Wednesday 23rd July

UK car production plunges amid wider uncertainty

Pandemic aside, an 11.9 per cent drop for the first half of 2025 is the worst return since 1953

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There were 417,232 new vehicles made in the UK between January and June 2025; excluding the Covid lockdown era, that’s the fewest cars and vans produced here in a half-year period since 1953. Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, called the results “depressing”. 

The causes, admittedly, were all foreseeable. Van numbers were down because Vauxhall closed its Luton factory; tariffs have been reduced with the US, but are still in place - see JLR’s recent redundancy announcement for further proof of the wider impact of the stalling effect. Add that to the general uncertainty around the new car market right now, particularly when it comes to electric car subsidies, and it’s easy to see why numbers are down. 

For the six months from January to the end of June 2025, there were 385,810 cars built in Britain, with 76.9 per cent of those for export (the US still being the biggest market, with more than half going there). While for the same period in 2024 that percentage was 74.5 per cent, it was of a higher overall number (416,074), meaning 309,917 going overseas against 296,708 this year. Vans has taken the really big hit, though, down 45.4 per cent year-on-year from 57,509 to 31,422. 

It’s not all bad news, however. June 2025 was up on June 2024 by 6.6 per cent, at 66,317 cars against 62,331, although that month last year was an especially poor one - down 26.6 per cent on June ‘23 because of model year updates and supply chain problems. The share of electrified cars (encompassing hybrid, PHEV and EV) was at its highest point ever, and that will surely be expected to climb with the announcement of the latest Electric Car Grant. 

For the year, it’s estimated that overall UK vehicle output will drop around 15 per cent to 755,000 units; for 2026, a modest increase of six per cent is forecast, which would tip us over 800,000 cars. Some way off the million units made in 2021.

Mike Hawes added: “Global economic uncertainty and trade protectionism have taken their toll on automotive production across the globe, with the UK no exception. The figures are not, therefore, unexpected but remain very disappointing. However, there are foundations for a return to growth. The industry is moving to the technologies that will be the future of mobility, our engineering excellence, highly-skilled workforce and global reputation are strengths, and we have an Industrial Strategy with advanced manufacturing and automotive at its core. With rapid delivery and the right conditions, UK Automotive can reverse the current decline and deliver the jobs, economic growth and decarbonisation that Britain needs.”  

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• Reality bites: the plug-in EV grant returns to the UK
  
• SMMT outlines plan to protect small volume OEMs

[Wardy78]

Conspiracy theorists will conspire, but this is really just clickbait.

Vauxhall and US tariffs are the answer. Total UK car sales are up.

Sad for UK manufacturing, but hardly a surprise. This is one of the drivers behind the EV grant thing.

[ST330]

What "rapid delivery and right conditions" are required for JLR to open the pipeline for the reported 64,000 electric RRs ?

That would turn the reduced manufacturing numbers around.

[corcoran]

Wardy78 said:

Conspiracy theorists will conspire, but this is really just clickbait.

Vauxhall and US tariffs are the answer. Total UK car sales are up.

Sad for UK manufacturing, but hardly a surprise. This is one of the drivers behind the EV grant thing.

Hardly. It's about supply chain availability, just in time delivery; as well as 'country of origin' for finished products (an engine, a whole car) and the tarriffs that apply to/from those components with our biggest market being *check notes*

oh yes, Europe.

[Tallywagger]

Well what did everyone expect when our government bought in badly thought through EV mandates, and China controls most of the raw materials necessary for battery production? Hence, now we are being flooded with cheap Chinese EV's to the detriment of our legacy Western manufacturers who simply can't compete with a cheap Chinese workforce propped up by many gross abuses of human rights on an industrial scale. Like everything with this total Conservative/Labour sh*tshow, a nation own-goal on steroids!

And anyone who needs their eyes opening should watch the 'JayEmm on Cars' video regarding the highly unpalatable business practices of BYD. Truly extrodinary!

[C69]

Wardy78 said:

Conspiracy theorists will conspire, but this is really just clickbait.

What conspiracy? And why is the story clickbait? It's merely reporting figures from the SMMT.

Wardy78 said:

Total UK car sales are up.

So the country's balance of payments is going to be worse than it otherwise would have been, because most of those cars were imports.

Wardy78 said:

Sad for UK manufacturing, but hardly a surprise. This is one of the drivers behind the EV grant thing.

Agreed it's hardly a surprise. When the UK's motor industry is almost exclusively foreign-owned, people shouldn't be shocked when production is shifted abroad to suit the needs of those foreign businesses (Vauxhall Luton being an obvious example of this).

I'm not sure that the government's latest EV grant is going to have much effect on EV manufacturing in the UK, though. Mini might switch some EV production from China to Oxford earlier than was originally planned, but that's about it.

[Tallywagger]

C69 said:

So the country's balance of payments is going to be worse than it otherwise would have been, because most of those cars were imports.

Electric cars are not the only imports hovering up taxpayer money left right and centre. I believe that just the interest on the fast increasing national debt already costs taxpayers over £100bn a year in interest payments. That's 1/2 of the total NHS budget!

[Wardy78]

C69 said:

Wardy78 said:

Conspiracy theorists will conspire, but this is really just clickbait.

What conspiracy? And why is the story clickbait? It's merely reporting figures from the SMMT.

The example immediately above yours as a start. Plus the bingo call for Brexit.

C69 said:

Wardy78 said:

Total UK car sales are up.

So the country's balance of payments is going to be worse than it otherwise would have been, because most of those cars were imports.

Yes, but that not a new phenomenon is it? And certainly not solely, or even substantially down to cars.

C69 said:

Wardy78 said:

Sad for UK manufacturing, but hardly a surprise. This is one of the drivers behind the EV grant thing.

Agreed it's hardly a surprise. When the UK's motor industry is almost exclusively foreign-owned, people shouldn't be shocked when production is shifted abroad to suit the needs of those foreign businesses (Vauxhall Luton being an obvious example of this).

Again, that's not new to this year though?

C69 said:

I'm not sure that the government's latest EV grant is going to have much effect on EV manufacturing in the UK, though. Mini might switch some EV production from China to Oxford earlier than was originally planned, but that's about it.

It more about disincentivising cars coming from the other side of the world.

[mrclav]

Tallywagger said:

Well what did everyone expect when our government bought in badly thought through EV mandates, and China controls most of the raw materials necessary for battery production? Hence, now we are being flooded with cheap Chinese EV's to the detriment of our legacy Western manufacturers who simply can't compete with a cheap Chinese workforce propped up by many gross abuses of human rights on an industrial scale. Like everything with this total Conservative/Labour sh*tshow, a nation own-goal on steroids!

And anyone who needs their eyes opening should watch the 'JayEmm on Cars' video regarding the highly unpalatable business practices of BYD. Truly extrodinary!

It's funny, The British Empire's territorial/financial peak is generally considered to be around 1920 and we all know the human rights atrocities committed back then were FAR worse than now. As I see it China is simply following suit, having learned from what the British did, just over 100 years later.

[oilit]

We are sleepwalking into a very dark period, cheap Chinese cars, powered by electricity - supplied by new nuclear power stations - being built with - whose expertise and technology - I read Chinese - Chinese General Nuclear.

Most of the stuff sold on Amazon and TikTok is Chinese made and or imitations of the real products (according to a report today on cosmetics)

Abandon europe and buy stuff from China who buy very little from the UK in comparison (In 2022, the total trade between the UK and China reached £114.6 billion, with UK imports from China totaling £74.0 billion and exports to China at £40.6 billion, according to the Office for National Statistics.) I guarantee that number has got worse since 2022.

The UK used to be good at engineering and design - concorde, channel tunnel etc - what have we achieved recently? JLR and Mini will have no UK manufacturing within 15 years I suspect.

Edited by oilit on Thursday 24th July 16:06

[nickchallis92]

I love exporting our emissions to other countries, shouting about how little carbon we emit, then go home to find out we're bankrupt.

[Twinair]

Oh look, car manufacturing is donald-ducked in the UK

Who would have thought it…?

Still, I am sure the last Government, this Government and the next Government will all prove equally useless and inept at doing anything about it

It’s almost like Governments don’t really want people driving cars… I wonder if there is anything behind it?

Nah… I am sure they really want people to gad about - emitting - just like they always used to, meanwhile - on the other side of the world…

Sadly, the MG & BYD EV peddlers and pedants - will see the demise of the automobile. Soft power - it works, and works well.

[Tallywagger]

nickchallis92 said:

I love exporting our emissions to other countries, shouting about how little carbon we emit, then go home to find out we're bankrupt.

Net Zero (if we insist on continuing to chase the non-achievable unicorn) will be the economic and social ruination of the UK and Europe. Thank goodness the USA have finally seen the light.

Still at least some people will get rich from it. The billions in subsidies (taxpayer cash that could have been spent on roads, schools and hospitals), keeps pouring into already rich land owners renting out their land for solar and wind farms, and the renewables industry, mostly dominated by foreign firms. And the Chinese of course who supply almost all of our solar panels.

[Tallywagger]

Twinair said:

It s almost like Governments don't really want people driving cars I wonder if there is anything behind it?

Nah I am sure they really want people to gad about - emitting - just like they always used to, meanwhile - on the other side of the world

Yeah just look up UN Agenda 2030 that our government signed us up to in 2015 without ever voting for it (they kept that one quiet didn't they).

When you realise that WE (the formerly free and prosperous native Western people) are the carbon that they want to reduce, everything else starts to make sense.

[CH80]

corcoran said:

Wardy78 said:

Conspiracy theorists will conspire, but this is really just clickbait.

Vauxhall and US tariffs are the answer. Total UK car sales are up.

Sad for UK manufacturing, but hardly a surprise. This is one of the drivers behind the EV grant thing.

Hardly. It's about supply chain availability, just in time delivery; as well as 'country of origin' for finished products (an engine, a whole car) and the tarriffs that apply to/from those components with our biggest market being *check notes*

oh yes, Europe.

Thank Boris, and the inept Conservative party for Brexit...

[Tallywagger]

CH80 said:

Thank Boris, and the inept Conservative party for Brexit...

Ahhh yes of course, any excuse to grind the Brexit axe. But car production in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etc. is also down, down by much more than in the UK. Must be Brexit

[The Pistonsdead]

Twinair said:

Oh look, car manufacturing is donald-ducked in the UK

Who would have thought it ?

Still, I am sure the last Government, this Government and the next Government will all prove equally useless and inept at doing anything about it

It s almost like Governments don t really want people driving cars I wonder if there is anything behind it?

Nah I am sure they really want people to gad about - emitting - just like they always used to, meanwhile - on the other side of the world

Sadly, the MG & BYD EV peddlers and pedants - will see the demise of the automobile. Soft power - it works, and works well.

Interesting post

[119]

It’s ok, we have a great trade deal with India now.

[CH80]

Tallywagger said:

CH80 said:

Thank Boris, and the inept Conservative party for Brexit...

Ahhh yes of course, any excuse to grind the Brexit axe. But car production in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etc. is also down, down by much more than in the UK. Must be Brexit

Yes sadly it is: while there was a decline in the early part of the period (2019-2020), the EU largely recovered, with production in 2023 reaching 12.2 million vehicles.

2.9% decline in EU, compared to a whopping 11.6% here in the UK

But do keep you head under the sand. Denial is bliss.

[JJJ.]

Tallywagger said:

CH80 said:

Thank Boris, and the inept Conservative party for Brexit...

Ahhh yes of course, any excuse to grind the Brexit axe. But car production in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etc. is also down, down by much more than in the UK. Must be Brexit

Brexit. It's obviously helped car exports and thus production numbers, no?

[Krisswfc]

That’s a surprise, Nissan on its arse, Honda gone, JLR aren’t making Jags, defender made in Europe, Toyota only making Corolla estates, it’s very difficult to buy British anymore and the U.K. government giving electric grants only on budget electric models is playing into chinas hands.