ICE/EVs state of play
Discussion
Summary of two long articles in the Telegraph, one yesterday, one today. The changeover from ICE to EVs is not going as smoothly as some would like.
The number of cars on the road over 15 years old 2001 - 1.7m 2022 - 5.3m 2032 - 9.3m (estimate}
The number of cars over 10 years old on the road is 11.8m, in 2028 - 15.4m (estimate) which is 40%
Disruption caused by covid/chip shortage means that 2m vehicles have not been manufactured and sold
62% think the country is not ready for the changeover, 42% think it should be scrapped altogether
All vehicles are too expensive so there is buyer resistance to new, second hand prices are 33% higher than average
The average price of an EV is £61,320 giving a range of 219 miles
The average price of an ICE is £29,018 giving a range of 413 miles
Potential buyers of used EVs are concerned that they will be permanently tied to main dealer servicing
Most drivers are adopting the policy of keeping the current car running regardless of big bills
Manufacturers are hoping that big bills and lack of parts becomes too difficult
The number of cars on the road over 15 years old 2001 - 1.7m 2022 - 5.3m 2032 - 9.3m (estimate}
The number of cars over 10 years old on the road is 11.8m, in 2028 - 15.4m (estimate) which is 40%
Disruption caused by covid/chip shortage means that 2m vehicles have not been manufactured and sold
62% think the country is not ready for the changeover, 42% think it should be scrapped altogether
All vehicles are too expensive so there is buyer resistance to new, second hand prices are 33% higher than average
The average price of an EV is £61,320 giving a range of 219 miles
The average price of an ICE is £29,018 giving a range of 413 miles
Potential buyers of used EVs are concerned that they will be permanently tied to main dealer servicing
Most drivers are adopting the policy of keeping the current car running regardless of big bills
Manufacturers are hoping that big bills and lack of parts becomes too difficult
mtvessel said:
62% think the country is not ready for the changeover, 42% think it should be scrapped altogether
Yay, another load of EV persecution complex twaddle. Hardly shocking that it comes from a right wing publication.There's no "changeover". Nobody will be forced to buy an EV.
The market share growth for BEVs in the UK has slowed to a crawl just over 15% market share YTD up only 1% on last year, the inconvenient fact is once you're through the middle class tax break cohort people cannot afford them.
As they are selling around 200k a year it's going to take an awful long time to transition the UKs 30 million ICE cars across to them, expect the proposed ban to be kicked down the road.
As they are selling around 200k a year it's going to take an awful long time to transition the UKs 30 million ICE cars across to them, expect the proposed ban to be kicked down the road.
I've been mulling over what to replace my 2010 E500 with when the time comes. None of the newer Merc stuff appeals. So I've decided I'll replace my wife's Fiat 500 with something larger like a Golf GTI and then I can get something smaller and V8-ish for me - looking a low mileage 2013 XK8 this morning and have also been browsing SL55's CLS55's, E500 Coupes and XKRs.
For me, new cars stopped being interesting somewhere in the mid 2010s when they started morphing into chintzy tech fests with less and less interesting drivetrains and terrible ride quality.
A 2.0 petrol turbo and a petrol V8 will do me for a good few years yet. I don't want a BEV and most PHEVs don't appeal at all.
For me, new cars stopped being interesting somewhere in the mid 2010s when they started morphing into chintzy tech fests with less and less interesting drivetrains and terrible ride quality.
A 2.0 petrol turbo and a petrol V8 will do me for a good few years yet. I don't want a BEV and most PHEVs don't appeal at all.
The Telegraph have an agenda. We’re still in the early days of the tech. Was reading yesterday about the next gen of vehicles coming- Tesla Model 2, expected to be around £25k in 2025. VW ID2, £22k in 2025.
I think the ID2 looks a cracker for a mainstream car, it will sell well. VW have an ID1 planned- £17k estimated starting price. VW alone have 10 new electric models coming by 2026. We’re still not in the mainstream phase yet. These will be seen as either the trailblazing or clunky/dysfunctional years, depending on your view!
I think we’ll only be able to take a more balanced view in another 3 years or so, by which time many more vehicles will be available with better ranges, better public charging, improved styling/quality, better price tags and so on.
I think the ID2 looks a cracker for a mainstream car, it will sell well. VW have an ID1 planned- £17k estimated starting price. VW alone have 10 new electric models coming by 2026. We’re still not in the mainstream phase yet. These will be seen as either the trailblazing or clunky/dysfunctional years, depending on your view!
I think we’ll only be able to take a more balanced view in another 3 years or so, by which time many more vehicles will be available with better ranges, better public charging, improved styling/quality, better price tags and so on.
AC43 said:
I've been mulling over what to replace my 2010 E500 with when the time comes. None of the newer Merc stuff appeals. So I've decided I'll replace my wife's Fiat 500 with something larger like a Golf GTI and then I can get something smaller and V8-ish for me - looking a low mileage 2013 XK8 this morning and have also been browsing SL55's CLS55's, E500 Coupes and XKRs.
For me, new cars stopped being interesting somewhere in the mid 2010s when they started morphing into chintzy tech fests with less and less interesting drivetrains and terrible ride quality.
A 2.0 petrol turbo and a petrol V8 will do me for a good few years yet. I don't want a BEV and most PHEVs don't appeal at all.
So you prefer used models. In which case you will be fine with your ICE well into the 2040s. For me, new cars stopped being interesting somewhere in the mid 2010s when they started morphing into chintzy tech fests with less and less interesting drivetrains and terrible ride quality.
A 2.0 petrol turbo and a petrol V8 will do me for a good few years yet. I don't want a BEV and most PHEVs don't appeal at all.
Not sure what relevance your post has to the OPs. Have you driven an EV for any length of time?
62% think we are not ready. Wow, that's why we have 12 years. The cars and the infrastructure are improving daily, so I'm sure we'll be ready way before then.
I think there is a lot of education required. For example, my wife and I were looking at some new rapid chargers in Falmouth this week and a chap wondered up and started telling us various stories about why EVs aren't great. After a few minutes I said that we've driven over 70k miles over the last 3.5 years in 3 EVs and they've been great. Oh he said, and moved on.
Perhaps a poll of EV owners would be more useful to balance all the negativity and misinformation, but I doubt that would suit The Telegraph's agenda.
I think there is a lot of education required. For example, my wife and I were looking at some new rapid chargers in Falmouth this week and a chap wondered up and started telling us various stories about why EVs aren't great. After a few minutes I said that we've driven over 70k miles over the last 3.5 years in 3 EVs and they've been great. Oh he said, and moved on.
Perhaps a poll of EV owners would be more useful to balance all the negativity and misinformation, but I doubt that would suit The Telegraph's agenda.
I suspect that people of my age or around (49) will cling on to a at least 1 ICE for as long as they can. I’m considering buying a last in the line diesel suv at the end of the decade to allow me the towing practicality (range) that an EV seems a long way from achieving. I suspect RVs for last of the line ICE will remain strong for as long as my gen are alive.
I also think there will be a big opportunity for manufacturers to service older non EV cars and I see some progress in keeping parts in production to facilitate that. However it’ll be a consistent 20% of the population that will continue to keep ICE cars going for as long as possible.
Ultimately I think the hybrid ban will be repealed or at least kicked into the long grass, ICE ban may get delayed in the UK to coincide with EU proposals.
And then there is hydrogen and sustainable fuels to think about .
I also think there will be a big opportunity for manufacturers to service older non EV cars and I see some progress in keeping parts in production to facilitate that. However it’ll be a consistent 20% of the population that will continue to keep ICE cars going for as long as possible.
Ultimately I think the hybrid ban will be repealed or at least kicked into the long grass, ICE ban may get delayed in the UK to coincide with EU proposals.
And then there is hydrogen and sustainable fuels to think about .
Dynion Araf Uchaf said:
I suspect that people of my age or around (49) will cling on to a at least 1 ICE for as long as they can. I’m considering buying a last in the line diesel suv at the end of the decade to allow me the towing practicality (range) that an EV seems a long way from achieving. I suspect RVs for last of the line ICE will remain strong for as long as my gen are alive.
I also think there will be a big opportunity for manufacturers to service older non EV cars and I see some progress in keeping parts in production to facilitate that. However it’ll be a consistent 20% of the population that will continue to keep ICE cars going for as long as possible.
Ultimately I think the hybrid ban will be repealed or at least kicked into the long grass, ICE ban may get delayed in the UK to coincide with EU proposals.
And then there is hydrogen and sustainable fuels to think about .
Sustainable fuels for mainstream use are a non-starter, as is Hydrogen for passenger vehicles. I also think there will be a big opportunity for manufacturers to service older non EV cars and I see some progress in keeping parts in production to facilitate that. However it’ll be a consistent 20% of the population that will continue to keep ICE cars going for as long as possible.
Ultimately I think the hybrid ban will be repealed or at least kicked into the long grass, ICE ban may get delayed in the UK to coincide with EU proposals.
And then there is hydrogen and sustainable fuels to think about .
I think people need to get their heads around the sheer volume of R&D expenditure now going into/planned for electric by all mainstream manufacturers. We are talking several billions of pounds, probably tens of billions when new battery plants and the like are considered. They have certainty in the technology- it is not a whim...
It’ll sort itself out, there probably won’t be much choice left for daily use type cars in 5 year time in the UK that isn’t BEV.
I think the slow down was the knee-jerk reaction of the public to electricity costs. This is 100% understandable if they need to charge publicly but for the many people who have off street parking then dynamic charging options like Ovo Anytime mean this really isn’t a problem.
It’s surprised me just how quickly Diesel has disappeared from many of the small family car segment where it used to be the default not that long ago. Astra, Focus etc. The pace of change is quite something to observe.
When even companies like Alfa Romeo are planning on being EV only by 2027 you know the direction of travel is set.
The Government’s zero emissions vehicle mandate will give things a sizeable shove assuming it doesn’t change hugely when it comes into force at the beginning of next year. With the fines involved, there may well be some significant discounts available for EVs which will help a bit of a reset.
I think the slow down was the knee-jerk reaction of the public to electricity costs. This is 100% understandable if they need to charge publicly but for the many people who have off street parking then dynamic charging options like Ovo Anytime mean this really isn’t a problem.
It’s surprised me just how quickly Diesel has disappeared from many of the small family car segment where it used to be the default not that long ago. Astra, Focus etc. The pace of change is quite something to observe.
When even companies like Alfa Romeo are planning on being EV only by 2027 you know the direction of travel is set.
The Government’s zero emissions vehicle mandate will give things a sizeable shove assuming it doesn’t change hugely when it comes into force at the beginning of next year. With the fines involved, there may well be some significant discounts available for EVs which will help a bit of a reset.
Edited by plfrench on Sunday 7th May 10:40
mtvessel said:
Summary of two long articles in the Telegraph, one yesterday, one today. The changeover from ICE to EVs is not going as smoothly as some would like.
The number of cars on the road over 15 years old 2001 - 1.7m 2022 - 5.3m 2032 - 9.3m (estimate}
The number of cars over 10 years old on the road is 11.8m, in 2028 - 15.4m (estimate) which is 40%
Disruption caused by covid/chip shortage means that 2m vehicles have not been manufactured and sold
62% think the country is not ready for the changeover, 42% think it should be scrapped altogether
All vehicles are too expensive so there is buyer resistance to new, second hand prices are 33% higher than average
The average price of an EV is £61,320 giving a range of 219 miles
The average price of an ICE is £29,018 giving a range of 413 miles
Potential buyers of used EVs are concerned that they will be permanently tied to main dealer servicing
Most drivers are adopting the policy of keeping the current car running regardless of big bills
Manufacturers are hoping that big bills and lack of parts becomes too difficult
Who were they interviewing because that's stupid. The number of cars on the road over 15 years old 2001 - 1.7m 2022 - 5.3m 2032 - 9.3m (estimate}
The number of cars over 10 years old on the road is 11.8m, in 2028 - 15.4m (estimate) which is 40%
Disruption caused by covid/chip shortage means that 2m vehicles have not been manufactured and sold
62% think the country is not ready for the changeover, 42% think it should be scrapped altogether
All vehicles are too expensive so there is buyer resistance to new, second hand prices are 33% higher than average
The average price of an EV is £61,320 giving a range of 219 miles
The average price of an ICE is £29,018 giving a range of 413 miles
Potential buyers of used EVs are concerned that they will be permanently tied to main dealer servicing
Most drivers are adopting the policy of keeping the current car running regardless of big bills
Manufacturers are hoping that big bills and lack of parts becomes too difficult
A pollen filter every 2 years, brake fluid every 3 and coolant every 4 isn't exactly onerous and 99% won't even bother to that.
FreeLitres said:
In these ICE/EV debates, how are the current generation of plug in hybrids classified?
When the Government say there will be no more ICE cars, does that also mean no more PHEVs?
I've just got a PHEV and I'm trying to figure out if I am a goodie or a baddie
Currently post 2035 no more new ICE sales including PHEV. When the Government say there will be no more ICE cars, does that also mean no more PHEVs?
I've just got a PHEV and I'm trying to figure out if I am a goodie or a baddie
PHEV sales still to be allowed from 2030-2035 after pure ICE disallowed, however there is a minimum battery only range for PHEVs needed to comply- I don’t think this range has yet been specified though.
They need to be cheaper, quicker to charge and more charging infrastructure is needed, otherwise they'll never become the default choice for many people. The country simply cannot afford is which is why people are hanging onto their cars for longer.
Last weekend I drove 450 miles, on the way back I popped into the newish Rugby services on M6, which as far as services go, is very nice. There were 10 maybe 15 charging points, all of them occupied, and a queue waiting, the owners looking very bored indeed. At that moment, I thought this cannot be the future!
Last weekend I drove 450 miles, on the way back I popped into the newish Rugby services on M6, which as far as services go, is very nice. There were 10 maybe 15 charging points, all of them occupied, and a queue waiting, the owners looking very bored indeed. At that moment, I thought this cannot be the future!
wormus said:
They need to be cheaper, quicker to charge and more charging infrastructure is needed, otherwise they'll never become the default choice for many people. The country simply cannot afford is which is why people are hanging onto their cars for longer.
Last weekend I drove 450 miles, on the way back I popped into the newish Rugby services on M6, which as far as services go, is very nice. There were 10 maybe 15 charging points, all of them occupied, and a queue waiting, the owners looking very bored indeed. At that moment, I thought this cannot be the future!
The industry have stated they will double the number of chargers by the end of the year. Whether they hit their target remains to be seen but if there are queues that's a pretty good commercial incentive.Last weekend I drove 450 miles, on the way back I popped into the newish Rugby services on M6, which as far as services go, is very nice. There were 10 maybe 15 charging points, all of them occupied, and a queue waiting, the owners looking very bored indeed. At that moment, I thought this cannot be the future!
By 2030 charge times will have reduced as battery / charging technology improves.
Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff