang in there not knowing when the next bill is coming.
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