Classic cars and future generations

[fastgerman]

An interesting chat this morning at an auto firm I'm currently placed at...

We were discussing the popular generation of classic cars and their owners.

In brief:

40 - 60 year old gentlemen (and ladies) have the spare funds to buy their childhood dreams.

These are approximately 1960 - 1980's cars in the main. Vintage Ferrari, Porsche, Aston Martin, Jaguar and so on.

This generation of classic car values seems to have gone through the roof.

What about 60 - 80 years olds? Do they care for 1940 - 1960 cars? And what about pre-1940 cars?

So, onto the point:

When the current generation of teenagers are oldies with lots of money, what will they buy?

Nissan GTR / New Honda NSX / BMW i8 / Some form of hybrid Porsche?

Will they care about an £800k 911 2.7 RS, a £1m Mercedes-Benz 300SL?

Perhaps not.

Thoughts?

[williamp]

itll be the cars which you lusted after as children. This is why cars from the 80s are now doing so well: people my age now have disposable income and used to dream about sierra cosworths, E30 M3 etc etc

So, logically next will be cars from the 90s: original imprezza etc.

[fastgerman]

williamp said:

itll be the cars which you lusted after as children. This is why cars from the 80s are now doing so well: people my age now have disposable income and used to dream about sierra cosworths, E30 M3 etc etc

So, logically next will be cars from the 90s: original imprezza etc.

Yes completely agree.

So, when the old generation have gone to a better place, will the next generation keep the flame alight for the < 1960's cars or will new generations lose interest and values start to fall?

I don't see any topics discussing this kind of car:

[chazola]

Is that Karl Pilkington?

[PositronicRay]

I think 60's and 70's cars are usable, that's the difference. They can keep up with traffic, warm, comfortable and handle okay. Whilst a prewar jalopy is fun for a sunny day and a few miles, any more than that becomes a P.I.T.A

[RobM77]

I think we're at a strange point in time right now, because up until recently, even very early cars could conceivably be owned by people around when those cars were new. However, I think there's more to it than that though. My Dad was born in 1948, and since I was a kid he's had a 1938 bike, a 1938 car and a 1947 car, all of which were made before he was born. His current hobby is steam, which obviously massively predates his era! I was born in 1977 and some of my dream cars come from the 1960s, 50s and even 30s and 40s.

So I think they'll be a certain percentage of owners wanting something from their childhood (like me lusting after a 288 GTO, F40, F1 etc), but also a good healthy percentage of people with just a love of history and engineering (as I lust after a 250F, 250 SWB, ERA, BRMV16, Type 49 etc).

[Claudia Skies]

It's absolutely the usual pattern - wealthier middle aged people buying the dreams of their youth.

Prices peak and then fade with the generations.

[Riley Blue]

It's an interesting question, one that concerns most one-make classic car clubs and in particular those catering for older cars - like mine, where production stopped around 1970. In recent years we've noticed an increase in members owning later models, i.e cars manufactured in the '60s. Whilst the number of members owning earlier cars has remained fairly static so far, we're anticipating a decline as older cars are disposed of - sold or scrapped - as their elderly owners die.
We have a 'transferable membership' to try to combat this - if a members sells their car, the unexpired portion of their membership year can go with the car to the new owner. However, as a club, we often talk about having to attract younger members and it's increasingly difficult to do as they're just not interested in older cars or if they are, they can't afford to but and run them.
Pre-70s cars just don't appeal to 20 and 30 year olds; that's a fact we're having to live with. I'm quite prepared for my two Rileys to be scrapped when I die as I've no one to leave them to.

[kambites]

williamp said:

itll be the cars which you lusted after as children.

I suspect this is true in the main, although it's certainly not true for me. The cars I like most were generally produced 10-20 years before I was born (or earlier).

[Guvernator]

I think the 90's era cars may well be the last generation of collectable cars, anything built post 2000 ish is either too generic, has to much technology which can go wrong or removes driver interaction. In fact baring a few very special cars like GT3's etc, what car can you see that's been built in say the last 10 years as being truly desirable\collectable in 30 years time?

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years, kind of depressing really.

Also speaking to some of the younger generation, I see a lot less interest in cars then seemed the norm when I was young, at least in terms of enjoyment of actually driving. They seem to be seen as a slightly archaic necessary evil not long for this world by the more "hip" youngsters or simply a mode of getting from A to B. I very much doubt the kids of today will be lusting after a 2009 GT-R in 30 years time.

[fastgerman]

That's a sad prospect for your Riley's. Hopefully a good museum will take them e.g. Brooklands.

With decreasing vintage cars on the road, more small engineering firms will also close who still supply the parts. Metric tyres are already hard to source.

I drove a 1968 911T recently, it was great fun but acceleration was 10 seconds to 60 and brakes were scary. This was on a car maintained as new.

Imagine when every car on the road can accelerate to 60 in 5 seconds and brake in less. All of these cars are in front of you and you're driving a 1960 E Type, have to jump on the brakes and then all the hatchbacks overtake you as you're accelerating... That was my experience in the old 911 and hence, I don't want one.

[Claudia Skies]

Guvernator said:

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years,

That's probably the reality. Tinkering with classic cars is going to become as obsolete as having a steam engine for your hobby.

[kambites]

Guvernator said:

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years, kind of depressing really.

I can't see that happening, although I could see them being banned from city centres. As far as I'm aware there is no precident at all - anything that's ever been allowed on the roads in the UK still is.

Why would they do it? By the time we get to the point where it would be politically viable, there will be so few ICE powered cars left on the roads anyway that there would be no significant benefit in banning them.


ETA: I guess I can see some roads being designated "automated cars only" in the same say that motorways are only open to motorised vehicles.

Edited by kambites on Wednesday 18th February 15:14

[RobM77]

Claudia Skies said:

Guvernator said:

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years,

That's probably the reality. Tinkering with classic cars is going to become as obsolete as having a steam engine for your hobby.

See my above post! Personally I think you're right, but I really don't mind being the eccentric old bloke down the road with internal combustion engined racing cars It may well be just like my Dad with his steam stuff, but he still enjoys it.

[J8 SVG]

Only 23 and I'd buy a pre-60s car if the prices were right and it fitted with my lifestyle Hoping it all aligns at some point in the future

[aka_kerrly]

chazola said:

Is that Karl Pilkington?

Or it's the guy from the Money Supermarket advert

Have to agree that 90s cars will see the next big boom being bought by those in their 30s, only the other night me and some friends were searching for cars from our youth like Pug 106 Rallyes, classic Impreza WRXs, Evos 3-6s and looking at the prices of R32 Skylines and such like - definitely on the UP.

What saddens me more and more is I'm starting to wonder if kids these days even care about cars other than having a rough idea that a Veyron is super expensive and fast.

[fastgerman]

Guvernator said:

I think the 90's era cars may well be the last generation of collectable cars, anything built post 2000 ish is either too generic, has to much technology which can go wrong or removes driver interaction. In fact baring a few very special cars like GT3's etc, what car can you see that's been built in say the last 10 years as being truly desirable\collectable in 30 years time?

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years, kind of depressing really.

Also speaking to some of the younger generation, I see a lot less interest in cars then seemed the norm when I was young, at least in terms of enjoyment of actually driving. They seem to be seen as a slightly archaic necessary evil not long for this world by the more "hip" youngsters or simply a mode of getting from A to B. I very much doubt the kids of today will be lusting after a 2009 GT-R in 30 years time.

Re-cars built in the last 10 years:
Any Ferrari, Aston, Porsche (2 door), Jaguar (2 door), Lotus, BMW M3 CSL, Mercedes 6.2 V8 models etc

Even early arcade / games consoles are becoming collectable

[Fruitcake]

williamp said:

So, logically next will be cars from the 90s: original imprezza etc.

100%. I think it was evo magazine that recently put the 22b as the number 1 "future classic". It's widely accepted that certain variations, mainly GC8, that will be the most sought after. RA, 22b and TypeR are the main ones to start being garaged and possibly the P1 even though its a watered down TypeR.

I've just garaged a Version 4 STI TypeR for this very reason.

[Riley Blue]

I suspect that within a couple of generations, perhaps even within a few decades, classic motoring will be a thing of the past. New fuels, the increasing popularity of driver-less cars, changing attitudes will all conspire to ensure they don't survive other than as static museum pieces.

In the meantime, I shall terrorise the roads as much as I possibly can... Parp-parp!!

[markcoznottz]

Claudia Skies said:

Guvernator said:

In fact I'd be very surprised if we are even allowed to drive petrol powered cars on the public road in 30 years,

That's probably the reality. Tinkering with classic cars is going to become as obsolete as having a steam engine for your hobby.

We are a bunch of obsolete freaks, I think the General public view us with amusement and distaste in the main. Go to an auto jumble, white males 40-80 (odd exception obviously). Don't forget that wheeler dealers and top gear are mainstream entertainment, it doesn't make people want to stand in a cold garage skinning thier knuckles. The last proper car show was fifth gear and that pushed of mainstream tv. Mate commented to me yesterday that his recent Le Mans trip was very narrow age range, again 40+ only.