Auction Climate - Anyone been lately - What do you reckon..?
Discussion
I went to one about 18 months ago and a lot of stuff was going for retail price, with most of the cheaper stuff looking like it had been in a knock or sounding terrible driving in with people not bidding high prices for good reason. There was still the odd bargain though, the best bargain in my opinion was a W plate E46 BMW 330I with full MOT and full leather interior and a full service history, I had a look round it and couldn't find any issues and it went for £300.
Trade prices are incredibly high at the moment and probably for the foreseeable future. It's a knock on effect of late 2008-2009 new car sales. Remember, across the board, in around that 15 month period, only around 35% of new cars usually sold were, sold. Obviously some crazy drops for some manufacturers but even mainstream suffered a 40-50% drop. My sector is medium upper/4x4 so in some cases 70%.
The result is very little good quality 3-4 years old stock. In particular 4x4. Coupled with the inclement weather and some seriously bad weather to come, even those thinking of a change are holding back 'just in case'. The result? A surprisingly good retail position (if you can get stock) firm prices, no discounts etc.
In regards to mainstream, that is the sector that is just feeling better (and most under the squeeze) about finances etc. they have realised that it's probably more sensible to purchase an extra years warranty or refinance a final PCP payment works out much better than buying new again (just yet). Again, holding off for a while.
And moving forward for the next 6-12 months? Not much better. My reasoning? Well, Scrappage arrived in 2010 to try and support the industry. In addition, some insane, up to 5 years 0% deals. This left the buyers who where in a position to buy with some of the most incredibly cheap motoring in UK history. Why upgrade now, when you're sitting on another 2 years of 0% before you have to buy again?
And there's more....
What about the cheapie end of the market? Well, Scrappage put an end to that too. By removing a massive pool of 10-15 years old cars that young drivers/less well of would traditionally purchase, they are forced to buy cars that are now only 8-9 years old. So pushing up those prices. It then has a cascade upwards effect on prices.
If that makes sense?
The result is very little good quality 3-4 years old stock. In particular 4x4. Coupled with the inclement weather and some seriously bad weather to come, even those thinking of a change are holding back 'just in case'. The result? A surprisingly good retail position (if you can get stock) firm prices, no discounts etc.
In regards to mainstream, that is the sector that is just feeling better (and most under the squeeze) about finances etc. they have realised that it's probably more sensible to purchase an extra years warranty or refinance a final PCP payment works out much better than buying new again (just yet). Again, holding off for a while.
And moving forward for the next 6-12 months? Not much better. My reasoning? Well, Scrappage arrived in 2010 to try and support the industry. In addition, some insane, up to 5 years 0% deals. This left the buyers who where in a position to buy with some of the most incredibly cheap motoring in UK history. Why upgrade now, when you're sitting on another 2 years of 0% before you have to buy again?
And there's more....
What about the cheapie end of the market? Well, Scrappage put an end to that too. By removing a massive pool of 10-15 years old cars that young drivers/less well of would traditionally purchase, they are forced to buy cars that are now only 8-9 years old. So pushing up those prices. It then has a cascade upwards effect on prices.
If that makes sense?
Edited by TVR1 on Wednesday 29th January 20:13
Just back from a SMA sale. Prices up here at least are crazy. Managed to buy 3 tonight and got 4 last thursday, but strong strong money, to the extent that unless you were buying something a bit different it woulld be near impossible to get a margain. Trade is busy, and to keep that way you need to replenish stock. Not easy. Smaler margins and i just have to hope to get nice trade ins to get two cracks at it, more time consuming but i have been buying stock from private folk on autotrader and gumtree. Heyho cant moan about being busy.
jonny70 said:
Prizam said:
Got a few Christmas bargains, but it has been very high lately.
Hold on though, because its all about to crash, lots of used PCP deals coming on to the 2nd hand market soon.
care to elaborateHold on though, because its all about to crash, lots of used PCP deals coming on to the 2nd hand market soon.
This gives you less demand for the current stock.
During the recession, massive new car or nearly new car deals were to keep manufactures afloat. The scrapper scheme helped with this too. These deals, leases are all comming to and end. As well as the natural new car 5 year cycle that most folk tend to go by.
So... you have less demand for 2nd hand cars, because they are too prices and folk get PCP deals, and you have lots of new stock comming on to the 2nd hand market.
Supply and demand suggests that the price of 2nd hand cars will drop..... hence, don't keep a big stock of them
amirzed said:
If cars are going for well strong money how would one go about selling a 2 year old VAG car for strong money? Approach traders directly?
Privately, you cant. People who want to spend that sort of money usually only want to from a dealer. and mostly want to on finance.You could approach a dealer and ask them to sell on your behalf, but they will want there cut.
va1o said:
Has anyone been to auction this month yet?
I'm thinking of going this week, will be looking at 3-year old ex-lease out off warranty diesels with above average miles. Are these cars likely to achieve their full CAP clean price?
Prices are still strong, i expect them to still reach full price. Maby even more. Mileage means less and less these days.I'm thinking of going this week, will be looking at 3-year old ex-lease out off warranty diesels with above average miles. Are these cars likely to achieve their full CAP clean price?
Prizam said:
Prices are currently high. This is because there is not much stock about. When prices for a 2nd hand car are high people look to buy new on PCP.
This gives you less demand for the current stock.
During the recession, massive new car or nearly new car deals were to keep manufactures afloat. The scrapper scheme helped with this too. These deals, leases are all comming to and end. As well as the natural new car 5 year cycle that most folk tend to go by.
So... you have less demand for 2nd hand cars, because they are too prices and folk get PCP deals, and you have lots of new stock comming on to the 2nd hand market.
Supply and demand suggests that the price of 2nd hand cars will drop..... hence, don't keep a big stock of them
When do you expect 2nd hand car prices to weaken? Probably looking to buy a 2010/11 VW Golf petrol from probably BCA within the next few months ,do you recon I should wait?This gives you less demand for the current stock.
During the recession, massive new car or nearly new car deals were to keep manufactures afloat. The scrapper scheme helped with this too. These deals, leases are all comming to and end. As well as the natural new car 5 year cycle that most folk tend to go by.
So... you have less demand for 2nd hand cars, because they are too prices and folk get PCP deals, and you have lots of new stock comming on to the 2nd hand market.
Supply and demand suggests that the price of 2nd hand cars will drop..... hence, don't keep a big stock of them
Edited by jonny70 on Wednesday 12th February 14:48
jonny70 said:
When do you expect 2nd hand car prices to weaken? Probably looking to buy a 2010/11 VW Golf petrol from probably BCA within the next few months ,do you recon I should wait?
Sounds similar to me as I've been looking at Golfs too. At the moment prices on Autotrader seem high for clean cars, leaving just abused rubbish at the lower prices. Anything tidy and well priced is snapped up quickly. Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff