Where will modern cars be in 20-30 years time?
Discussion
The thread about modern cars being knackered after 7-8 years, plus the fact I am going to Classics on The Common tonight, made me think this:
- in 20-30 years time, will today's cars be arriving at a classic car show?
You go to a big show these days and you see a wide variety of rare / exotic cars, but also many mainstream cars that were mass-produced for normal everyday transport (Anglia's, Herald's, MGB GT, Rover P's etc etc).
There is still so much nostalgia and love for these cars years on.
Can anyone ever imaging the same being said for an Audi A3 or Ford Focus in years to come?
- in 20-30 years time, will today's cars be arriving at a classic car show?
You go to a big show these days and you see a wide variety of rare / exotic cars, but also many mainstream cars that were mass-produced for normal everyday transport (Anglia's, Herald's, MGB GT, Rover P's etc etc).
There is still so much nostalgia and love for these cars years on.
Can anyone ever imaging the same being said for an Audi A3 or Ford Focus in years to come?
I would very much doubt that you will see run of the mill stuff from this era. For a start, no one seems to care enough about how their cars actually work to want to get thier hands dirty in years to come, plus they are so complicated todays cars don't lend themselves to the DIY mechanic like they used to in the 60's.
I myself am in a minority in my street as I seem to be the only one that carries out basic servicing myself and regularly cleans & polishes the car. Everyone else treats them as white goods these days, when I was younger there seemed to be more people interested in cars than there are today. I reckon that the reason for that is that 95% of new stuff is so bland that there is little reason to be interested in it and also the mods we used to do in the past are impossible on modern stuff.
So, what will be at shows in 20 years time....well, heres my list :
MG's - seem to be owned more by enthusiasts like myself
Rover's - Most are still immacculate after 10 years due to being cherished by the older end
Alfa's - Again, owned more by car lovers
Certain BMW's - Always had a following
Odd stuff like Fiat Coupes, Chrysler Crossfires, Peugeot RCZ's etc.
Everything else will be crushed...hopefully all the Korean 'white goods' will be anyway!
I myself am in a minority in my street as I seem to be the only one that carries out basic servicing myself and regularly cleans & polishes the car. Everyone else treats them as white goods these days, when I was younger there seemed to be more people interested in cars than there are today. I reckon that the reason for that is that 95% of new stuff is so bland that there is little reason to be interested in it and also the mods we used to do in the past are impossible on modern stuff.
So, what will be at shows in 20 years time....well, heres my list :
MG's - seem to be owned more by enthusiasts like myself
Rover's - Most are still immacculate after 10 years due to being cherished by the older end
Alfa's - Again, owned more by car lovers
Certain BMW's - Always had a following
Odd stuff like Fiat Coupes, Chrysler Crossfires, Peugeot RCZ's etc.
Everything else will be crushed...hopefully all the Korean 'white goods' will be anyway!
There will still be place for classics IMO. Cars of a certain era mean different things to different people. My dad loves cars like the Jaguar E-Type and the Jenson Interceptor probably because when he was young he desired them.
I like cars like the E30 M3, RS Turbo Escorts, Cosworths, Ferrari F40 etc because these were the cars that I wanted as a child. Kids growing up now will love Focus RS', M3's, Audi RS5's, etc. and will buy them when they are in their 30's / 40's.
There will be less admittedly purely because there seems to be less of a following in cars nowadays. There have always been the white good drivers though, they moved from Nissan Bluebirds to Vectras to Passats.
I like cars like the E30 M3, RS Turbo Escorts, Cosworths, Ferrari F40 etc because these were the cars that I wanted as a child. Kids growing up now will love Focus RS', M3's, Audi RS5's, etc. and will buy them when they are in their 30's / 40's.
There will be less admittedly purely because there seems to be less of a following in cars nowadays. There have always been the white good drivers though, they moved from Nissan Bluebirds to Vectras to Passats.
Regardless of people wishing to give modern motors a following, I can't see many existing in 40 years (at least in running form) owing to the great complexity of modern cars. Old Triumphs, MGs, Fords etc. are still going owing to their mostly mechanical nature and basic electrics. With all the electronics (not the same as electrics), one chip goes up the spout, a transistor, a printed circuit board, and the car's up s
t creek. Old cars can be repaired through a network of specialists knocking out replacement parts for relative cheapness (not to mention the ease of repair in the first place owing much to their longevity) while the first sign of an expensive repair on modern cars will consign them to the scrappy.
I'd like to see people repairing electronics in their shed. Not to mention that motoring isn't the same as before - younger people today aren't worried about make do and repair, but are part of a defined lifetime society. With cars being chucked out so soon these days, I can't see many making it to 2050 in working order.
t creek. Old cars can be repaired through a network of specialists knocking out replacement parts for relative cheapness (not to mention the ease of repair in the first place owing much to their longevity) while the first sign of an expensive repair on modern cars will consign them to the scrappy. I'd like to see people repairing electronics in their shed. Not to mention that motoring isn't the same as before - younger people today aren't worried about make do and repair, but are part of a defined lifetime society. With cars being chucked out so soon these days, I can't see many making it to 2050 in working order.
People are so terrified of the "complexity" of modern cars, but for me a sensor monitored and ECU controlled engine is substantially less complicated and easier to understand than a car with carbs, vacuum advance and the various other cludges that used to exist.
I understand concern about replacing ECUs and suchlike, and this may well take less valuable and more ordinary cars off the road in the medium term. Long term I predict a market for swappable generic ECUs with loom adapters and software configuration to take over from the factory ECU. It'll start at the top end of the market and the technology will filter down. Practically any module in any car could be replaced in this fashion, particularly the more modern stuff that communicates with a well known and well defined standard - CANBUS.
I understand concern about replacing ECUs and suchlike, and this may well take less valuable and more ordinary cars off the road in the medium term. Long term I predict a market for swappable generic ECUs with loom adapters and software configuration to take over from the factory ECU. It'll start at the top end of the market and the technology will filter down. Practically any module in any car could be replaced in this fashion, particularly the more modern stuff that communicates with a well known and well defined standard - CANBUS.
dme123 said:
People are so terrified of the "complexity" of modern cars, but for me a sensor monitored and ECU controlled engine is substantially less complicated and easier to understand than a car with carbs, vacuum advance and the various other cludges that used to exist.
I understand concern about replacing ECUs and suchlike, and this may well take less valuable and more ordinary cars off the road in the medium term. Long term I predict a market for swappable generic ECUs with loom adapters and software configuration to take over from the factory ECU. It'll start at the top end of the market and the technology will filter down. Practically any module in any car could be replaced in this fashion, particularly the more modern stuff that communicates with a well known and well defined standard - CANBUS.
I'll tend to disagree with that. In my line of work I frequently see ever increasing levels of technology that are either irreplaceable beyond manufacturer standards or would be prohibitively expensive. Sure generic maps could be written, but they aren't ideal for longevity and there is a lot more than just fuel and ignition timing to be taken into account when dealing with ideal operating conditions. That and all the other gizmos (of which there is an ever increasing amount - take the self parking options for example) are going to be prone to failure and very difficult to fix. IMO, cars that are around today will be outlasted by cars that are already classics. Ever increasingly cars are designed not to be fixed beyond a certain point.I understand concern about replacing ECUs and suchlike, and this may well take less valuable and more ordinary cars off the road in the medium term. Long term I predict a market for swappable generic ECUs with loom adapters and software configuration to take over from the factory ECU. It'll start at the top end of the market and the technology will filter down. Practically any module in any car could be replaced in this fashion, particularly the more modern stuff that communicates with a well known and well defined standard - CANBUS.
I recently started a topic similar to this. My feeling is that keeping todays cars running in 50 years time could well be out the question unless you have the funds and access to chip schematics and maps. You might be able to create some sort of home brew solution (similar to megasquirt/megajolt). But a lot of the electronics will be a pig to sort out. So many sensors and chips to go wrong and how to replace?
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